Birchtree's Account Talk

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The light bulb just came on!! If Isreal decides to help the opposition forces in Syria this market will explode into an angle of ascent never seen before - one less punk regime to worry about in the Middle East.
 
Elgallo said:
"""This bull market has the strongest start of any in history. The real point is, don't get rattled, don't get shaken out, this is a long term rally.""""

This is eaisier said that done BT but I'm a doin it!

C=50%

I=50%

Yep you can have bonds.
Click to expand...

It is possible that Egypt/Libya and then Japan was the "sell-off", barring any new foreign exogenous event. Many systems say we could "test" the lows near 1260-1270 S&P. This is what most big money wants BUT this is not how price action has worked since Ben has been running the market.

Whether or not we BRIEFLY test the lows and sell-off again, the yearly top is on tap for May and may be 9-10% from here. SP 1420 is the target. Of course my money is 50% on the sideline as I have to convince myself.
 
Murph:

I beleive you are correct about Egypt/Libya. The way I looked at those events was:

1. If Mubark prevailed and the Eygyptian rebles were unssuccessful in their over throw then it's back to businesss as usual which is somwhat a plus wouldn't you say, and since the rebles prevailed that's an even bigger plus longer term as I see it.

2. Re: Lybia see #1 ,and substitute the names/country.

Either way the markets way over reacted, and sold off on EMOTIONS which is the perfect buying opportunity for a LONG TERM INVESTOR.

This market is going higher predicated on corp. profitability driven in large measure by emerging market development, and Japan reconstruction.

BTW I am a BT kinda investor, and stand in front of alot of busses. I don't trade my TSP much if at all and could be referred to as one of those dreadful BUY and HOLDERS. I'm currently 50/50 C and I with 100% contributions to the C fund (the least costly of the three equity fund at our disposal).

I hope your right about that 10% that would be worth around 50K to me if that happens maybe even more.

Good luck to you Amigo.
 
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I suspect that we may be in the process of a spectacular verticle rally - and we certainly don't want to sell too early and miss the parabolic acceleration. This is my oceanic account investment goal - to the extent that a portfolio can generate sufficient cash income for an investor to avoid the need to sell assets to support lifestyle, the safer the long term financial future for that investor, with a lower risk of outliving assets.
 
Birchtree said:
I suspect that we may be in the process of a spectacular verticle rally - and we certainly don't want to sell too early and miss the parabolic acceleration. This is my oceanic account investment goal - to the extent that a portfolio can generate sufficient cash income for an investor to avoid the need to sell assets to support lifestyle, the safer the long term financial future for that investor, with a lower risk of outliving assets.
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Birch.? ....Are you ever "NOT" Optimistic about our stock market? I mean according to you, we are always "headed for the mother rocket ship ride to infinity and beyond in the stock market" (my words)!:laugh:

I luv ya man, but I mean let's keep things in perspective. The world is on fire, oil is having cardiac arrests every other day in price evaluations, and we as a nation are as they say "Broke as a Joke"! I don't see the stock market taking off like the new Ares I rocket!:D

Sorry bro, Just keepin it ...REEL!:laugh:
 
Anyone keeping the faith over the last two years has been well rewarded and the bull has another 700 days to rally. You have to focus on the longer term outlook several years ahead. Norman Fosback is expecting that stocks will gain about 22% in the next 12 months, and he thinks they'll average 11% annualized over the next five years. I believe the March 2009 lows actually marked the start of a new longer term bull market. Be right and sit tight. So far this week my oceanic account is ahead $122K - I could use another $50K tomorrow.
 
I do want to "believe" and I do think we will move up towards 1st part of june/july, but my personal opionion is that once Qe2 stops abruptly in june that it will have ...."consequences"...for our stock market.
 
Afishegg said:
I do want to "believe" and I do think we will move up towards 1st part of june/july, but my personal opionion is that once Qe2 stops abruptly in june that it will have ...."consequences"...for our stock market.
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Except that QE2 was put into place to help kick the recovery into higher gear. Not doing a QE3 after QE2 is the Fed essentially saying the economy can stand on it's own and is on the right track. Yes there's going to be some profit taking the closer that date comes but I scoff at doomsday scenarios.
 
Just think how sweet it would be for a new employee to purchase fund shares when they were on their lows for several months in 2008-2009. Those prices were on 3/9/09: C fund at $7.86, S fund at $9.06, and the I fund at $10.24 - their money would go a lot further buying more shares than they can get today with the same money. This means it will unfortunately take longer to build that retirement base. One you have a multi-tens of thousand share base it becomes easy to make your account grow even in retirement. It just takes time in grade to build that base - stay employed.
 
Well it sure looks like the small caps are parabolic today. That's helping my oceanic nicely - only $16K more to make and I'm back into flower power buying mode. Nine of the 11 prior bull markets lasted for more than 1300 days. It's possible that we're only a tad more than halfway through the bull market. Snort. The sweet smell of superlative bull manure is wafting across the board today. I can't wait to start buying more wall flowers again.
 
Birchtree said:
Just think how sweet it would be for a new employee to purchase fund shares when they were on their lows for several months in 2008-2009. Those prices were on 3/9/09: C fund at $7.86, S fund at $9.06, and the I fund at $10.24 - their money would go a lot further buying more shares than they can get today with the same money. This means it will unfortunately take longer to build that retirement base. One you have a multi-tens of thousand share base it becomes easy to make your account grow even in retirement. It just takes time in grade to build that base - stay employed.
Click to expand...


That would be good... what about someone whose been in the government for about 10 years and just then decided to move there tsp funds at 2008-2009.... that would be a nice...
too bad i'm neither...
 
Birchtree said:
Just think how sweet it would be for a new employee to purchase fund shares when they were on their lows for several months in 2008-2009. It just takes time in grade to build that base - stay employed.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the tip I will try to do that!

Now Birch when is it again we expect the C fund to start outperforming the S fund? :toung:

Looks like S fund is the leader for the year still and going strong

Must be a disinformation campaign brought to us by the folks wishing investors to buy Large Caps?

Phooey! I aint buying it any more.

S stands for Santa and its beginning to look like Xmas! :D
 
Members were in a pure panic of fear when the market was making a potential bottom with the SPX at 666 - only the few were brave enough to commit money down that dark, deep well - I was one who dared. And now I'm making very serious money in both my accounts. It took years to refine my renegade contrarian approach and now comes the rewards. Yes, there is such a thing as Karma.
 
FAB1,

Roughly 60% of today's S&P 500 earnings are actually generated outside the U.S. Eventually the shift in market leadership will take place, and when it does, the advantage that large-cap has over small-cap, and value over growth, will be enormous. I'm content with a slower C fund until I can move money back from the I fund starting next month in five trading days. Patience is virtuous. The retail investor has only returned to this rally recently which means we have even more room to run.
 
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