Birchtree's Account Talk

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Well the S&P closed just above 1160. Pretty good gap from yesterdays close to todays opening. So what happens tomorrow?
 
I believe this rally will not wait for anyone - either you buy the momentum or you will not get an entry point. There is just too much money on the sidelines and any continuation of a positive move will send up some serious anxiety - I'm missing the boat. Hedge funds are under exposed and will need to build their positions - later we will get the slap back into realty. But for now the ride is fast and furious. I'll be buying a few wall flowers tomorrow.
 
:pBirch,

I don't worry about September - in fact, the evil month of September has been quite good to me for most of the past six years :p

October, not so much :nuts:


I don't care about little swings up or little swings down. October, however, is a month of high standard deviation. I want to catch gains if they are to be had (std works both ways), but I don't want to get hammered into the 500 club that might be forming soon:o
 
By the way, Birch...

When you hit #92 and higher you are in the top quintile. Hold that for the rest of the year and you will have been in that range for two straight years.

I will have to work hard to get into that group this year. I thought I was a big timer earlier this year and overstudied things. Keep it simple Boghie, keep it simple. But, I think I will invest some of the 'F Fund' hoard I am sitting on within a week or two. Like you, I am expecting a dip.
 
Birchtree said:
I believe this rally will not wait for anyone - either you buy the momentum or you will not get an entry point. There is just too much money on the sidelines and any continuation of a positive move will send up some serious anxiety - I'm missing the boat. Hedge funds are under exposed and will need to build their positions - later we will get the slap back into realty. But for now the ride is fast and furious. I'll be buying a few wall flowers tomorrow.
Click to expand...

i believe the big boys will hammer it down a few percent, to get the entry point they want, then ... to the moon. they can do it intraday, we tsp'rs have to see a day ahead, and be committed to the move. there's always tomorrow...

i'm trying to avoid the pause, then grab the rocket ride.
 
Bought a few wall flowers this morning: TEN, TRN, GBX, ARM, TRW. If we get stronger I may return and scoop up a few more - there are just so many wanting to be part of my oceanic portfolio.
 
I'm seeing more and more good folks pushing into the S fund - my fear is the 4-year cycle might steal 2% off their returns. I'll be a buyer at $17.75 if that happens. The slow stochastics seem to be rolling over at this time - trouble is coming my friends.
 
Today must be the pause that refreshes. German factory orders top forecasts and rise 3.4% - no slow down there. That has to be good news for the large caps with the weaker dollar helping exports. Also, the ADP report is notorious for undershooting private sector payrolls - I'm expecting a nice positive surprise to the upside. I'm a buyer into strength.
 
My daughter tells me she knows two of her JMO friends that recently accepted employment with Kraft Ind. They are starting out at $90,000 with a $20,000 sign on bonus. These jobs are in the Chicago area. So it would appear things are looking up. Her company just hired a Navy officer that will be working with her at BP. BP will be doing a lot of hiring in their new safety division - and I suspect they'll try at some point next year to hire her away from her present employer. We have discussed this as a strategic plan for her career. She could end up doing safety audits world wide and double the salary.
 
The S fund is getting ready to print a golden cross. This fits my strategy perfectly - building confidence before the hammer falls. I'm at #65 on the tracker and there are at least 30 heavy S funders blocking traffic - my position is 10G/55C/35I. When and if the S funders collect their thumps in the next two weeks that will provide me an opportunity to sneak up the tracker. Snort. A good move up today could put me in the 10% zone.
 
This place has enough information within daily traffic to claim consumption of a full time job to keep up :_

Ok..new term today "Golden Cross". Anyone have a article that can dumb down this term...lol

Dave
 
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