Birchtree's Account Talk

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I may not make it out doors today - I'm having fun watching this rally and the dollars pile up. I have the animal spirits and want to chase this rally with buying. But I'm cash limited at this point so I have to be judicious in my spending. If I can see 10,700 I'll be buying this and that.
 
What's your read on bonds?
Looks like AGG has a slow leak.

Birchtree said:
I may not make it out doors today - I'm having fun watching this rally and the dollars pile up. I have the animal spirits and want to chase this rally with buying. But I'm cash limited at this point so I have to be judicious in my spending. If I can see 10,700 I'll be buying this and that.
Click to expand...
 
You couldn't give me bonds because eventually they will blow up. I'll stick with equities and their dividends for the long term - they'll be very rewarding as I make my way into the golden years. I reinvest all my dividends for the time being but eventually they'll provide a very nice cash flow. I just got an e-mail from Cashiers on a condo that has dropped in price from $1.1M to $690K - that got my attention. Dividend income is better than working. Many companies are already increasing their payouts.
 
Yes, another case of one's brains being in his pants. At least he doesn't claim any illegitimate children like Jessie does.
 
Steady,

Let's face reality - all I need to be happy is good sex, comfortable shoes, and a warm place to go to the bathroom. That should about do it.
 
I'm not sure how you can make a blanket statement like that. The bond market is many times larger than the stock market and all bonds are not created equal. That is not going to change on a relative level. It's a very diversified market too. Some bonds go up in an equity bull run. And as long as one is only interested in cash flow, price is relatively meaningless. All those retirees are building in number as the baby boomers leave the workplace. Many are looking for lower risk opportunities and bonds have always fit that bill nicely.



Birchtree said:
You couldn't give me bonds because eventually they will blow up.
Click to expand...
 
coolhand said:
I'm not sure how you can make a blanket statement like that.
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I think I can help ya out on this one.

He's Birch man, are you kiddin' me :nuts:

Trust me, he can say whatever he wants ... :blink:.... even Tom and the Mods shake and tremble ...

A charging Rino would basically fall over dead if Birch got mad :confused:


Well anyway - DO NOT - get excited about today. This is still simply 'consolidation' and that will last awhile.
 
Jth,

Been holding GE and continue to hold it. It's a global stock and well positioned to make good gains in the future.

Coolhand,

I've never liked bonds - just my personal opinion. I'm strictly into equities and have no reason to abandon them - they'll make me rich. Still walking the line from our 16% correction. The April high at 11,254 is very close.
 
Birchtree said:
Coolhand,

I've never liked bonds - just my personal opinion. I'm strictly into equities and have no reason to abandon them - they'll make me rich. Still walking the line from our 16% correction. The April high at 11,254 is very close.
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Then it's a personal preference. I just wanted to make that distinction. Carry on. :cool:
 
Coolhand,

When I made the statement that bonds will blow up - that's just my opinion. That I chose not to own bonds is indeed my preference. Bonds are in a classic mistake bubble that will eventually chase mom and pop back into equities - let's just hope that doesn't happen until the Dow is at least 3,000 points higher. It's only right that the cowardly majority should pay up for their stocks. I noticed where BAC just decreased their rates on CDs - there aint't gonna be anyplace to make money unless one dares to show courage and assume risk. That is the reality of the investment arena - pain is on the horizon for the bond market.
 
An anecdotal that supports the bullish view for tomorrow. Overheard this morning in a tire store. Northern Virginia area (where there is no economic problem). Woman, Caucasian, 50s, waiting for tire installation and talking on cell phone: Asks other party about getting an FHA loan, "those loans are assumable for the life of the loan, can you imagine how valuable they will be in 5 years when the rates are 10%?", (other party), "So it would have to be a business (sic) loan?" (other party), "Well, OK, how many of them can I get?".

Why she was servicing her car instead of having her driver do it I don't know. But undoubtedly she and or her husband are in the government cash flow scheme around here. The place to be.
 
Well she is definitely thinking ahead - because the time will arrive when rates will start going back up. Buy now at the bottom and patiently wait for better days - just like buying stocks instead of running to the bond markets. When the Dow gets back to 11,254 my margin account will start providing buying power again - and if it moves I'll buy it. Until then I have to contain my enthusiasm and try not to take more profits. I did take some profits during Jan. '10 and now have a few regrets - but that always happens.
 
I could surely use a positive fair valuation on the I fund today - trying to stay ahead of JTH and move up on Tsunami. Sugarandspice up ahead looks like poetry in motion. When I was a runner circling the U of F track after work late at night about twenty times - many of the young ladies would come and run a few laps and each wore a different perfume. One of the few joys during a hard run was the sweet smell of those girls...makes you forget the pain awhile until the second wind kicks in.
 
Sorry, I don't agree with your assessment in total. While there may indeed be some areas that get hurt, others will flourish. And that's assuming you are correct about the longer term prospects for this market. It's all about cycles. High yield is kicking butt right now and will probably continue to do so should the bull indeed stay the course. That's a situation where you can have your cake and eat it too.

So while we both may be bullish right now, one of us will dare become a bear at some point. Guess who that might be? :D

Birchtree said:
Coolhand,

When I made the statement that bonds will blow up - that's just my opinion. That I chose not to own bonds is indeed my preference. Bonds are in a classic mistake bubble that will eventually chase mom and pop back into equities - let's just hope that doesn't happen until the Dow is at least 3,000 points higher. It's only right that the cowardly majority should pay up for their stocks. I noticed where BAC just decreased their rates on CDs - there aint't gonna be anyplace to make money unless one dares to show courage and assume risk. That is the reality of the investment arena - pain is on the horizon for the bond market.
Click to expand...
 
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