Birchtree's Account Talk

[Warrenlm]

Are you supporting Joe Kernan's prediction for a 30% market this year?

 

[Birchtree]

I think a 30% gain on the Dow from here is around 16,000 - I'm on record for Dow at 17,000. If I can get that level then wealth will flow in my direction. I've only made two purchases so far today: MCP, RES. I'm thinking about catching another bite on BAC before it reaches $6.

 

[Birchtree]

I just ate up my 30 free trades for January but that won't hold me back much going forward the rest of the month: ALB, KEG, AE, GAS, SPN, BAC. Let's bump up the R2K and break the VIX below 22 into 21.34 before the day ends. Tech should help push the Dow up.

 

[Birchtree]

The correlation between stocks and the euro has been strong in recent months. In the current environment, when the euro strengthens, stocks have tended to come along for the ride. This scenario may be changing and the markets may become correlated to a stronger dollar. A strong dollar historically has ment a stronger GDP and a stronger stock market...just saying. A stronger dollar against the euro will help the I fund companies with their exports - the I fund is a proxy into the emerging markets.

 

[Birchtree]

"We are currently taking a somewhat neutral/wait-and-see approach until we see how the S&P 500 acts above 1285."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/23861/is-the-fed-bailing-out-europe

 

[Birchtree]

"The economy may not be growing very fast, but it remains very dynamic and adaptable, and that alone is reason to remain optimistic about the future."

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2012/01/labor-market-continues-to-improve.html

 

[Sensei]

How do you like those kangaroo tails the last couple days? Boing!

 

[Warrenlm]

Job report surprises to upside. Rocket up follows?

 

[Birchtree]

Initially it looks like sell the good news and burn the open - just what a bull market likes. I'll probably do some wall flower shopping later today.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Initially it looks like sell the good news and burn the open - just what a bull market likes. I'll probably do some wall flower shopping later today.

I don't get it either.

 

[hotwings]

Initially it looks like sell the good news and burn the open - just what a bull market likes. I'll probably do some wall flower shopping later today.

Are you still liking BTU at these levels?

 

[Birchtree]

I like all coal related equities - my last buy in price on BTU was $35.77. You might look at some of the coal transporters such as GWR, TRN, KEX, GBR, OSG. WAB.

 

[Birchtree]

"Balanced sentiment prolongs any bull's ultimate life."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-if-the-2009-bull-market-is-still-alive-2012-01-06

 

[Birchtree]

I made a mistake on a coal transporter - Greenbrier should be GBX and not GBR.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm having fun buying a few more wall flowers: TRW, AGCO, GBX, T, DLX, SDRL. Waiting for the SPX is approach 1285.

 

[hotwings]

Thanks BT...

 

[Birchtree]

"So far, the early days of 2012 appear to be the beginning days of a broad based rally."

http://greenfaucet.com/technical-analysis/look-at-that-breakout/60437

 

[Geaux4it]

Hey Birch- I know how you like to follow the VIX. What do you think will result with the VIX closing below 21 for the first time since July? I think I know the answer but had to ask nonetheless.

 

[Birchtree]

I won't be concerned about a potential intermediate term market top until the VIX seeks the 15 level. The bulls are safe for now.

My oceanic account performed well the last four trading days: +$92K, +$12K, +$12K, -$7K for a sweet gain of +$109K. Ah if only I could do the same every week.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Jobs report was no surprise...its been going on a long time.

FWM, since you didn't link a source, where did you get that from and does it go back to 2000 (heck, even 1992)?

Thanks