Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Look at the bright side.
If anyone says anything .... you can say you've got plenty in G Fund and were well prepared.
:toung:Great song BTW -- excellent pick for the moment.
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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Look at the bright side.
If anyone says anything .... you can say you've got plenty in G Fund and were well prepared.:toung:
Great song BTW -- excellent pick for the moment.
FWIW - I didn't get my IFT in on time, so I cancelled it, so whatever happens monday - after the euro turn thumbs down (or twiddle them), will happen without me in the market.
Dunno. It feels lucky, since I made the wrong call on the jobs report, and the market continued to swish down the bowl anyway. Momentum, of the downward variety if there is such a thing, seems to be involved.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
I've been keeping friends posted as to how well I've been doing in my oceanic portfolio off the March 9th '09 bottom. At week #59 I had a gain of $1294K. Now for the unwelcome news. At week #61 I'm at $897K - this is a devaluation of $397K in two weeks time because of this silly consolidation that has now turned into a correction. I knew I was becoming a bigger player so that's why I built my sacrificial lamb chop account to cover any margin calls - so far it's still intact. I'll just bleed a little more if necessary. The dividend reinvestments can do the heavy lifting for awhile. The typical bull market lasts three to five years so any correction is for buying. The silly hedge fund traders think the eurozone credit crisis is going to cause us a double dip recession - that is so stupid. The eurozone is in recovery and the ECB will extend credit to all their banks. I still firmly believe that we are in the first leg of a new secular bull market and my oceanic account will be redeemed along with my tugboat. The tugboat has slipped from a 10% gain down to a negative 0.48% at ranking #201 - that is not a problem because I was at this level back in February. Money flows like the tides - in and out. I surely miss my DCA days.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Thursday was an emotional capitulation and Friday was a price capitulation. We saw a big jump in risk aversion with the spike in the VIX index to 41. We've had strongly increasing put/call ratios similar to July '09 or lower. Almost 74% of stocks are now below their 50-DMA. It's buying time. Honestly, with all these blowed out statistics if this isn't a bottom I don't know what is. There is so much fear that this is a small blessing. This correction over the concerns for soverign debt crisis is just background noise that continues to keep the mom and pop scared money away from the market, heading again to bonds. This has been the case for the entire bull market and I like it. Every consolidation seems to breed a panic sell. This is actually a perfect scenario for a bull market and the longer scared money stays away the greater will be the bull run. I am still looking at a multi-year bull run - this is not 2008 all over again. My wife's defined contribution plan paid yesterday buying her many more shares at lower prices - that's golden for her retirement. Snort.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
The S fund came down with extraordinary flair like I knew it would. Don't count on a rapid rebound of outperformance for the S fund anytime soon. If you continue to stay with it be sure you can handle more pain and discouragement. It's time for the C funders to have their parade.
Corepuncher
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 40
I noticed small caps unraveling too....I agree it won't lead the next rally. C will be seen as relatively safe and I also hope for an I fund rocket shot if the dollar corrects and we rally.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
We are set up for the same ride. The selling idiots will recognize that we have entered a self-sustaining recovery and Europe is in the same place moving forward. The Fed is not ready yet to tighten. The earnings remain significantly bullish with no chance for a double dip recession. Europe is running a 3% GDP with good manufacturing prospects and exports. I fail to see the negative themes that have caused this over reaction to the downside. I'm holding my asset base because there is still the possibility of Dow 12,000 before the end of May. This bull is going to stampede with a vengence now that he has plenty of running room and a light load on his back - meaning the bus travels faster when no one is on board.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
JimmyJoe
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 8
I'll stick it out till Tuesday. Get your flags ready to wave either Monday or Tuesday (Tuesday they'll test the oil box according to BP officials)
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
You got the right idea there Jimmy Joe. It's a pleasure to have your insight on this MB.
"Finally, from a contrarian perspective, the sell-off will likely extend the current rally even further." With the VIX at 41 it's time to buy and not panic out.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19287.html
"There's no arguing the breakdown for the moment. It's real and now the onus shifts to the bulls to see if they're capable of taking back 1150 on a closung basis with force." I'll be right there when they do providing the cheers.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19265.html
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
"The market has not yet become confident enough in a global recovery to avoid panicking at one new set of unknowns. It strill pays to be optimistic."
http://www.scottgrannis.blogspot.com/
Corepuncher
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 40
We hit my target of 1100-1120 on the S&P and initially I was only going to buy 50%. But, after the "spooky" drop on Thursday, I felt fear on Friday and my mind told me to buy into the fear.
This Europe contagion thing is not over...and we may go down more but I feel we are primed for at least a corrective bounce...possibly major. Looking for a 3-5% up day next week.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Larry Gellman says; "This week has provided yet another perfect example of why so many people hate the stock market. Perhaps something very bad is about to happen to our economy that we just can't see or feel right now. But it seems the bigger risk would be to sell good companies at what seem to be low prices, only to watch prices rise dramatically when the sense of panic lifts. For investors with a long term horizon and a tolerance for some risk and volatility, it seems we remain in a time of great opportunity for growth across a broad range of companies and sectors."
*****
I am uncertain about funds; F, C, S; but they do show (SOME?) hope?
I would strongly advise all others on the MB, to stay away from the I. The volcanic clouds
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&...=g-z1g1g-z2g6&aql=&oq=iceland+volcano&gs_rfai=
the PIIGS? multiple couintries going under
Great time to visit, cheap vacations?, but otherwise???
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
I'll be watching the bounce in the small caps.
From TWSJ: "Rising interest rates could be the biggest obstacle. Historically, small caps tend not to perform well in a rising-rate environment. Small companies are more economically sensitive to rising rates since that raises the cost of borrowing, which hits small-company profits harder. That would slow small-company earnings growth and right now small caps are an earnings story. Thus, as a stronger economy pushes up interest rates, the small-cap supremacy could finally end. Meanwhile, now might be the moment for investors to reevaluate brand-name, large-cap stocks. They have underperformed and remain relatively cheap, and they have proven businesses that survive good times and bad. On Wall Street, going against the crowd has often proved a winning strategy. Ultimately, it's just a matter of time before the long in the tooth small-cap rally fades. A decade is a long time for a sector to outperform on Wall Street."
Could we please have a 500 point Dow day and a 70 point SPX run.
fedgolfer
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 26
I guess the TV blowhards that say "bids dried up" on Thursday are not telling the full story that limit orders were there in the billions but were locked out on the NYSE and Nasdaq... only those fortunate enough to place bids in dark pools were let in at the firesale prices. Bids o' plenty today.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
The NYAD is rebounding nicely with a 30 to 1 ratio after testing support for the fourth time since October '09. We are now heading much higher into the rest of the summer - but I remain cognizant of the 4-year cycle nesting into Sept/Oct time period. Otherwise I want a 500 point Dow gain today - yes I'm greedy and proud of it. Snort.Similar threads
