Birchtree's Account Talk

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Birchtree said:
Perhaps the next leg up will start on Monday - so I'll wait for it. There are no sellers at this point - only buyers like me.
Click to expand...

There was a guy on the floor of the exchange on CNBC just before the close that said just that, that there are no sellers and traders were getting ready for another strong move higher "very soon" he said. Today was the second day in a row with a small move in the McClellen Oscillator. That almost always means a big move is coming within a day or two....the next trading day is a Monday, hmmm, I wonder which way that big move will be.... :toung:
 
Birch -- just noticed you need to make ONE more post.


If you leave the house now --- you'll die --- never make it back.
 
Tsunami said:
the next trading day is a Monday, hmmm, I wonder which way that big move will be.... :toung:
Click to expand...

Yeah no kidding. Somebody will gas the futures higher Sunday night and save humanity from those evil villain bears. The only ones that hate Mondays anymore are short sellers.
 
Birchtree said:
"Can Blogs Help You Invest?"

http://pragcap.com/chart-of-the-day-can-blogs-help-you-invest
Click to expand...


It's true, I've seen it myself on several occasions. You have to be careful when reading bloggers because they can obscure your outlook. I've developed my own personal policy on this.

I always go over my charts and make my decisions first. If I have time, then I may go over some youtube videos and blogs.

But the thing is, I've learned to never let them change my mind, and I NEVER IFT in the morning. It's too easy to let a few hours of price action lead you into a bad decision.

JMHO
 
Finally after 53 weeks from the March 9th bottom I find some success in my oceanic account by achieving $1014K. Now it'll be interesting to see how many weeks it will take to get to the next level at $2014K - that's $2M and $14K. I bet I do it within 40 weeks.

New all time highs on the NYAD cumulative daily index.
The NYSE breadth MCSUM has broken above its resistance line - now resides at +1109.78 on the way to 1500.
Longer term money flow remains positive at new all time highs.

From the print edition of TWSJ on 3/12. "Assets in money-market funds slumped $36.22 billion in the latest week. The withdrawals add to a recent streak of money-market outflows, extending the nine week trend that has amounted to about $225 billion in outflows, as reported by ICI. Cash has been leaving money-market funds as investors seek higher returns; yields have been close to zero (0.02%) for months. For the week ended Wednesday, total fund assets dropped to $3.09 trillion." That money would take me to Dow 17,000.
 
"We will get another clue this week, because now the Sun will make the same translation with the first a conjunction to Uranus on March 17, followed by an opposition to Saturn on March 21, and finally the square to Pluto on March 25. If that too coincides with rising equity prices, then I think it is quite possible this bull market could soar another 20+% by August." Take me to the moon, please.

http://www.mmacycles.com/
 
Laszlo Birinyi says; "the 69% gain for the SPX index since the March 9th low last year is just the beginning of a bull market that may last through the next Presidential election. Stocks will advance as the economy gains momentum and the fastest corporate earnings growth since 1994 persuades investors to shift into stocks from bonds. The average bull market since the 1960s has lasted more than 1,000 trading days while this one is just over 250 days old. By any definition it is a bull market, and there's no stronger force in the market than momentum. This bull will last until at least April 2013." Now that's hot.
 
Here are what the C/S/I funds looked like in the past.

10/12/07 $17.53 - $21.25 - $25.84

3/9/09 $7.86 - $9.06 - $10.29

3/12/10 $13.69 - $17.97 - $18.53

This tells me there is still plenty of time for new TSP folks to get golden prices.
 
Birch,

Those were quite yummy share prices...
I dipped them in a melted butter and garlic sauce...

Your idea to beef up my contributions in the teeth of the thing made me lots of duckets. But, you ain't getting any:p

Just kudos - right here on this board.

Thanks.
 
And when you increased your contributions it took courage to throw good money down a smelly, stinky, well - but you must of had faith in the great American economy. Now you get to DCA all the way back to those top prices - just think how many more shares you'll accumulate to feather that retirement. I miss my DCAs already but I'm looking forward to pushing multi-thousands of shares around at essentially no cost - now that's a great benefit that all members should take into account especially as we get older.
 
Birchtree said:
"Dow Theory Update"

http://safehaven.com/article-16085.htm

Be patient Woody, just be patient.
Click to expand...

I think he's one of the first I've seen refer to what we are in as a "secular bear market." Whether this bull corrects or consolidates in the near future, it is hard to consider it anything other than a secular bull.

I get what he's saying about the theory not being confirmed, but to label this one-year move as mere bear market rally seems to invalidate some of his other writing.
 
Anthony,

Woody is always a bear - even in the good times. Here's a little something for you:

"Bespoke: Large caps vs small caps. Based on the relatonship between the SPX and R2K, relative performance between large and small cap stocks follow long-term cyclical trends. Periods of outperformance and underperformance by either category are measured in years rather than months. Even with the typical cycle lasting several years, though, the current cycle has been the longest of them all. (see graph) After peaking out in 1999, large caps have been consistently underperforming small caps for ten years and counting. When it ends is anyone's guess, but it's hard to argue that large caps are at least due for their day in the sun."

http://safehaven.com/article-16090.htm part 2.
 
Birch,
What is meant by your "oceanic account".
Is this the type of account?
Still trying to learn here.. :)
Thanks!
Bryan
 
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