Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

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According to Vickers Weekly Insider Report, published by Argus Research, recent data is suggesting a bullish environment. Insider behavior during the market's September - October correction would have been very bearish had insiders continued to sell their companies stock at the same rate that they had during the summer rally. When the September-October correction was in full propress insider selling had begun to ease. Vickers is reporting that the ratio of insider selling to insider purchases had declined from 6.98 prior to the onset of the correction to 3.14. As of the most recent issue of the Vickers Report, dated Oct. 24, this ratio had fallen to an even lower level of 1.52. Such a strong improvement in insider sentiment in the wake of relatively mild market weakness appears to be a strong indication that the broad market averages should improve significantly over the next several weeks.

Show me the DTA at 3872.

 

[Birchtree]

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Putnam Investments, a Boston provider of mutual funds and retirement plans and a unit of Marsh & McLennan Cos. recently released a study regarding investing. They imply that in retirement investing, savings size aids the nest egg more than returns, it seems. For investors who want to see their retirement savings grow, there are more important things to worry about than mutual-fund performance. Smart fund investing can certainly help boost long-term returns, but not nearly as well as other factors - most notably, an increase in contributions, according to the study.

The study's finding - that people can build more wealth by saving more - is somewhat evident: if you double your savings, you stand to double youe nest egg. Yet people often fail mto heed that basic advice, focusing instead on whether they are in the best-performing funds. Meanwhile, the best fund strategy can yield results that are surprisingly close to the worst fund strategy, the study shows. The big surprise was how little of an impact improvements in fund investing made over a 15-year period.

Fund performance becomes a virtually meaningless statistic when compared to the impact of a higher deferral rate. In fact, sticking with poor-performing funds over the entire period would have been more profitable than switching to index funds or the top-tier funds of 1990. The best investment strategy seems to be rotating into the best performing funds every three years.

 

[Birchtree]

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It's time for another oceanic update. I ended the week at $876K which was actually showing a gain of $12K. It was a terrible month - just the reverse of July. In the month of July I cleared $63K and gave back $65K for the month of October. Simply treading water for the last 4 months - the only positive was I was doing dollar cost averaging with my dividend reinvestments - so not all was lost. The month of November will prove to be profitable if the last two days are any indication of what may be ahead. And things are starting to look up again for the tugboat account. If you might be interested the week looked like this: +$18,000, -$4000, -$4000, -$16000, and finally +$18,000. If the rally continues I look forward to pushing around $25K per day - nah, just dreaming here. I did notice the Dow Transports were up 73.65 points to close at 3815.46 - closing in on my target of 3872. Whew.

 

[Sr]

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Birchtree wrote:

Putnam Investments, a Boston provider of mutual funds and retirement plans and a unit of Marsh & McLennan Cos.

It is often important to note the messenger with the message.Here is an outfit, a Fidelity wannbe, slapped with fines for ripping off the innocent, famous for peddling loaded poor to mediocre funds and products with outsized fees, telling us to forget return and focus on sending more money it can charge management fees on a daily basis. Yeah sure, the outflow of $ since it was caught must be really hurting and asset boosting performance ain't anything to write home about either. Poor CEO wants to know how else to increase therevenue and earn back all those penalty paid to date. Caveat Emptor. Run, don't walk, away from this outfit. TSP is saint compared to this slime.

 

[Birchtree]

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A little something for the I fund lovers.

A computer-system failure forced the Tokyo Stock Exchange to suspend trading of most stocks for several hours yesterday, exposing the vulnerability of one of the world's largest exchanges at a time when it is striving to deal with a sudden surge in trading activity. The shutdown affected cash trading of the 2401 domestic and foreign stocks listed on the TSE.

The confusion didn't damp the market's bullish mood, however. The 225-share Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.9% or 261.36 points, to end at 13867.86, its highest level since May 2001. The malfunction, the most serious for the TSE in eight years, shows how the exchange is struggling to deal with a booming market after a decade and a half of an economic slump in Japan. After shrinking for years, the volume of transactions suddenly picked up this year, helped by aggressive foreign investors who are encouraged by Japan's economic recovery and the increase in individual investors trading activity online.

