Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

I sure hope Kudlow can provide me with a little inspiration tonight.

 

[Birchtree]

COB 9/30 I'll be 10G/55C/35I - setting up for possible weakness in early October. I'll be potentially making another move later if we rally strong initially into October of around another 10%. Then I'll have an IFT to go all in again if we produce a bottom.

 

[Birchtree]

I have good news. Griffin, you grub, hopefully you are still lurking because in approximately 7 trading days my long market value will exceed $3M. So please take your doubts and grab yourself where it feels good - you're deserving of a selfrighteous reward.

 

[Birchtree]

http://greenfaucet.com/economy/no-need-to-complain-about-this-market/94634

 

[Birchtree]

http://visualstockmarketinsights.blogspot.com/

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18386/the-us-dollar-is-on-the-edge

 

[Birchtree]

"Stock market basing out below S&P 500 1160.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23097.html

 

[amoeba]

news alert - birchtree goes to G-fund/saves money

I hope this is not going to turn out to be the same pattern as yesterday - giving it up on the close. We should rock right up through SPX 1150 to set the tone for the rest of the week. Then they can send in the assassins for early October. I'll be moving 10% to the lily pad soon and then probably another 10% later - just in case the 4-year cycle still creates stress before totally bottoming.

So, how does it feel? you lost 10% less money today than if you would have let it ride. methinks you will feel even better next week when the jobs report comes out.

 

[Birchtree]

I decided to buy more BP today at $42.00 - dollar cost averaging back to $60. I now have a nice profit for my daring buys when every one was walking away.

 

[Birchtree]

"It looks like the weakness in trucking is leading to strength in rails. According to the AAR this was another record week in terms of traffic."

http://pragcap.com/aar-reports-another-record-in-intermodal-traffic

 

[Birchtree]

It won't be long and I'll be in pure gravy with my Arch Coal (ACI) position. Here is how I dollar cost averaged into the build - 2/2/10 at $21.15, 2/9 at $21.07, 3/8 at $24.51, 3/17 at $26.54, 4/28 at $27.85, 6/9 at $21.80, 6/24 at $22.19, 6/30 at $20.28, 7/8 at $21.39, 8/2 at $24.43, 8/5 at $24.63 - the stock price is now at $27.01 and I'll be buying more until at least $35. With the weak dollar who knows how high this stock will rise - but I'll be there regardless. Oh, I picked my first crop of bush beans today and should have them through December.

 

[alevin]

Dang birch, I'm just now picking a few dried heirloom lima pods, the pole beans are far from dried, the tomatoes just really finally starting to ripen-and frost is just around the corner. dum duh dum dum.

If the 13wk/34wk ema differential would ever get above 1%, I'd wade in. since it hasn't, I'll just keep the risk in the outside dinky accounts-trying to stay in long enough for some longterm cap gains on a couple items.

 

[Birchtree]

http://theguruinvestor.com/2010/10/01/paulsen-on-the-new-normal-mania/

 

[Birchtree]

"Market pros: oil breaking out on march to $90."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39458678

Here for fun are my DCA purchases on Cliffs Natural (CLF). The stock is now at $66.50. 2/11 at $45.52, 7/1 at $46.57, 7/9 at $47.82, 7/10 agt $50.81, 9/10 at $48.02. I'd really like to own more of it several months back but I ran out of money. So I'm just going to let it run and hope for a stock split to get back in at lower pricing again. I believe the high price was around $72.

 

[Birchtree]

"Historically, everything seems to be in place for a year end rally. The fact that in September the S&P 500 wrote better than a 7.5% handsome monthly gain, and the S&P 500 being up year to date on the end of September are highly indicative for a continuation of the recent run up in the market, and historically downside potential was regularly limited over the remainder of the year."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18418/as-september-goes-so-goes-

 

[Birchtree]

"Nasdaq 100 has quietly returned to April highs."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23213.html

 

[JTH]

"Nasdaq 100 has quietly returned to April highs."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23213.html

Correct me if I'm wrong but havne't most of the biggest market crashes been in October?

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

Correct me if I'm wrong but havne't most of the biggest market crashes been in October?

I believe you are correct. The question is, will the next one be on a Friday or a Monday? If we get the S&P up to 1155 I'm out.

 

[Birchtree]

Over the years I have ridden many a scary time in October. In the late 1970s they were known as October masacres and they were bottomless pits that arrived with a blitzkrieg but always had a nice rebound. I'm on partial guard because of the 4-year cycle - so we'll see what happens.

 

[Afishegg]

Over the years I have ridden many a scary time in October. In the late 1970s they were known as October masacres and they were bottomless pits that arrived with a blitzkrieg but always had a nice rebound. I'm on partial guard because of the 4-year cycle - so we'll see what happens.

I really enjoy listening to guys like you birch. I respect and tend to side with you, because... you have been in the "trenches" and seem to have much more salt and experience than most (well, almost all, actually) traders on this board. Your like a soothing voice (to us young ancy guys) that says "stop,take a breath, relax and just stay the course and it will be ok"...Times are (obviously)very volatile and uncertain, and us young pups need that older experienced trader standing us down......