Birchtree's Account Talk

[jkenjohnson]

Birchtree, can you explain why the I fund gives us half the gains and all the losses? I cannot figure it out. We have to IFT by 1200 eastern, but we get paid based on the prices in the evening (4 or 5 hours after europe closes) I am moving back to the S fund and will probably not buy the I fund anymore, because the pricing just doesn't make sense to me, but I would like your take on it.
PS sorry for htjacking your thread.

Birch is probably busy gathering tax material. I think you answered your own question. If you don't understand how the fund reacts to the market, don't buy it. I don't buy into the F because I lose money most of the time. Stick with the S or even the C (less volatile). P.S. I like your name for some reason (Guppie).

 

[Birchtree]

The I fund is subject to corrections on the dollar - but that is not a reason to not own foreign stocks. I'm a global equity player. The dollar valuation play is designed to mess up day traders and eventually all the money comes back - that's why it varies in price on any given day. I'm currently running in front of the train that seems to be gathering up more steam - trying to buy some holiday cheer: CX, KBH, DHI, BBG, TRN, AIG, ATO, HHS, SXI. So many wall flowers that need a comfortable home while they grow and bloom into roses.

 

[WorkFE]

Is EK done, should I stick a fork in it?

 

[Birchtree]

If you can buy several thousand shares of EK you might have a chance to make some capital gain. AT $0.65 you know how much you can lose. I remember buying RT back in '08 at $0.89 and ended up making good gains.

 

[WorkFE]

I actually dug around in the sofa and found enough to pick-up 1000 shares

What the heck. I can always apply for food stamps.

 

[Birchtree]

Could it be the I fund is getting ready to make my ears bleed with a solid melt-up? A short squeeze like we haven't seen in years is shaping up. I'm so bullish I need to throw some more dollars down the well. You have to be in to win.

 

[goforit]

Could it be the I fund is getting ready to make my ears bleed with a solid melt-up? A short squeeze like we haven't seen in years is shaping up. I'm so bullish I need to throw some more dollars down the well. You have to be in to win.

why would the I fund be a good move if the dollar's value is rising and the euro is falling and showing signs of more weakness? also wasn't it just a couple of weeks or days ago the euro nations were saying something about the euro is at a point they may consider ending its use?? just asking

 

[Birchtree]

GE is leading the Dow - I need more of it in my portfolio. The list for tomorrow is ready to go and having patience is difficult. The NYSE is kicking up the dust today.

 

[Birchtree]

Goforit,

You have to think in terms of economic exports and a weak euro is a blessing to the European exporters.

 

[goforit]

Goforit,

You have to think in terms of economic exports and a weak euro is a blessing to the European exporters.

i suppose, its kind of like when the euro was hitting the 1.43+ it was hard for Americans to travel because the exchange rate was so bad, therefore it cost more in US dollars to travel to the euro nations. so the reverse would be if the euro keeps losing value and the dollar gains strength it would be cheaper for Americans to tavel based on less US dollars to do so. same goes to ship(export)goods would mean the higher valued US dollar could strengthen the weaken euro economy in the long run but maybe not the short term? just trying to think and that usually gets me in trouble so i throw my thoughts here to make sure i am learning this stuff right. thanks birch

 

[Birchtree]

The I fund is a proxy exporter into the emerging markets which continue to show growth. I'm adding to my banking positions tomorrow - they are starting to stink a little less.

 

[cak165]

BT, I admire your enthusiasm for being continuously being a bull on these markets, but this rug is going to be pulled from underneath all of us one day, probably when we least expect it. There are so many uncertainties out there that may work against any one way trade, long or short. I think people have to rely on multiple strategies, diversify (even inside their TSP accounts), and be very nimble - lock small profits when they can and get out quickly when the the markets tank. You may be able to do so in your other accounts but people reading your comments who are mainly invested with TSP funds may not have that luxury.

On a different note, I've been on the site for less than a year and have been recently following your thread here, I'm curious to lean about your exit strategy? What would make you sell with so many stocks in your account?

 

[Birchtree]

I only like to sell when I get a margin call. Otherwise why would I want to sell any of my wall flowers. I might consider taling some profits at a Dow of 17,000 - until then I'm a builder and accumulator of equities.

 

[Birchtree]

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2011/12/bond-yields-are-ignoring-good-economic.html

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/bullish-sentiment-tumbles

Balanced sentiment prolongs any bull's ultimate life.

 

[Sensei]

Birchtree,

I know you are a fan of oil and energy stocks. What are your thoughts on uranium? Ever since the Fukushima disaster, I've been DCA'ing into URA (a uranium ETF, which BTW pays a dividend) and Cameco (CCJ - mining company dealing mostly with uranium, also dividend stock). They have been absolute albatrosses around my neck this year, but my hope is that a few years from now they will take off and soar. Am I terribly misguided?

 

[Birchtree]

The NRC just approved a new nuclear power plant design that has many incorporated safety features. There is one being built in S.C and another in Georgia. I'd hold any uranium positions and keep adding to build a base. I've been buying CX for similar reasons.

 

[Birchtree]

The MA (200) at 1259.59 will be penetrated before noon and then perhaps becomes support. I need to go buy some bank stocks.

 

[Birchtree]

Chasing Ferdinand and eating hoof dust which tastes like mincemeat pie and buying: STI, RF, KEY, BLX, BCS, AXS, AVY, CR. Patiently waiting on the golden cross.

 

[Birchtree]

A few more wall flower nibbles before I get ready to head for Hilton Head: TRW, BMY, ELN. And don't forget Kwanzaa is approaching.