Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
"We are now going to see the dollar get absolutely hammered for the next couple of months."
http://www.safehaven.com/article/20344/end-game
http://www.safehaven.com/article/20344/end-game
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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Nordic
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 17
- AutoTracker
From the same article:
"Four weeks ago spiking inflation rose to the point where profit margins are now being hit. Ben will no longer be able to prop up the stock market by further debasing of the currency. Stocks have now decoupled from their inverse correlation with the dollar and will now follow the dollar down.
The more Ben prints and the faster the dollar collapses, the faster the stock market is going to fall...and the quicker the economy is going to roll over into the next recession."
Mr. Tree, surely you'll give up some of your position based on this prognostication?
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Not hardly. I'm not giving up anything. I'm looking forward to increasing my debt level as flower buying power comes back by the end of the week. U.S. equities are now fairly well confirmed to be in a major Wave 3 advance. The full wave 3 has targets at the 2007 highs. 10/9/07 SPX was at 1565.15. We are in an ultra bullish 3 of 3 of 3 mode. This is still a relatively young bull market. Get ready for the point of recognition and the upward explosion. We got a blue light special going on.
Cyberzen
First Allocation
- Reaction score
- 0
Mega bad news for me; I live in Europe half the year .. on my US dollar retirement. Still, with news like this. Why again are you so bullish?
Gumby
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 23
You must think QE infinity is a done deal.... I don't see new highs on the S&P 500 this year unless Bernanke continues to print greenbacks.Happy_Trails
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 14
The Safehaven guy (Toby Connor) sounds really bearish on stocks and the $$.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
"At just 15.8% today, however, the HSNSI is reflecting even more widespread caution among the market timers - if not outright bearishness. In other words, there is quite robust wall of worry for the stock market to climb."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-now-higher-than-before-earthquake-2011-03-22
jpcavin
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 97
I like the metaphor at the end of this article: "The bull market is a bucking bronco, doing its darndest to throw us off its back on its way across the rodeo ring. The latest sentiment data suggest that it’s doing a very good job of just that.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
A little something for Judy.
"Classical charting methods work better with the Relative Strength Index (RSI). RSI often completes patterns a few days in advance of prices. For example, RSI trendlines are usually broken one or two days before price trendlines."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/259502-market-outlook-improves-s-p-500-eyes-1-400-to-1-440
jpcavin
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 97
Excellent article. Thank you for sharing. Hoping resistance reaches 1400 soon.
Question: If the VIX is slightly down from yesterday, shouldn't equities be up slightly? Or not always?
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
FAB1
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 34
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Bonds over the years have always given me the willies - way too much negativism for my genteel manner. Below are some previous posts from a few weeks back that I liked.
"This is a very bullish longer-term pattern, with a 64-day growth cycle, followed by a 21-day decay cycle into Day 86 (March 22). If this plays out as I expect, we should expect significant strength during the next 86-day cycle, ending July 25. It will take a big drop or a couple of months of sideways action to re-energize this chart." I don't consider a 7.03% consolidation a big drop but it may suffice.
"The current bear market bounce is only the sixth best so far since 1932. The best gain was posted in a four year span beginning in 1942 of 157.7%. So for the next two years, it wouldn't be without precedent for the S&P 500 to keep rising until it reaches 1,745. A similar rise in the Dow would put the index at 16,872." I won't be able to count the number of dollars I'm going to earn.
"How great would it be to finally get a test down to the 30 RSI level on those daily index charts. Just for once, which would allow for a much more aggressive long stance." I think we met that challenge - I'm staying strong and long. Snort.Last edited:
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Oh, one more post just for fun.
"Lessons for investors should not be forgotten. Buy and hold investment strategies did not survive for decades because they were fads. Investors who didn't sell and held on - indeed, continued to dollar cost average - did quite well over the last few years." Jessie Livermore was fond of saying that it wasn't his market thinking that made him the big money but rather his sitting tight. Birinyi is looking for this bull market to rack up 162-210% gains from the March 2009 lows. This bull market has the strongest start of any in history. The real point is, don't get rattled, don't get shaken out, this is a long term rally.
Steel_Magnolia
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 20
He's very good at helping a person to keep their sticky pants on!50/50 S/I. Not jumping ship! Thanks for the reality check.
Hey, Birch, I bought NFLX a couple of days back. Woohoo!
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