Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

The most recent Case-Shiller index is indicating a housing market double dip slump is here and there seems to be ample inventory. As a vulture I can wait the market out and get an undervalued property - perhaps. Prices are coming down because the banks are getting anxious. My thinking is that my dividend income stream will cover any mortgage costs without getting into capital gains. I've just got to find the right property.

 

[nnuut]

I still think housing is way over priced. The rise in prices caused the blowup we had in 2008 and the government wants to keep them that high for some reason? In my way of thinking the prices NEED to go lower to reflect real value before the industry will recover and until it does the economy will continue to drag mainly because folks can't afford to buy a house in many parts of the US. It was an exaggerated increase in price due to the Government's desire to let anyone own a home even if they couldn't afford one, they still can't afford a home and it won't get any better until the prices match the real value. Now Obama wants to raise the minimum wage $2 an hour, I'm sure that is a stupid move and will hurt the economy more than it will help.

 

[Birchtree]

"In 40 years I have rarely seen a situation where so many big, profitable international companies are selling at such relatively cheap prices."

http://theguruinvestor.com/2010/12/28/yacktman-stattman-still-high-on-big-blue-chips/

 

[Birchtree]

It would appear that the R2K has been underperforming so far today - I do need a little more oomph to get me into some buying power for tomorrow. Let's see how the 7 year bond auction goes and what the dollar does.

 

[crws]

Hmmmm-
Does this make you a closet liberal? :laugh:

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/12/conservatives-fear-center-brain/

Political opinions are considered choices, and in Western democracies the right to choose one's opinions -- freedom of conscience -- is considered sacrosanct.

But recent studies suggest that our brains and genes may be a major determining factor in the views we hold.

A study at University College London in the UK has found that conservatives' brains have larger amygdalas than the brains of liberals. Amygdalas are responsible for fear and other "primitive" emotions. At the same time, conservatives' brains were also found to have a smaller anterior cingulate -- the part of the brain responsible for courage and optimism.

If the study is confirmed, it could give us the first medical explanation for why conservatives tend to be more receptive to threats of terrorism, for example, than liberals. And it may help to explain why conservatives like to plan based on the worst-case scenario, while liberals tend towards rosier outlooks.

 

[Birchtree]

It all sounds suspicious - something from John Kerry perhaps.

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/5-bullish-and-bearish-charts-for-2011

 

[Warrenlm]

Today, one expert on Kudlow's show opined that there would be a further 20% decline in home values. He said it as if it was routine knowledge. Kudlow climbed all over him and accepted his being in the double dip camp but then said he must be selling stocks like crazy if he believed that. The expert said he was selling some but refused to be flustered by Kudlow's attack.

It would seem that big declines that pull the average down will be in the same states as before. So, the DC area's increases are safe and Cashiers should not see much if any drop. From perusing listings elsewhere in NC it does not seem that sellers are hurrying to drop any further. Just make sure the natural defenses serve you well in the future.

 

[crws]

It all sounds suspicious - something from John Kerry perhaps.

Perhaps you're in denial, big fella? ...:cheesy:

 

[FAB1]

Now Obama wants to raise the minimum wage $2 an hour, I'm sure that is a stupid move and will hurt the economy more than it will help...

Oh not if your in a private sector Union. Its just another Union payoff...altho their "performance" in the last election was pretty sorry.

I guess this is for getting Dingy Harry re-elected to the Senate.

 

[Birchtree]

Any bump in the minimum wage won't hurt the economy. The pain will be felt by young teenage blacks who are already experiencing 31% unemployment rates. Rumor has it that Obama is talking about reducing the corporate income tax - now that would be exemplary bullish for the markets. He's trying to suck up and save his legacy health care nonsense.

 

[Birchtree]

With my last peekaboo at my oceanic I only need $4K more to go and then anything above that gain will be buying power. I could use about $50K to burn off the rest of my buy list. I'll get Mindylou working on the next buy list for January. My theory is the more you have in the more you can win. It appears that liquidity is still balancing out the negativity of bullish sentiment - so let the roller derby continue.

 

[Birchtree]

Well I'm up a couple $K for buying power but I need more - perhaps we'll get a reverse close from yesterday and be up Dow 42 points - that would help. Once the run starts it'll move nicely.

 

[Birchtree]

Pak Song returns to an arena near you.

"Needless to say, a lot of investment advisors have missed out on this recovery bull market and there's an extremely large crowd of angry investors out there who are anxious to start getting decent returns on their money after years of low-to-negative returns."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/19490/wall-streets-push-to-bring-back-the-public

 

[Warrenlm]

Any bump in the minimum wage won't hurt the economy. The pain will be felt by young teenage blacks who are already experiencing 31% unemployment rates. Rumor has it that Obama is talking about reducing the corporate income tax - now that would be exemplary bullish for the markets. He's trying to suck up and save his legacy health care nonsense.

I was surprised, after all the hoopla about high corporate income taxes in the US, to hear an expert yesterday present "effective" rates and show the US in the middle of several nations'. I would have thought there was a greater disparity between them and then ours being huge by comparison, at least that is what Sean the mouth says. Re Obama, you do seem to see him as more pragmatic than many do. Maybe you need more Glenn camp?

 

[jkenjohnson]

Very interesting article and now I'm even more suspicious about buying into the S fund.

 

[Birchtree]

Warrenlm,

There are mucho dollars sitting in overseas corporate accounts that could be repatriated with a lower tax basis. But we'll see how Obama stinks up any suggestions with strings attached.

 

[JTH]

Your I-Fund allocation is going to give you a happy ending to the year

 

[Birchtree]

"Stock market outlook 2011."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25337.html

 

[Birchtree]

My last chance to move up with the Jeffersons. Perhaps the S fund will get hammered like a fine piece of silver on the close - but more than likely that won't happen. So I'll take what I can get. 1995 is on the way so stand back for fast action. Snort.