Birchtree's Account Talk

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visual said:
the futures don't look good for today. Glad I got out yesterday.
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Which is always a good feeling for a few days.... until the market takes off without you because of these damn tsp restrictions. Been caught in that time warp too many times only to watch my friends, who never got scared and got out, surpass my account total. On top of that, all the extra "winnings" they accumulated, keep earning them more as time goes on. Makes me ill to see all my gains disappear, but we are hamstrung by the tsp system. Just hoping we don't see a 2008 again. :mad:
 
JamesE said:
Which is always a good feeling for a few days.... until the market takes off without you because of these damn tsp restrictions. Been caught in that time warp too many times only to watch my friends, who never got scared and got out, surpass my account total. On top of that, all the extra "winnings" they accumulated, keep earning them more as time goes on. Makes me ill to see all my gains disappear, but we are hamstrung by the tsp system. Just hoping we don't see a 2008 again. :mad:
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These multiple thousand dollar swings are killing me. :sick:

I can't afford another 2007/2008. I lost almost 40% of my account before I could stop the bleeding. Took me all of 2009 to recover. February, March and April I finally jumped ahead and May has taken it all away. :(
 
It smells like a climactic sell off with panic - this could potentially be the bottom. Valuations are excellent with this current 10% correction. When the VIX is high it's time to buy. I'll absorb the hits and simply wait for the rational turnaround which will come.
 
JamesE said:
... until the market takes off without you because of these damn tsp restrictions. ...keep earning them more as time goes on. ...Makes me ill to see all my gains disappear, but we are hamstrung by the tsp system. :mad:
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Letting yourself getting swept into concerns about the market taking off w/o you, and being embarrassed about being `left behind' by those with thicker reserves can lead to worse things than being sick as you lose all the gains of even just one month. It is when you see at the bell, and it is confirmed by the price for that day you have lost beyond & deeper than that, it is time to cease & desist anymore carnage & flee...so I did.

(well, obviously, I must have some kind of a glimmer of hope - I just remembered I did leave an atom-sized % in the other funds!)
 
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The World of Birch, eh? I can count on hearing the wailing and gnashing of teeth here on days like this the thread seems to be a meeting place of the woe and begone.lol!
 
It can go down further, looking at today's global and offshore economic problems. (However, yes it can go up too). In these difficult times, a move, 10 or 20% or more per day, to the G is a good option, it's relieving, and one that is offered by the TSP. Grandma is offering up some sage, well tempered advice. Something that comes with years of experience.

For those of us not well heeled, this market can be and is right now "a dangerous game" (not healthy) to quote a person with some wealth on this forum. A person has to ask themselves. Are there more reasons to get out than stay in? Another thing..., May, old "Out in May", looks to have played itself out. June and fresh IFTs are only 7 trading days away. Some food for thought.
 
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BT and me know this game too. Stay long as this weakness will get gobbled up before long.
 
So I have been lurking on this message board now for about half a year .. and I finally decided to register and speak today after following the discussion in Birch's thread. I am turning 27 this year and my TSP is very important to me.

With 2 IFT's, it's just impossible to play the markets like day traders.
I had my money out of the markets long before the plummet. However, I also missed much of the gains because I didn't look back.

I have been back in the market now since last fall, and have held my place outside of the G fund since just before Christmas without moving my money back and forth, and it scared me when things started tanking again in the last couple of weeks. However, I will not get out now. Every time I have moved my money to follow the fear, I miss out on rebounds and it ends up costing me more. Although the advice to play it safe is sound for some, it can also be stressful to be coaxed into taking losses to jump on the fearwagon when it doesn't work out either. I actually enjoy the optimism of Birch and the bulls right now. It's what keeps my hair from going grey at times like these when things are so red.
 
irish.car.bomb said:
So I have been lurking on this message board now for about half a year .. and I finally decided to register and speak today after following the discussion in Birch's thread. I am turning 27 this year and my TSP is very important to me.

With 2 IFT's, it's just impossible to play the markets like day traders.
I had my money out of the markets long before the plummet. However, I also missed much of the gains because I didn't look back.

I have been back in the market now since just before Christmas, and it scared me when things started tanking again in the last couple of weeks. However, I will not get out now. Every time I have moved my money to follow the fear, I miss out on rebounds and it ends up costing me more. Although the advice to play it safe is sound for some, it can also be stressful to be coaxed into taking losses to jump on the fearwagon when it doesn't work out either. I actually enjoy the optimism of Birch and the bulls right now. It's what keeps my hair from going grey at times like these when things are so red.
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welcome to the MB good luck , and the grey's will come what ever you decide to do :D
 
Birchtree said:
There is a great amount of evidence suggesting that the A/D line will not top simultaneously with price. So the time to be on guard will be when the major market averages make new highs, but the A/D line falls short. The A/D line is not diverting, and its very rare the price will top without A/D divergence.
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What happens when everybody is watching the AD Line? You do know it's the mutual fund analysts that pump that stupid indicator right? Like any technical analysis indicator, you have to use more than one.

The 'Giving Tree' is done giving. Greenspan, Bernanke, et al chopped down the tree in March of 2009 with QE, but everybody still wants more.
 
This market has my attention but no margin calls yet - another day like today and my back will be against the wall. I have my selling selections waiting in the wings but no triggers yet. I have been through so many of these hedge fund nonsense plays it's hard to take them seriously but theyt do cause pain. The lamb chop account is prepared to be sacrificed if necessary. I'll ride out my TSP account since I don't need any of the money at this time. Today with a 2 billion share sell off versus 2 million on the buy side was pure capitulation.
 
hang in there guys. I have a hunt that Monday is an up day. If you want out, that is a good day to get out.
 
It's not uncommon to have a 10% correction in the middle of a bull market although there was not a 10% slide during the 2003-2007 bull run. This will be the third give back since March 09 and this one is the biggest yet. We have to have patience with this type of volatility - and I'm prepared to hold all my positions if possible. We are now potentially looking for the possibility that the market will begin to climax with continued parabolic action to the upside accompanied by climactic volume. We saw 2 billion shares to the downside today - the reverse can also happen. Such a move in the markets would likely signal a bearish change of trend beginning with panic buying. I really remember March 9th, '09 and how we took off from those lows - and did I make a great deal of money. Same thing will happen again. There is the possibility that the 4 year cycle has nested early - and as a result when the cycle turns up this market could be off to the races and zoom ahead like it did in October 1998 retracing all the losses from the prior months. I'm certainly not giving up on this market - it is going to make me rich but I have to endure some more pain first. Snort.
 
Is it starting to "smart" a little BT?? I have some Bactine here if you need it, but it does sting. yuk yuk! no seriously I dont think its time to runaway yet...might reduce risk depending on todays action but Ive lost 2 much to miss a rally. Oh Hey Tom have you jumped in yet...you cant beat these low prices. heh.
 
I thought for sure the S fund would bottom around the price of $17.33 but we overshot that price to $16.89. I removed 5% at $19.48 and another 15% at $18.45 moving into the I fund at $17.34. Now we'll see which fund rebounds the most - my money is on the large caps with 60C and 40I and I will hold this position indefinitely.
 
:nuts:
SNORT!
:nuts:

yeah birch since march 09 ive made a bunch myself and i just cant see selling off yet. All of those shares are still there and as long as I dont sell off lower I havent lost anything hehe. UP UP UP
 
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