Birchtree's Account Talk

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I really want my asset bubble to make me wealthy. Will mom and pop push stock prices back into bubble territory for the third time in little more than a decade - please do it for me. There is nothing fundamental that I can really see on the horizon that could stop the rally in the stock market. Corporate earnings and sales have been better than expected with many companies raising quarterly dividends and announcing plans to buy back shares. Yup, stocks could easily rise another 43% if investors assume a P/E multiple of 19 times - currently at around 15.
 
Birchtree said:
FAB1,

Roughly 60% of today's S&P 500 earnings are actually generated outside the U.S. Eventually the shift in market leadership will take place, and when it does, the advantage that large-cap has over small-cap, and value over growth, will be enormous.
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Birch - that sounds good its not so much that I dont believe this, it is just not happening

That makes me wonder is this sort of talk wishful thinking on the part of those who stand to profit from Large Caps? - is it more of a "wag the dog" speculation? Like, Lets try to make this happen by saying it will?

anyway time will tell I will have to see results before making the C fund my "go-to" choice.
 
The VIX has had about a 40% drop in a week from 31 to 17.68. I'm not nervous yet but a similar drop into the 14 level will have my radar up. If we can hold the gains today I'm in flower buying accumulation mode ready to deploy next week. This bull is not going to run away from me as long as I have my new balance running shoes.
 
It was a good week for the oceanic account even if the tugboat (TSP) gave up some gains today. Here is what happened on a daily basis: +$88K, -$15K, +$16K, +$34K, +$26K for a grand total of +$149K. My margin account has no limits as the rules are written so currently whenever I reach flower buying power the money is made available to spend - currently that would theoretically leave me with funds of $2.3M - will I get to it, you can bet on it. Ferdinand says we are going much higher and I'm a buyer all the way up starting again if I'm lucky next week. What is perhaps more encouraging is that 5% declines do not usually result in a further 10% decline, and a bear market is even less likely - so says Barry Ritholtz. Since 1940 there has only been one 10% correction or greater in a bull market - we've already had a 16% correction in 2010 - but I'm keeping my sacrificial lamb chop account fresh incase of emergency - but until then it's full speed ahead.
 
Birchtree said:
The VIX has had about a 40% drop in a week from 31 to 17.68. I'm not nervous yet but a similar drop into the 14 level will have my radar up. If we can hold the gains today I'm in flower buying accumulation mode ready to deploy next week. This bull is not going to run away from me as long as I have my new balance running shoes.
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Yes gotta love where the VIX finished the week at. It's hovering right below the 20, 50 and 100 EMA. Plenty of EMA support and encouraging economic reports for it to go no where but down. I'm definitely content riding this out the last week of March.
 
I now need to keep my eyes wide open for a possible spike top - most blow off tops, the last hurrah at the end of a rally and the beginning of another pullback, are on wildly high volume and are huge moves. Watch for the CBOE put/call ratio to slip below the 0.40 level. The stock market has become, if anything, a liquidity gauge first and a discounting machine second. The fundamental that matters most is how much money is flowing into the machine. There is still $200B left in the Fed's QE2 program to hit the markets between now and June. These are my wall of worry issues. And as a reminder, the Jupiter and Uranus transit into Aries is likely to be bullish for stocks into the middle of the year.
 
Birchtree said:
I now need to keep my eyes wide open for a possible spike top - most blow off tops, the last hurrah at the end of a rally and the beginning of another pullback, are on wildly high volume and are huge moves. Watch for the CBOE put/call ratio to slip below the 0.40 level. The stock market has become, if anything, a liquidity gauge first and a discounting machine second. The fundamental that matters most is how much money is flowing into the machine. There is still $200B left in the Fed's QE2 program to hit the markets between now and June. These are my wall of worry issues. And as a reminder, the Jupiter and Uranus transit into Aries is likely to be bullish for stocks into the middle of the year.
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lol, thanks cuz, he said uranus, in conjuction with transit.

you getting ready to move it?
 
burrocrat said:
lol, thanks cuz, he said uranus, in conjuction with transit.

you getting ready to move it?
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if you do give me a heads up, let me get my camera. it'd be like a tsp tsunami everyone selling at the same time, our own little flash crash, probably trigger the al gore rythms.

priceless.
 
Gold is soaring to an all time high. Oil is on the rise. The stock market has been booming for two years now. Does it concern you that the commodities are rising alongside stocks. This makes no sense.
 
rcknfrewld said:
Gold is soaring to an all time high. Oil is on the rise. The stock market has been booming for two years now. Does it concern you that the commodities are rising alongside stocks. This makes no sense.
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Makes sense to me. The confidence in the bonds market was shaken to the core during the recession. It was supposed to be far less risky than stocks and but that reality was shattered.

There will always be a huge market for "safe" investments that meet and or exceed inflation. Gold currently enjoys a big marketing campaign to promote itself as that "safe" alternative. Still can't watch commercial TV without hearing about the importance of buying gold.

You've got a lot of fear out there of getting hurt again. Plus, more and more boomers are going into retirement every year. You know they're not going to be chancing equities.
 
rcknfrewld said:
Gold is soaring to an all time high. Oil is on the rise. The stock market has been booming for two years now. Does it concern you that the commodities are rising alongside stocks. This makes no sense.
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If industries and business are expanding you can expect commodities to rise on demand. I would highly recommend you follow some specific commodities for hints at the future, as many will not only rise with stocks, but will lead them higher or lower, such as copper due to its widespread industrial use in a variety of industry sectors.
 
This feels good today - the current rally has taken on a quality reminiscent of 1995, 1998/99, 2003 and 2009. In these instances, it took bulls to make a bull market. The VIX is playing a little head game today. A break in the VIX below 15.00 will put us back at a level not seen since July 2007 - think of the possible ramifications.
 
I just noticed that my WAB (Westinghouse Air Brake Tech) is up $5.59 today to $64.48. I'm wondering if some other company has made a buyout offer. I don't want to let it go until its a $75 ticket. Once a company comes into play it attracts attention from other possible players in the same field - a nice bidding war is the best situation.
 
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