The average daily trading volume of large-capitalization stocks reached a record 2.89 billion shares in September, up 81% from a year earlier. The general issue is there is lack of capacity to keep up with the volume of trade because Japan's market has been recovering and setting record volumes.

Much of the trading activity appears to be coming from overseas. There has been a binge of overseas buying-from investors hunting for better returns as Western markets have remained mostly flat. Foreign investors have been net buyers of Japanese stocks for 19 straight weeks. For foreign investors, the percentage of Japanese stocks in their portfolios is about to reach the highest level in the past five years. Hooah!

 

[Birchtree]

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A few kind words from my friends at Merrill:

We believe that the Federal Reserve will be cutting rates in the second half of next year, just as it did in the second half of 1995 in the aftermath of a very similar inflation scare, commodity-price pressures, a seemingly tight labor market, monetary tightening, and a sloppy stock market. Moreover, we believe that investors will be talking about deflation again this time next year. Why? The current risks point that way. There is a risk of a correction in the housing market, the Fed is at risk of overdoing the tightening cycle; and there is a risk that the personal savings rate will jump higher, which could cut consumption growth in half. The housing market may be set to lose an important subsidy, the mortgage interest deduction.

We could understand the latest surge in inflation concerns if, in fact, there were signs of excess demand in the labor market. But there are no such signs. What we find striking is that wage and salary share of the national income pie barely turned up this cycle, and it is now turning down. That may be great news for corporate profit margins, but it is clearly deflationary.

 

[Birchtree]

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A few comments from TWSJ:

Despite foreign stocks' long run, many Wall Street strategists and financial planners are telling clients to increase their exposure to international equities. Driving the new recommendations are expectations for continued strong growth overseas and pessimism about U.S. stocks' returns, which could be crimped by rising interest rates and concerns about a pickup in inflation. U.S. investors continue to pour money into overseas funds, with investment flows this year already surpassing those of 2004.

Standard & Poor's investment policy committee raised its recommended international stock allocation to 20% from 15% in late October. J.P. Morgan Private Bank, a unit of J.P. Morgan Chase boosted its suggested holdings of foreign stocks to around 33% from 20% about two months ago. Wachovia Corp's Wachovia Securities unit lowere its recommended U.S. small cap allocation about two months ago in favor of Japan and other Asian countries. Merrill Lynch's wealth management strategy group has slowly raised its foreign stock allocation over the past 12 to 18 months and may boost it further in the near future.

The average international stock fund delivered annualized returns of 22% over the past three years, beating the S&P 500 stock index by nearly 10 percentage points. This outperformance was helped in large measure by a weakening dollar, which magnifies returns from overseas funds. This year, even with the dollar having reversed course, those overseas portfolios are up 9.6%, which handily beats the 1.7% return for the S&P.

More than $82 billion has flowed in to international and global stock funds so far this year, already topping last year's total. By contrast, less than $34 billion has flowed in to U.S. stock funds in 2005, down from $122 billion for all of 2004. While the gap in returns between international and domestic stocks could narrow next year, many strategists see foreign stocks maintaining the lead while U.S. equities post single digit returns.

Still, individual investors interested in foreign markets should step carefully. In coming years, these stocks aren't likely to outpace U.S. markets at the rate they have of late, some analysts say. Valuations in some countries are on the rise, making them less attractive relative to U.S. equities. (Keep that in mind friends)

 

[Birchtree]

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I have a personal dilemma as a veteran that I have no embarassment sharing on this approaching Veterans' Day. Did anyone see the skanky draft dodger that was in the White House the other day being honored by President Bush. Does anyone remember Cassious Clay - that sorry loud mouth coward. Why does Bush think he has to kiss the ass of this coward and embarrass those of us who did serve in Vietnam. I personally think he made a grave blunder - let Kerry or some other fool pay tribute there are plenty of them available. It's just another jab in the back of those that have an appreciation for the good this country stands for.

 

[rokid]

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As another Vietnam era veteran (1969-71), I'll have to respectfully disagree. I think Ali showed a lot of courage by standing up for his beliefs andaccepting the consequences. He could have spent the war touring with USO shows.

I don't have any problem with people who were against the Vietnam war - it was a stupid waste of money and lives (ours and the Vietnamese). I do have a problem with the"chicken hawks"who talked up the war and thenavoided active duty and the consequences, i.e. Canada or jail.

 

[Birchtree]

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Rokid,

Nov'67 to July'69 - I respect your opinion. You earned the right to offer it. We agree to disagree - peace be still.

Dennis

 

[rokid]

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Dennis,

And you certainly earned the right to your opinion.

Sep 69 to Apr 71. I must have been your replacement. ----Rokid

 

[Spaf]

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Vietnam! That was a long time ago!

My new outlook is that .....I have fun being me!

JF, CC, and the rest are the past!

However, for old time sake try: http://www.chu65nang67.us/nam/vietnam.html

Rgds! Spaf

 

[JOVARN]

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Arrived in country Feb 70Tay Ninh then off to Hue

To those who avoided going, I wish I had it to do over. I may not have gone either. Those that protested, I applaud your efforts as you facilitated the end of one of the biggest disgraces in our nation’s history. To all the politicians who sold out. I believe that one day you will pay.

My little soap box

Joe

 

[Birchtree]

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Dogdaddy would remind me as part of good manners that when I pummel a cockroach I at least owe him the courtesy of spelling his name correctly : Cassius Marcellus Clay.

 

[Soldat]

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I applaud all those who fought in Vietnam. I honor those 58,000 who died and the 300,000 who were wounded. And I am proud to be a military citizen of a nation that does not allow the red threat of communism, with their blood red banners, to go unchallenged. Communism has killed over 100 million people and would kill many more if no one had the courage to stand and fight.

 

[Soldat]

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And on this note, any man who dodges a draft or refuses service should never be allowed to enjoy freedom in this country again.

"Better to die on one's feet than to live on one's knees."

- Dolores Ibarruri (1936)

 

[rokid]

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Soldat wrote:

"Better to die on one's feet than to live on one's knees."

- Dolores Ibarruri (1936)

Dolores Ibarruri was one of the founders of the Spanish Communist Party.Her son, Rubén,died fighting for theRed Armyin the Battle of Stalingrad.She received the Lenin Peace Prize in 1964 and the Order of Lenin in 1965. She wasalso honorary president of the Spanish Communist Party until her death in 1989.

Apparently, another version of thequote is:

"The Spanish people would rather die on its feet than live on its knees."

 

[Greg]

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"Better to die on one's feet than to live on one's knees." -- Emiliano Zapata, 1910, Dolores Ibarruri, 1936, Albert Camus, 1951, Joseph Heller, 1961, Mordechai Anielewicz,1943, Warsaw Ghetto, Poland

 

[Soldat]

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I am glad that the fault is in the quote and not my reasoning.

 

[Quips]

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Soldat wrote:And I am proud to be a military citizen of a nation that does not allow the red threat of communism, with their blood red banners, to go unchallenged. Communism has killed over 100 million people and would kill many more if no one had the courage to stand and fight.

____________________________________________________________________

LOL LOL

One of America's largest trading partners is mainland China and its government is communist through and through.

That China is buying increasing amounts of US debt while our trade deficit with them snowballs. That China would swallow up Taiwan at the first opportunity and that China subsidizes a North Korea that most believe have several nuclear bombs.

That China restricts its citizens from free speech, press and religion.

It would seem that so long as the West canprofit fromsuch a system, there is no problem with it.

It will only be a matter of time until China will use such leverage not only against its own people, but against those Western interests/assets thatit increasing owns.