Birchtree's Account Talk

[anthony]

I believe I will burn my 10% G cash position COB 4/19. We haven't had many back to back negative days lately and perhaps Monday will be the charm.

I also like the way you think. I'm not convinced that a one-day less than 2% drop is going to help make this a great opportunity, but all the momentum is probably going to kill any chance for a 5% drop.

Ideally, I'd like to see a "Sunday Edition Effect" where all the couch potatoes crack open the paper today or talk to their buddies on the golf course, and find out about Goldman, a big drop in the market and Icelandic volcanoes, and then figure the end must be nigh. That could lead to some additional sell-off, hopefully taking us down to S&P 1150 or -5% from the top.

More realistically, there's so much bullish momentum in this thing and so many people trying to get back in that every little dip is being snatched up before it has a chance to put in a more "real" consolidation (say 5%). So if we get an additional 3.5% and if we do hit 1150, I'm guessing it hits intraday and bounces.

I'm moving back in, but I'll probably burn both IFTs to do it in a DCA-Type approach. We'll see how tomorrow starts out to confirm my theory.

Good luck. Nice post from oracle by the way. Confirms more of my thinking.

 

[Birchtree]

"Many small investors are still watching the rally from the sidelines. Through mid-April, investors have put about $6 billion of new money into domestic stock funds so far this year, according to Lipper data. By contrast, they've invested just over $101 billion in taxable and minicipal bonds. Investors still remember the panic in 2008 and are understandably nervous, but continuing to wait for the pullbacks in this market has been a losing game so far. Schwab suggests investors put their money back to work in stocks on a regular basis over time, a strategy known as dollar-cost averaging, so that they can take advantage of any upcoming dips."

 

[fedgolfer]

Birch, taking in some stray dogs has been rewarding as of late, huh? C, F and even ABK.

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.safehaven.com/article/16489/this-could-turn-out-to-be-very-scary

 

[Boghie]

I now have a special place in my heart for Goldman Sachs and the SEC...

It is rather hard to take advantage of this stupa-move if you have no assets to move. I moved my allocation (with my last IFT) to a 100% equities stake earlier this month.

I know Tsunami, CoolHand, JTH, and Bullitt are ready to click there little mousie.

Maybe Birch too

Too bad money can't be made on easy calls like the above

The Bozos in this Administration think they are punishing GS. My money is that they drop the charges - after a couple of years.

My guess is that this market starts growing again tomorrow toward the end of earnings season - then, bang...

 

[Birchtree]

"Grantham says the rally has been driven by Federal Reserve policy that has encouraged speculation, and he says that during speculative times such solid, steady blue chips don't excel. But he thinks we're in for several years of slow browth and these are the types of companies that will fare well in such an environment." I'll be right sooner or later.

http://theguruinvestor.com/2010/04/19/grantham-talks-valuations-bubbles

 

[Steadygain]

Goldman will report their earnings on Tuesday and I suspect they will blow out all estimates - the SEC case is a joke.

This was predicted -- way back when we were just emerging from the caves....


GS Shares up 2% in pre Market Trading

Reported 3.5 Billion in earnings -- which means they probably had more like 800 Billion worldwide. :laugh:

So anyone looking for 'Bullish News' -- this is the place.

 

[Birchtree]

We just went through the Dow 200 week MA of 11,133. The 61.8% retrace of 11232 is next.

 

[Bullitt]

Yeah, but now that the growth engine of the galaxy, China (SSEC) has broken uptrend support along with the 200 DMA to the downside, should we still be buying the dips?

View attachment 9069

JTH- Your color commentary?

 

[FAB1]

We just went through the Dow 200 week MA of 11,133. The 61.8% retrace of 11232 is next.

soundz good to me . ill be regaining my eariler pos. on tracker and maybe more as some of our leaders have decided on safety.

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX at 15.93 off 1.41 could be signaling a Dow move of up 100 points - the NYSE is now pushing towards that mark +74.58. I should be a buyer today but instead I'm resting with my feet elevated - thinking about the purchase of wall flowers tomorrow. I'm forcing myself to be disciplined in the face of triumph.

 

[JTH]

Yeah, but now that the growth engine of the galaxy, China (SSEC) has broken uptrend support along with the 200 DMA to the downside, should we still be buying the dips?

View attachment 9069

JTH- Your color commentary?

This is a wholy un-natural move. I would have to believe there is something news driven that I'm not aware of. The candle lies (it's not as big as the price drop) in that it gapped down at the 200 EMA. This is the strongest downside move I've seen on an index, since 2007.

 

[Birchtree]

See my post #8206 for further perspective on China.

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/goldman-sachs-buy-china-on-the-dip

http://pragcap.com/jpm-correction-coming-but-will-be-short-lived

"BlackRock is still wildly bullish on the markets."

http://pragcap.com/blackrock-buy-any-dips

 

[Steadygain]

"BlackRock is still wildly bullish on the markets."

Should we consider changing the motto: Friends don't let friends...


to something shorter -- more concise ...


BE IN - TO WIN

 

[grandma]

Should we consider changing the motto: Friends don't let friends...
to something shorter -- more concise ...
BE IN - TO WIN

- steady, are you meaning what you are saying here?
"Friends don't let friends be in to win" ?????????????? :cheesy:

 

[Steadygain]

- steady, are you meaning what you are saying here?
"Friends don't let friends be in to win" ?????????????? :cheesy:

Yeah it's kind of strange -- as you've been part of the board for yrs


Seemed for the longest time Birch stood against everyone (me too) and especially the ruling authority -- Don't let friends B&H. It's kind of funny because I saw it as more an 'Act of Defiance' :worried: And he actually sounded way more abrasive back then.

It may be that I was just too new -- to know him.

Back then -- I didn't think other B&Hers were even around.

Well Grandma

I'm really hoping -- IN to WIN -- means 5 to 8% Gains on a weekly basis for the next 2 months.


Hey I just noticed your signiture -- hmmmm... couldn't that be regarded as 'sexist'

 

[grandma]

Hey I just noticed your signiture -- hmmmm... couldn't that be regarded as 'sexist'

Hey ! Now THAT is a thought !
For you, Steadygain - I'll just be a `GrandPerson'
I don't mind that a bit - well, it is a bit embarrassing to be the one to say it about myself, but , for you, dear SG - we'll let that slide............this time.


View attachment 9078

 

[Steadygain]

Hey ! Now THAT is a thought !
For you, Steadygain - I'll just be a `GrandPerson'
I don't mind that a bit - well, it is a bit embarrassing to be the one to say it about myself, but , for you, dear SG - we'll let that slide............this time.


View attachment 9078

Thank You !!!! Sweet doll !!


Perfect way to end the night !!!!

 

[Boghie]

See my post #8206 for further perspective on China.

China's stock market and accounting rules make the robber barrons of the 1860s look angelic.

No transparency.
Graft and Corruption.
A ton of gubmint interference.
And, very wasteful use of resources.​

I would rather invest in WorldComm and/or ENRON.

Right now:nuts: