Birchtree's Account Talk

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Handballer said:
I see you as our savior leading us in the wright direction. I'm gonna take some % away from the G fund and add it to the C fund. That will be my last IFT for the month.
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Handballer just to make sure you understand the 2 transfer per month rule. You are always aloud to pull out of stocks and back into the G fund. If you wanted to you could keep moving 1% per day back to the G until you ran out of days in the month.

I think we will see more positive movement this month and agree with your move.:D
 
Handballer said:
I see you as our savior leading us in the wright direction. I'm gonna take some % away from the G fund and add it to the C fund. That will be my last IFT for the month.
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I hate when I see posts like this. Birch has never been bearish so please, don't let his confidence be your guide. Sure the market looks good and can go higher, and I hope to ride it up until the technical picture tells me otherwise, but he was saying the same thing in mid-2007 right before all hell broke loose. Here's an example:

A post from May 7, 2007:
Birchtree said:
You don't get rich by following the crowd. You make money by blazing a new trail. We are now above the all-time highs in the ratio adjusted NYAD. Because of this, the market is totally in the clear to move to places not thought of before to the upside. There is no breadth resistance anymore to impede this progress. This is why we continue to see day after day of positive breadth plurality with maybe a one or two day pause before moving higher again. What we want to see in a Primary 3 of higher degree advance is for both breadth and volume plurality to expand dramatically. We are presently in melt-up conditions. This next phase of the bull market will definitely not be one investors will want to be watching from the sidelines, as the gains are likely to be the most explosive that investors have seen since the late 1990's. With the A/D line there doesn't seem to be any leveling off of money flow at this time. Break-away gaps are rarely filled in total and seldom are they filled by more than 50%. I'm remaining bullish until 2010 - waiting for the nesting of this 4 year cycle.
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Or how about this one from a couple days later?
Birchtree said:
He's only one lone voice in the wilderness and has been on the wrong side all the way up - now he seeks redemption. Tom will also eventually throw in the towel and get on board for this mega run. Everything takes time and there is still plenty of money to be made - be right and sit tight. Snort.
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Sound familiar?

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Please, think for yourself. Having a one track mind has its pitfalls and if the market decides to tank again, you and Birch will be going down together.
 
Well that May, 2007 post sounds just like it fits for our present times. I don't ask that anyone follow me to the dungeon because I take my own route. But I do like to make money and today is no exception. Snort. As a reminder the market didn't tank for five months later - the arrow is off a little. I wish I was perfect but I'm only a permabull and this ride is delightful.
 
I figure that I can ride the stock funds up or sideways or slightly down for now. Hopefully up, but when they tumble fast, I'll jump back to the pond ASAP and wait for some more upward movement and get back in later. It's pretty sweet to be able to just make the decision yourself with TSP and a click of the mouse (in delay mode, unfortunately). Nobody else to blame if things go wrong.
 
If we can go positive and hold for an hour I'm ready to jump in front of the train and do more buying. I'm going to DCA into my lamb chop account - mostly energy type stocks.
 
I'm waiting and watching the VIX soften. If we could get to 1150 on the SPX I think that would cause many bears to hang up their suits and join the herd - you know they have to be in pain.
 
Birchtree said:
There is a nice bearish article - "Anatomy of Blow Off Tops" by Cooper over on http:www.minyanville.com for anyone interested.
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Sorry BT, I don't lend credibility to ANYONE who factors the full moon into their charting. That's what I call "grasping at straws."

"As you may recall, a few weeks ago I touched on the new moon of March 15 as coinciding with some powerful more esoteric cycles."
 
I try and read the Merriman Market Analyst at http://mmacycles.com/ every week. If last year was truly the bottom of the last bear, it will take the record for the shortest. I want to do some buying right now but I'm holding to my discipline of only buying on up days.
 
Birch,
I see you post every now and then what you are going to buy. Do you buy and hold these individual stocks, or sell after a month or so?

I know you are a bullish investor, just wondering if you sell other stock when you make purchases like these.

(if you don't mind me asking. :) )
 
I only like to sell when it becomes a scarifice to buy something else. During the spring and summer of 2008 I sold my commodity stocks inorder to purchase a portfolio of 45 toxic waste financial stocks. That was a very prescient move. I own 317 individual stocks that I call wall flowers in my oceanic account. I'm now building a separate account to act as a sentinel to protect my oceanic from a margin call. I like to reinvest all my dividends currently. I'll be glad to answer any questions you may have.
 
This V shaped move attracts more buyers the more extended it becomes. As Ritholtz says; "The easy trade now would be to move to cash amid fears that the rally is petering out - but he adds that over the years he's found that the easy trades aren't usually the ones that make him money." Getting to the 160 month moving average at 1158 and holding that level would be the next step in establishing whether or not the market is in bull mode. Today getting past 1150.23 is a bullish sign and should mean that it can keep going until its next level of resistance at 1228 where it will have retraced 61.8% of its losses. Tomorrow could be very hot. No waterfall decline until early April. Snort.
 
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