Birchtree's Account Talk

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SWAVET,

I'll answer your question here. All my stock selections come from years of familiarity from reading the Wall Street Journal. When I was younger I tried the Wall Street Transcript but got inundated with too much information. Barron's is an excellent weekly read that is delivered on Saturday. Most of my stock choices are sector related and I'm very diversified so I sacrifice some possible heavier gains for more consistency. When ever I make any fast money it's because I'm already sitting and waiting - I don't chase what is popular and that saved my skinny during the tech bust. I'm really basically dull and boring and build for income. I have over 300 individual stocks and my recent buying is only dollar cost averaging into my base.
 
Mindylou says I should pull the trigger and buy often and early today - prepare for next week. So far my oceanic is up $76K for the last three days - only $24K more for a four day $100K week. So I'm going shopping for more wall flowers and the market will take care of itself. Snort.
 
Hey Birch,

You have mentioned several times that you do not use any "systems" for your investments. As someone without much of a clue regarding things of this nature, I've been advised either to develop my own "system," or pay someone for theirs. What is your opinion on the matter?

I have the desire to become a wise investor, whether through a system or otherwise. So, is it worth potentially losing lots of money as I trudge through the school of hard knocks with my TSP, or would you recommend paying for help as I go?

I like the approach you have to investing, and you appear to have had good success in the past, so I really appreciate your perspective.

Thanks,

Adrian
 
My advice is always do it yourself because you'll only get better as time goes on. Learn from experience is the best approach. You can't really lose much money in the TSP unless you are already loaded up. It takes a long time in grade to build a substantial balance - once you have multi-thousands of shares then you can make some serious money and by that time you'll be real comfortable with your confidence to ride the bulls.
 
Dec 31, 1999 - S&P 500 is at 1464.47

Dec 22, 2010 - S&P 500 is at 1258.84

I'm sorry, a negative return of 14.04% over 10 years is not my idea of a good approach to investing. Friends don't let friends buy and hold..............;)
 
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My friend as you well know - statistics don't always tell the full story. You can't pidgin hole me like that.

Shopping has been fun today. Buying these sweet wall flowers: ONB, BBT, DDR, ACC, AA, PVA, CTL, LG, CRI, TPC.
 
Intrepid,
Dec 31, 1995 - S&P 500 is at 616.93
Dec 22, 2010 - S&P 500 is at 1258.84​
A gain of 204% in 15 years...

I'm not a buy and holder. At least not completely. But anyone - even an Amoeba - can game statistics by picking a market top to match a market dump. You didn't completely play that game because your end date was reasonable, but...

With the 2008/9 crash I don't think it was the allocation strategy that will affect a portfolio as much as the DCA strategy. Obviously, it would have been better to sit out as much of the dump as possible - but given that one did not, than you are less than -20% from the high and the market is recovering. However, if you stopped contributing and/or contributed to the 'G Fund' during the crash than you doubled down on dumb.

The 2008/9 crash was an opportunity of a lifetime for DCAers.
 
Your ideas of dollar cost averaging are actually quite similar to my ideas of trading. You buy more shares of a stock as it drops and ride the wave higher as it goes up. I just chose to sell everything at or near the top and buy everything back either near the bottom or at a cheaper price than what I bought it. A good system affords one this opportunity. I'm not saying your way is wrong, just that some people don't have an endless supply of money to keep buying and buying...........your way will most likely have better returns in continuous bull periods than mine, but mine will have better returns during bear periods and most likely sideways periods...........depending on the quality of one's trading system............;)

Have a very Merry Christmas Birch!
 
Now friends that's some straight talk from Boghie. Always remember for the future that DCA is always the best redeemer of a portfolio. I'm DCAing into my oceanic base right now. And I've always DCA'd into my TSP - in bull times and especially in those beautiful bear times. DCAing is a real simple strategy but it does require discipline and courage. Trust me, no one that is sane wants to throw good money down a deep dark rabbit hole - but it must be done. And if you do it you'll come out smelling like a rose.
 
No doubt that "doubling down on dumb" is the bite that REALLY HURTS.

Sure killed me this year.

However, I still am averse to by&hold and want to time the market
like the Milk man...but ONLY succesfully!
 
FAB1 said:
No doubt that "doubling down on dumb" is the bite that REALLY HURTS.

Sure killed me this year.

However, I still am averse to by&hold and want to time the market
like the Milk man...but ONLY succesfully!
Click to expand...

Dude,

The Milk Man (Intrepid_Everything) is one to watch. He has had a very good returns - even in the dump year. If he ain't successful in your eyes than the ladies in the annual SI Swimsuit Calendar edition aren't purty:p
 
Well for all the buy and holder's sakes, I hope Mr. Obama and Mr. Bernanke can lead us back down the yellow brick road of the the 1990's...............hey, they've done a good job the past 2 years right! :worried:
 
All I want is another year like 1995 so I can do it up real right and tight. Now I have more wall flowers waiting for a ride.
 
Birch - Ive been to the TSP users board and the Rabbits have Run. Congrats you may yet hit the big time on the tracker : )
 
Today has been a good day to buy some sweet wall flowers with a little bit of weakness: SLI, BIP, TWX, CLC, SMP, CHG, PBY, AP, ADC, CSL. Now the trick is to have all my purchases worth more next week - giving me more buying power. I'll be buying more stock all next week - no need being shy at a moment like this. You have to be in to win and I'm in deep up to my neck. But the bull manure is keeping me nice and toasty.
 
Hey Birch,
I'm not sure if you saw what our sweet little humming bird wrote on the thread about things we're thankful for -- but it's pretty cool.

She is sooo precious -- I mean she's just adorable.

Man I'd a billion zillion times rather have her this way than as a humming bird.


That thread is full of really beautiful stuff -- from a bunch of people.


Well - I luv ya big brother !!! Heading out for Christmas and won't be back till next year.

Steady
 
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