Birchtree's Account Talk

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<hand popping up with question> Do you have an opinion on whether the late summer/early fall will see an event like the one you anticipated could do real damage?
 
The damage from the 4 year cycle nesting may have occurred early with this 14% correction - but it would not hurt to anticipate another correction type around October especially if the summer momentum is hot and we take out the previous yearly highs of April 26th. I'll probably try once again to move some percentages to the G fund in preparation for trouble. Otherwise it could be clear sailing with so much negative sentiment right into the heralded Christmas rally.
 
Helicopter Ben at work-
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18098.html

(snippet)
Fed Stock Market Capital Infusions On Options Expiration Weeks

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Mar 23, 2010 - 03:15 AM By: Graham_Summers

Options Expiration= Ramp Job
Well, it’s another options expiration week and that means, yes you guess it, ramp job time! Wall Street loves options expiration week because it’s that wonderful time of the month when they can move entire stock markets any which way they like just to make sure they shred the options traders and close out their own positions at a profit.

The latest addition to this scheme is the Fed’s liquidity pump. Ben Bernanke, for whatever reason, seems to like to make his biggest capital infusions to the market on options expiration week (these weeks are bolded below).Coincidence? Hard to say after nine STRAIGHT MONTHS. Nah, couldn’t be intentional. I’m probably being fooled by randomness.
  • Week / Fed Action
  • March 17 +$25 billion
  • March 11 2010 +$2 billion
  • March 4 2010 -$5 billion
  • February 25 2010 +$8 billion
  • February 18 2010 +$21 billion
  • February 11 2010 +$7 billion
  • February 4 2010 +2 billion
  • January 28 2010 -$4 billion
  • January 21 2010 -$39 billion
  • January 14 2010 +$56 billion
  • January 7 2010 +$1 billion
  • December 31 2009 -$1 billion
  • December 28 2009 +$35 million
  • December 17 2009 +$49 billion
  • December 10 2009 -$17 billion
  • December 3 2009 -$2 billion
  • November 27 2009 -$2 billion
  • November 19 2009 +$73 billion
  • November 12 2009 -$30 billion
  • November 5 2009 +$3 billion
  • October 29 2009 -$39 billion
  • October 22 2009 +$8 billion
  • October 15 2009 +$54 billion
  • October 8 2009 -$3 billion
  • October 1 2009 -$17 billion
  • September 24 2009 +$18 billion
  • September 17 2009 +$51 billion
  • September 10 2009 +$4 billion
  • September 3 2009 +$8 billion
  • August 27 2009 +$14 billion
  • August 20 2009 +$46 billion
  • August 13 2009 +$25 billion
  • August 6 2009 -$11 billion
  • July 30 2009 -$38 billion
  • July 23 2009 -$33 billion
  • July 16 2009 +$80 billion
 
Birchtree said:
It feels like a rally on the horizon - if the VIX drops under the 25 level bulls may push the Dow toward 10,550. Yesterday was a nice $K day for both my accounts but I want more.
Click to expand...


Yeah, it must be a nice feeling for you to be almost back to where you were in January 1998. But you'd feel better if you actually made something over the last 12 years. A whole lot of buying and holding for a whole lot of nothing return.

Do you see a recovery out there? You see employment? You see houses being built? sold? for what price? What do you see? Recovery of government spending?

I see nothing but a house of cards. I vote for a gold option in the TSP.
 
I found an answer to that!
http://www.grandich.com/2010/05/bil...tter-says-it-all-regarding-option-expiration/

NO IMMUNITY!!! AAARGH:laugh:

Bill Murphy’s Latest Newsletter Says it All Regarding Option Expiration


Once again The Gold Cartel has made a mockery of the precious metals markets and taunted the CFTC with their blatant takedown of the gold price ahead of the June option expiry. It is as if they flipped the finger at the CFTC. When is the Gensler gang going to pay attention to the likes of Bart Chilton and stop this egregious nonsense?
Gold perked up as soon as the Comex closed yesterday, moving easily above the aggressively protected $1200 level when the Comex was open and the option expiry still alive. This is ridiculous, as gold has gone $1216 bid this morning. Café members have witnessed grand larceny, committed right in front of the CFTC police, who continue to turn a blind eye to blatant market manipulation.
RG…
FYI,
Latest to Bart,
From: Richard Guthrie
Sent: 26 May 2010 11:38
To: ‘bchilton@cftc.gov’
Subject: Juine Option Expiry,
Bart,
Yet again we see the price of gold plunged in the 2 weeks coming into an option expiry,
Midas0526A.gif

So at what price level was there most incentive for the Option Call writers to see the price close below at come expiry day?
Below is a graph showing the Open Interest of all the June Call Options between the strike prices of $1150-$1250 going into the last 24 hours of trading before expiry,
Midas0526B.gif

Ha, ha, Now there’s a surprise, Standing out like a massive sore thumb, the largest proportion by a country mile of open Call Options were at the $1200 strike level, 17,675 to be exact, The equivalent of over 50 tonnes of gold,
Now look at the performance of the price of gold in the last 24 hours (graph below), With so much at stake one can see how the price of gold was held from breaching above the $1200 level going into the Option Expiry close, to ensure all those contracts expired worthless, But within a few hours the price was then free to drift higher and now hardly 12 hours later the price stands well in excess of the $1200 strike level!
Midas0526C.gif

I trust and hope that the CFTC is investigating this incident, Afterall the plunge in prices before an Option Expiry has been brought to the CFTC’s attention on numerous occasions over the last 2 years,
I look forward to hearing from you,
Yours faithfully,
Richard Guthrie
Director
Broadland Properties Ltd
 
I've been out enduring the heat for love and pulling weeds out of my lawn. I don't mind this sideways action as long as my dividends continue to be reinvested. All the MCOs are just pulling back a little from yearly highs - resting if you will.
 
You da Hus-Man!!
Citing today's market performance as evidence- I'll stick my neck out...
Come Monday BEWARE THE BEAR!! LOL:D
 
Congrats BT I see your back in black again. One day's action and you could potentially pass me up! But why chance it? Make your exit now before this market comes to its senses and throws you back off the cliff.
 
Ooooh the VIX is now at 24.23 down 0.82. I think we may see a rally start up at any time - take me to Dow 10,550 and make me some money.
 
Good luck, buddy, I call head fake -for the day only!!:D
Shorts are guaranteed to pony up today....
 
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