Birchtree's Account Talk

[Warrenlm]

I thought for sure the S fund would bottom around the price of $17.33 but we overshot that price to $16.89. I removed 5% at $19.48 and another 15% at $18.45 moving into the I fund at $17.34. Now we'll see which fund rebounds the most - my money is on the large caps with 60C and 40I and I will hold this position indefinitely.

Thus, you are adjusting your strategy? For tracker competition you planned to await a cycle downpoint to buy in with a stockpiled 30%G. Have you concluded the expected downpoint has now moved up to May (which I think was your original point).

 

[Birchtree]

Our current 12% correction would coincide nicely with a four year cycle low that apparently arrived early. I haven't seen anything in print for this view yet. It was supposed to nest in the September-October time period - and it may yet. And if it does it will hurt like this correction has - I think it's done the required damage to shift the views of the herd to negativism. The two year cycle was due to bottom at the end of July - perhaps the cycles bottomed simultaneously and that accounts for the extent of the damage. Yes, I wish I had my 30% G - I would spend it today without compunction.

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX hit a peak of 48 today on the opening drop. When the market bottomed on March 9th '09 the VIX closed at 49.33. And you know what happened next.

 

[fedgolfer]

The %K/%D slow stoch crossover sometimes is a good indicator of the next index to lead the next run... EFA has done it, $emw and $spx still haven't gotten their. You could be right on the I-fund portion of your call

At least we can sleep a little easier this weekend!

 

[fedgolfer]

The %K/%D slow stoch crossover sometimes is a good indicator of the next index to lead the next run... EFA has done it, $emw and $spx still haven't gotten their. You could be right on the I-fund portion of your call

scratch that... stockcharts did a re-print and changed today's low from 44 to 46.91... so, there's no 'roo tail and no slow stoch crossover.

 

[Birchtree]

My oceanic account on April 26th was sitting essentially at the $3M level. Now that we've experienced a 10%-12% correction I've been devalued by $441K. When I reach the $4M level the next correction will undoubtedly be even heavier on the toll. There in is the lesson: if you want to play against the hedge funds you must be able to tolerate the pain they can create to stay in the game. I had a feeling this blind side was out there - that's why I built my sacrificial lamb chop account. I haven't had to use it yet but it's available to sell if necessary. I now would prefer a slow move back to 11,205 so that I can take opportunity of this blessed correction and catch some very nice prices with my dividend reinvestments - I'm all about building an income stream that will last an eternity rather than shooting from the hip after capital gains. I'm so use to being run over by the train. Every dividend that is reinvested buys more stock and because the amount of stock has been increased the next dividend payout will be larger - and now many companies are beginning to increase their dividends. Yup, $441K is a lot of money but it will come back to me as the market trends higher in this continuing mega trend secular bull market. There is no reason to have fear or panic because of someone else's nonsense.

 

[Birchtree]

Betula papyrifera remains at 60C/40I and currently has no plans for the G fund. As we get into July I may try to shift a few percents (30) to the G fund in preparation for the calamity the 4 year cycle may deliver - just in case we have not seen it yet. If I had kept to my original goal of collecting a 30% G via reverse DCA, I'd be in like Flint right now with some sweet buying power. But that's OK - I'm tolerant.

 

[Birchtree]

"Over the last six months, stocks and the dollar have actually been positively correlated and moving in the same direction."

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/5/21/correlation-of-dollar-vs-stocks.html

 

[KevinD]

Betula papyrifera remains at 60C/40I and currently has no plans for the G fund. As we get into July I may try to shift a few percents (30) to the G fund in preparation for the calamity the 4 year cycle may deliver - just in case we have not seen it yet. If I had kept to my original goal of collecting a 30% G via reverse DCA, I'd be in like Flint right now with some sweet buying power. But that's OK - I'm tolerant.

Have you ever thought about making a few bucks as a short hair? You know it's coming if it's not already here...

 

[Birchtree]

The last four weeks reminds me so much of Spring 2007 when again the hedge funds were in a panic and selling their commodity holdings for fear China was slowing down - and of course they were all wrong as usual. Now they are unwinding their positions as a fear of anti-growth of the pro-growth trade. They are afraid that China is trying to tap the brakes on its booming growth. But as usual oil demand has proven more vigorous than originally thought in China where strength in oil imports were up 39% during the first quarter from the same period a year ago. That doesn't sound too much like a slowdown in economic activity to me. The hedge funds also have fears because of mounting sovereign debt worries. They think the U.S. consumer is about to falter again. Disappointing jobless claims forgot to mention they were only in six states while 34 states had an improvement in their stats. So much fear and so little time to think rational. We are still in a global economic recovery such that the Fed boosted their GDP forecasts going forward for this country - I regard the whole situation as basically nonsense and I'm leaving my money right where it is involved in risk trade.

 

[KevinD]

I guess thats a no. :laugh:

Do you feel it's un-American? or anti-American?

http://www.investopedia.com/university/shortselling/shortselling4.asp

 

[Birchtree]

KevinD,

I'm not a short seller but I have no problem with short selling if the shares being shorted are first borrowed or currently owned. When you short a stock the participant is responsible for any dividends. If you want to short the box - that's how you get rich.

"The herd mentality is instrumental in bringing about a panic. Moreover, it's usually found that a negative news event is behind the widespread fear that leads to the panic."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19721.html

 

[Birchtree]

"The incredibly bullish outlook on the euro today is not based on fundamentals, but technicals and sentiment."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/16877/euro-panic-buying-op

 

[visual]

Futures are down big this morning. Look like there is no bound this monday.

 

[Birchtree]

Oh my friend, it's a long day yet.

 

[fedgolfer]

Everytime a young bear speaks, an old bull gets his wings.

- from "It's a Wonderfull Bull", to be written

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/insiders-are-buying-the-dip

http://pragcap.com/goldman-sachs-the-sell-off-is-a-buying-opportunity

 

[FAB1]

the morning futures arent always to be trusted. Dips before noon dont stop an afternoon rally. In effect the last 30 min before the market closes will determine if we win or lose the day.

 

[Birchtree]

An unchanged day would be considered a win for the bulls.

 

[Birchtree]

"With Jupiter and Uranus about to start a three passage conjunction with one another through early next year, it has been my thought that this will coincide with excessive speculation and hence 'bubbles' in financial assets." Get ready for some exciting summer fun.

http://mmacycles.com