Birchtree's Account Talk

[Bullitt]

Are you predicting a mass rush to the fire exits in the near future?

 

[Warrenlm]

Yeah, O Owner of Ferdinand. You had moved your timing of a correction to September, with footnotes of course. Are you seeing, or just seeding, a near term alarm?

 

[Birchtree]

I'm just cognizant of the two and four year cycles that are due in the summer and fall. Some don't believe in cycles and that can be costly - sometimes they can be extended but they always nest.

 

[Birchtree]

"Ina sense, the market continues to make a mockery of the sentiment indicators."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/16550/investor-sentiment-mockery

I think it's time to do some more buying while the money is available.

 

[Birchtree]

Ferdinand says buy'em early and often: TWIN, AVY, CX, CE, RKT, BTU, GCI, ZEP. If we can move higher I'll be back with more buys - there are just so many that want inclusion.

 

[Warrenlm]

You posted Marty's concerns about China before. His missive of today repeats his concerns and times it to the summer. Is that influencing your thinking of a move up from September? (Back to your original thinking of June).
http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[Birchtree]

There is always going to be a catalyst that will set the trigger and China could do it for the four year cycle nesting into October - we rally from that bottom into the year end. Of course only mother of Allah knows for sure or perhaps the Shadow may have a constructive idea. All we can do is play the odds and hedge our bets.

 

[Bullitt]

All we can do is play the odds and hedge our bets.

You buying CDO's now?

I had to do a double take and I'm still not sure if I can believe my eyes. Did we just have a down day on a Monday? Ahh, I knew I was wrong. Up .75 points on the Nasdaq.

 

[Frixxxx]

I had to do a double take and I'm still not sure if I can believe my eyes. Did we just have a down day on a Monday?

Yes, I did a double take as well....might be time to start thinking about hedging into May....:blink:

 

[anthony]

Yes, I did a double take as well....might be time to start thinking about hedging into May....:blink:

It had a down day feel and will be reflected for TSP funds, but DJI and DJT both closed with new 1-year highs.

Strange, bonds also went lower. That money went somewhere ...

 

[grandma]

Yes, I did a double take as well....might be time to start thinking about hedging into May....:blink:

is it going to help or deter, that the first trading day in May is a Monday ???
:suspicious: May is May, but Mondays are no longer Mondays???

 

[FAB1]

is it going to help or deter, that the first trading day in May is a Monday ???
:suspicious: May is May, but Mondays are no longer Mondays???

Who said?? Mondays are ALWAYS Mondays, when I have to get up and go to work!

Actually, today wasnt that bad, hang in there cuz APRIL IS APRIL .

 

[Steadygain]

Birch,

I'm really scared about things right now ~ mainly because of the Gulf getting destroyed. I think the 42,000 Gallons spilling out (per day) is a media 'cover up' to down play what's really going on.

I do know that the Deep Ocean ~ the Gulf itself is getting destroyed with all the Oil getting out. From there it hits the shallow water and destroys all that and then the Gulf Coast with 3 States largely getting destoryed.

Man it's crazy Birch because first the Oil is majorly 'Toxic' and then it gets the ugly 'sticky' that ruins everything.

Anyway -- I'm seriously thinking of going to G Fund before it hits the Gulf Coast and things get really bad.

What do you think Birch ?

Do you think the Markets will be able to blow it off ?

 

[Tsunami]

~ the Gulf itself is getting destroyed with all the Oil getting out.

Steady,

At 42,000 gallons per day it would take about 260 days to equal the 11 million gallon spill from the Exxon Valdez in 1989. It's also a "sweeter" crude that I believe is a little less toxic and easier to clean up than the Alaskan spill. They're working hard to vacuum it up while repairs are being made to stop the leak, so it will never reach the proportions of the Exxon Valdez spill. Don't get me wrong, it's a disaster for the marine life in that area and for wildlife wherever it hits the shore, but if you check a chart of the stock market in 1989 (it started on March 24, 1989) I doubt there was even a noticeable blip of an affect on the stock market from the Exxon Valdez, nor will there be from this in my opinion.

 

[Steadygain]

Steady,

At 42,000 gallons per day it would take about 260 days to equal the 11 million gallon spill from the Exxon Valdez in 1989. It's also a "sweeter" crude that I believe is a little less toxic and easier to clean up than the Alaskan spill. They're working hard to vacuum it up while repairs are being made to stop the leak, so it will never reach the proportions of the Exxon Valdez spill. Don't get me wrong, it's a disaster for the marine life in that area and for wildlife wherever it hits the shore, but if you check a chart of the stock market in 1989 (it started on March 24, 1989) I doubt there was even a noticeable blip of an affect on the stock market from the Exxon Valdez, nor will there be from this in my opinion.

Thanks man !!

Much appreciated -- cause the Valdez spill is the only thing I have to relate to. I hope you're right !!!

Will stay where I am -- thanks again.

 

[Uptrend]

Birch,

I'm really scared about things right now ~ mainly because of the Gulf getting destroyed. I think the 42,000 Gallons spilling out (per day) is a media 'cover up' to down play what's really going on.

Anyway -- I'm seriously thinking of going to G Fund before it hits the Gulf Coast and things get really bad.

This is what you need to be scared of:

http://news.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474978200504

 

[XL-entLady]

Birch, ol' buddy, can you tell me how I can be such an old biddy and such a chicklett at the same time? :cheesy: Maybe I'm a chicken who is entering her second childhood? :blink:

Okay, Lady, put down the keyboard and back away slowly.

 

[tom1tom1]

This is what you need to be scared of:

http://news.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474978200504

I agree. Hope yellowstone isn't next. And also no more oil disasters!

 

[amoeba]

Birch,

I'm really scared about things right now ~ mainly because of the Gulf getting destroyed. I think the 42,000 Gallons spilling out (per day) is a media 'cover up' to down play what's really going on.

I do know that the Deep Ocean ~ the Gulf itself is getting destroyed with all the Oil getting out. From there it hits the shallow water and destroys all that and then the Gulf Coast with 3 States largely getting destoryed.

Man it's crazy Birch because first the Oil is majorly 'Toxic' and then it gets the ugly 'sticky' that ruins everything.

Anyway -- I'm seriously thinking of going to G Fund before it hits the Gulf Coast and things get really bad.

What do you think Birch ?

Do you think the Markets will be able to blow it off ?

I'm not sure about Birch, but I agree with everything you said and still think the market will not consider it.....as long as the oil flow is maintained on the rest of the wells.

 

[Steadygain]

I'm not sure about Birch, but I agree with everything you said and still think the market will not consider it.....as long as the oil flow is maintained on the rest of the wells.

Well I guess at times I may go to Birch as more of a big brother and kind of hoping for input that he may some how sense better than me.

On the whole the opinions of others brings little comfort to something I've already deeply comtemplated.

I believe the Markets will respond way more NEGATIVELY to the Oil Spill, in conjunction with other Natural Disasters, than to anything like Greece -- Goldman Sachs -- and the other things many others are focused on.

Something BIG like Yellowstone -- or the California one along with others -- and tornados that are a mile wide -- will have a toll.