Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

I'm thinking that if I can see a $17.75 S fund it would be a good buy for my 10% G fund.

 

[2manyirons]

Climbing off the "wall of worry"

Economy's strong points
· Manufacturing remains well in expansion territory, with booming industrial production.
· Leading economic indicators turned back up for the second consecutive month.
· The savings rate is a healthy 6%.
· Commodity prices are surging, suggesting strong global growth and trade.
· Initial unemployment claims have moved back down.
· Home prices are up more than 3% from a year ago, and housing starts and pending home sales are tracking higher.
· Personal income and spending are both tracking higher.
· Retailers are beating sales forecasts, as consumer spending increased significantly in August.
· Construction spending surprised on the upside.
· Housing affordability is near all-time highs.


Stock market's strong points
· Last month's gain was the second-strongest September for the S&P 500® index (historically, that's been a good sign for fourth-quarter performance).
· The majority of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average.
· Market breadth is bullish.
· The market is entering its election-cycle sweet spot (typically from the midterm election through the third quarter of the pre-election year).
· Venture capital investment is up nearly 50% this year, while initial public offerings are in vogue again (young firms have accounted for 11% of private employment).
· Merger-and-acquisition (M&A) activity is booming again.

http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/research_strategies/market_insight/todays_market/sonders/sonders_100410.html

 

[Elgallo]

I really enjoy listening to guys like you birch. I respect and tend to side with you, because... you have been in the "trenches" and seem to have much more salt and experience than most (well, almost all, actually) traders on this board. Your like a soothing voice (to us young ancy guys) that says "stop,take a breath, relax and just stay the course and it will be ok"...Times are (obviously)very volatile and uncertain, and us young pups need that older experienced trader standing us down......

I could not have said it any better there Egg!

When the going gets tough, and it is, the tough slow down...

 

[Birchtree]

If we can get a +200 day on the Dow that should lift the SPX above its longer term down trend line at 1160 - after thaty it's all gravey. I still wonder if the nesting of the 4-year cycle is waiting to cause problems - I'll pull another 10% to the G fund if I can see a C fund price $14.25.

 

[Birchtree]

The S&P 500's ability to top 1150 and stay there over several weeks could signal the market's direction for the next four years, according to Stockmarket Cycle's Peter Eliades. Dow is currently +142 - rock on Bullwinkle.

 

[Birchtree]

Could we be looking at an out of nowhere panic day. If we can get close to +200 on the Dow around 1400 hours that might spark the bears to really cover and also bring in some scared money - not wanting to miss this train. If the SPX blows through 1160 all the TA guys will freak and panic themselves to get in. Trying to get all those folks through the door simultaneously will create a venturi effect and up we go - zoom. Stand back and watch the fun. There are fingers on the buy trigger. Once we cruise past Dow 11,200 then comes the 4-year cycle to slap us bulls momentarily back to reality - but perhaps not. The 4-year cycle could have bottomed in July and will offer only modest pressure and then the cycle is off to the upside. Now we'll have the 2-year, 4-year and 6-year acting in tandem - it could be wonderful.

 

[Birchtree]

Holy mackeral Andy we're really smokin'em now with the Dow +170 and it ain't even noon yet. I doubt this is a head fake but the real deal looking forward to the private payroll numbers due Friday. If you are in then just genuflect to the bull - if you want to get in then come on in - if you are bearish be prepared to get trampled by the hooves.

 

[nasa1974]

Holy mackeral Andy we're really smokin'em now with the Dow +170 and it ain't even noon yet. I doubt this is a head fake but the real deal looking forward to the private payroll numbers due Friday. If you are in then just genuflect to the bull - if you want to get in then come on in - if you are bearish be prepared to get trampled by the hooves.

HUH!!!

 

[nasa1974]

Holy mackeral Andy we're really smokin'em now with the Dow +170 and it ain't even noon yet. I doubt this is a head fake but the real deal looking forward to the private payroll numbers due Friday. If you are in then just genuflect to the bull - if you want to get in then come on in - if you are bearish be prepared to get trampled by the hooves.

Yeah but what is the volume like??????

 

[Birchtree]

I'm not worried about volume - there has really been no volume all the way up. We may not see volume for the next 3,000 Dow points - then once at 14,200 mom and pop will enter with a vengence as the bond bubble starts to bleed off funds. There are going to be many good days ahead for everyone - those in early benefit the most. I'll be glad to gently sell equities on the top sometime in 2011 to the newcomers.

 

[Birchtree]

Here's more good news.

http://pragcap.com/small-investors-continue-to-move-into-bonds

 

[WorkFE]

No matter how hard one tries you can't hate optimism.

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX is getting ready to force me back into the market and to make those sweet wall flower buys. We could very easily be at SPX 1496 by the end of the year - that's a lot of power coming into the market pushing this train down the tracks.

 

[GUCHI]

birch
i hope your right with that spx 1496. let the good times roll.

 

[GUCHI]

ohhh ! and the steady buy n hold I funders need some help before the end of the year.

 

[Birchtree]

A $24.66 would be a nice price for the I fund - that'll help.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm reminded that the bus travels faster when no one is on board. We could explode during the last hour as the venturi effect comes into play. JTH here I come.

 

[GUCHI]

$24.66 would be sweet almost the high from 4 or 5 years ago. i have been adding shares for just this special time. and then what? i will probably just let it ride or not.
i just hope the FV does not kill the great I fund gain.

 

[JTH]

I'm reminded that the bus travels faster when no one is on board. We could (but won't) explode during the last hour as the venturi effect comes into play. JTH here I come.

Your just too cute, I'm reminded the Bus doesn't travel at all if nobody's at the wheel, but it will roll down over a cliff...

 

[Birchtree]

Tomorrow could be hotter than Blazing Saddles - the Birchtree 300 took in some nice gains. I'm ready for the hedge funds to push me into happiness and money rich large caps will start buying other companies to further bolster their bottom lines. Everything is intact for a blistering rally into Christmas.