Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Kar-Crazy,

I would get on this reverse train tomorrow - you are essentially on the bottom of this consolidation right now. We are somewhere between 6% and 9% on the give back. You can handle a little pain if it comes your way - we all endure these days of thunder nonsense and pain keeps the reality ticking. Absorb the remaining pain and enjoy the money machine on the way back to SPX 1300.

 

[XL-entLady]

Birch, we know that as a market recovers there's a rotation from the S Fund analog to the C analog. But do you really think that this is a recovery yet? And if I remember right, the C Fund analog holds almost 15% banking stocks. With the back-and-forth going on about financial accountability won't that dampen the C Fund for a bit?

Inquiring minds want to know. :cheesy:

 

[Birchtree]

My dear Lady, the banks are doing just fine. I actually found out today that I have one being bought out. The S fund will still have performance - but the C fund I believe will start to outperform going forward. I just don't wish to be over weight the S fund at this point in the market cycle - small caps had recently achieved a 112% gain off the March low. Let's watch and see how the small caps rebound when the next leg of the bull kicks in. The best value available right now is the I fund - the eurozone problems are being overplayed - anyway that's what makes a market. The dollar has gotten ahead of itself and will test down to the 80 level I think. With mom and pop not in this market yet I have to remain strong and long - still working on my second $M. Providing I don't get blowed out in the next two weeks.

 

[turbo23dog]

I threw my 10% G fund reserve into I fund COB today. Had my cup of Birchjuice to gird the loins and I'm now holding 45/45/10 CSI.

 

[XL-entLady]

My dear Lady, the banks are doing just fine. .....still working on my second $M. Providing I don't get blowed out in the next two weeks.

Thanks for your valued opinion, on this and several other things. And I'll raise a cup of cheer to that second million!

 

[FAB1]

hey BT. you mentioned a buying spike would send VIX to celler... so heavy volume buy or sell doesnt cause it to rise??

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX will rise on fear like yesterday hitting the 40 level. When the market rallies the VIX will drift downward - a nice buy spike would send it spinning lower. When it breaks below the 20 level indicates a good degree of comfort with the market - so right now the market is edgy and a perfect time to invest. Buy the panic, don't sell.

 

[nnuut]

So where is the Bottom Birch? NOBODY KNOWS!!!!
I'm waiting for a turn around and conformation, buy low, sell high!

 

[Birchtree]

I'll know when we reach the bottom because I'll be standing on it. Right now I'm standing on a 5 inch curb so the street isn't that much further down. Let'em cut and run - this is great scary stuff. They are not going to scare me out of this market - I can take the hits and keep on tickin. I think we may bottom today with the kangaroo tail in process.

 

[Birchtree]

It would appear that the R2K has reached the correction phase giving back better than 10% - the SPX is not there yet. And I don't think the SPX will get there before we bottom. I'm just going to hold my own here - I have stocks posting increased dividends and I like that - so I'm holding my asset base for the next leg up. But the lamb chop account is ready to cover my butt if necessary - that's called planning ahead for nasty times like now.

 

[Birchtree]

"This has proven to be a relatively reliable buy indicator in each of the last three market sell-offs."

http://pragcap.com/26-of-stocks-now-below-50-day-moving-average

 

[JimmyJoe]

I guarantee the emotions will be sky high on Monday when they declare the oil containment box a success. Stocks will soar. Politicians will declare victory. They are getting their speeches ready presently. This one is too easy.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm on your coat tails on this one - the truck is loaded and ready to roll.

 

[amoeba]

I'm on your coat tails on this one - the truck is loaded and ready to roll.

Rolling where? downhill? The problem with the I-fund is that, technically, when it breaks the 200 DMA like it has - and it has done this every time over the last 8 years.....it generally goes south, it does NOT reverse on a dime. When it does this, it can go for months, years, of WAY below the 200 DMA. Definitely a high beta index. There's money to be made quickly, and well as lost. There's alot of time on that EFA that proved NOT to be good to buy in. As I said earlier: picking that bottom is a hard one.

The last time it did this (crushed the 200 DMA) ...in 2008, if memory serves......it did deadcat once before falling off a cliff. Yours is a brave, bold, knife-catching-type move.

I'd wish you luck, but that would be like wishing bad luck on me, since I have nothing in I-fund. And I have no intention of touching it any time soon.

 

[Birchtree]

Enjoy those 297 C fund shares you will accumulate today. You're on your way. But right now you are in my tracker spot at #82 - but that won't last long. Can you smell that sweet superlative bull manure I left behind marking my area.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Amoeba you said it. "Technically" the I fund may look bad but it is the only fund that is doing well. But I just have to go with the flow on this one. Sometimes a little emotion will go a long way. I was emoting about going 50g 50f on last Tuesday. Now that would have be nice. However, I've been mostly in and I'll take what I can get. The stocks have been down too long and the politicians, TV crews, and talking heads are getting lined up to praise the successful oil box and American worker ingenuity as we all watch the stocks and funds move up on Monday.:toung:

 

[Steadygain]

Seems like every other person will ask me, 'Who's your favorite raindeer'?


I'm like you've got to be kiddin' me. Vixen of course.

Have ya ever been with her at the stoke of midnight? :nuts:

 

[Elgallo]

Witchy Woman by The Eagles

Raven hair and ruby lips
Sparks fly from her finger tips
Echoed voices in the night
She?s a restless spirit on an endless flight
Wooo hooo witchy woman, see how
High she flies
Woo hoo witchy woman she got
The moon in her eye
She held me spellbound in the night
Dancing shadows and firelight
Crazy laughter in another
Room and she drove herself to madness
With a silver spoon
Woo hoo witchy woman see how high she flies
Woo hoo witchy woman she got the moon in her eye
Well I know you want a lover,
Let me tell your brother, she?s been sleeping
In the devil?s bed.
And there?s some rumors going round
Someone?s underground
She can rock you in the nighttime
?til your skin turns red
Woo hoo witchy woman
See how high she flies
Woo hoo witchy woman
She got the moon in her eye

 

[amoeba]

how to prepare for downdaze

... The stocks have been down too long .....

4 days? you have a low tolerance for pain......20 european countries are not like one usa green ink printing press......this may linger longer if for no other reason that euros take forever to agree on anything even if they do agree......so be prepared to get used to it (down days), by practicing saying this (an assistant with a paddle will help):

"Thank you master....may I have another?"

(-revenge of the nerds-)

 

[Elgallo]

There was more money lost yesterday in the US markets than what Greece GDP is worth in its totality.

Did ya notice that today the I fund was the best performing of the three. Just a small observation.

Bought about 5k worth of it today with some of the proceeds from selling into developing weakness about a week ago. I wanted to reduce my exposure due to the dollar rise. Sold at 18 and change or so, and bought back at about $2 or so less. No IFT remaining for May.


G 1%
C 48%
S 30%
I 21%