Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

"March, April, and May are seasonally the strongest months of the year for the S&P 500. Combine that with the fact the breadth figures have been stronger than the SPX's actual price rise, and that positive 4Q09 earnings and revenue surprises have exceeded 70%, and we see no reason to alter our 1200-1250 intermediate term price target."

http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Buying in early and often on the highs: RKT, PCX, MEE, HUN. There are just so many opportunities that provide immense potential.

 

[Birchtree]

Doing a little more buying before we crack 10,600: RT, KWR, ARM, APU. I'll chase this momentum all day long because we are going higher.

"Failure of the SP500/VIX ratio to sustain recent gains would coincide with a clear technical failure and add more conviction to the technically-oriented equity watchers."
Look at the 2003 trend line resistance break for future promise.

http://safehaven.com/article-16034.htm

 

[Birchtree]

It's stocks gone wild - let's burn the 1050 level today to celebrate the young bull birth. This market has years to run so buy early and enjoy the ride.

 

[Birchtree]

"The sentiment signals are starting to stack up against the bulls."

http://pragcap.com/portfolio-managers-are-bullish

 

[FAB1]

Birch wish you all the best.

Almost went straight over to the C fund, but I didn't want to buy into a top which may be where we are at, don't know. That VIX spike chart I saw on here probably spooked me . Comfortable spending the time reevaluating on the side for a few days. Let's see how the week rolls. I think I played out the I fund IMO and needed to jump. Maybe a dip will have me in quickly or I'll be chasing you, time will tell.
Keep up the good work and I do enjoy your bullish banter.

So wish I would have been doing TSP when it came out for us in my first life. Live and learn.

BT wants to spook us so he can climb in the tracker - BOO!

 

[Bullitt]

"The sentiment signals are starting to stack up against the bulls."

http://pragcap.com/portfolio-managers-are-bullish

The CBOE Put/Call ratio just blew below .50 and almost hit .40 today.

 

[WorkFE]

That is true Bullitt but lately we've seen sentiment turn both direction in the blink of an eye.
Recently there has been no difference between the B&H and timers except where their buying and holding.
Sentiment seems to have frozen some people who would otherwise be movers and shakers. If we do get a dip I'm not sure it would be big enough to unfreeze those that are stuck in neutral. One of the reason I made the move was because I was becoming fiscally paralized. Win or lose I feel better now.

 

[Boghie]

Sentiment seems to have frozen some people who would otherwise be movers and shakers. If we do get a dip I'm not sure it would be big enough to unfreeze those that are stuck in neutral. One of the reason I made the move was because I was becoming fiscally paralized. Win or lose I feel better now.

Kinda like the thought

I bailed out of F holdings because they seemed to be a dead zone. This market seems rather flat, but there is an upside. If 'The One' and Congress would shut up I think we would be in a boom. Well, they can only talk so much. They are about to wind themselves...

 

[Birchtree]

Buying some of my favorites on the high again - adding to my base: BCS, UBS, GWR, HHS, KBH, DHI. I need to DCA into my lamb chop account also before they get away from me, so I'll probably return if we move even higher back above 10,600. Snort.

 

[dannyboy]

Kinda like the thought

I bailed out of F holdings because they seemed to be a dead zone. This market seems rather flat, but there is an upside. If 'The One' and Congress would shut up I think we would be in a boom. Well, they can only talk so much. They are about to wind themselves...

I am kind of sick of staying at mixed %'s (tracker=300+). I think the S is going to be very good through March? So, I am going all the way.
S-100% , ROLL-THE-DICE

 

[Birchtree]

dannyboy,

I hope you own a bungie cord.

 

[Birchtree]

"The Markets Keep Going Up and You've Missed It." Not me I caught every nickel off the lows but it took mounds of courage and my special pair of sticky pants. And having the best investment adviser cat anybody could ask for certainly helped. Mindylou says the VIX will drop into the 16 level before the close.

http://safehaven.com/article-16048.htm

 

[JTH]

http://safehaven.com/article-16048.htm

"There was a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines, and institutional investors smelled a great opportunity, and it's really the big investors that drive the markets in a significant manner, and that's really what it's been all about."

Thanks BT, this fits right inline with the discussion of the PVI/NVI indicators in my latest blog.

 

[Birchtree]

JTH - exactly.

"Looking back all the way to 1900 chart of market I've never seen a major top without breadth deteriorating for many months or even a year or more before a major bear...market breadth is extremely positive right now."

http://safehaven.com/article-16052.htm

 

[Birchtree]

I don't know about anyone else but my feeling is we are setting up for one mean melt-up buying panic - enough of a move to create real damage in the bear arena. Some say there is no way this bull can run further without the participation of the housing sector or consumer spending. We don't need their participation because this market and recovery will be powered in large part by exports and business capex spending - that's all we need for the rest of this year and then mom and pop will return to blast us further up the valley. I'm staying heavy with the C fund because over 50% of those company revenues come from overseas. The emerging economies are showing hot growth and those markets should lead to further upside for our markets. Be in to win.

 

[WorkFE]

Come on BT, is that all you got, say it with conviction man.

 

[JTH]

I'm staying heavy with the C fund because over 50% of those company revenues come from overseas.

I would have thought the same thing, but the large caps have been underperforming.

I-fund is dicy, Greece will sort things out this Thursday, then everyone will focus on Spain and Spain's larger more robust economy will shake things up.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm ready for an afternoon nap - see you all later.

 

[Handballer]

I don't know about anyone else but my feeling is we are setting up for one mean melt-up buying panic - enough of a move to create real damage in the bear arena. Some say there is no way this bull can run further without the participation of the housing sector or consumer spending. We don't need their participation because this market and recovery will be powered in large part by exports and business capex spending - that's all we need for the rest of this year and then mom and pop will return to blast us further up the valley. I'm staying heavy with the C fund because over 50% of those company revenues come from overseas. The emerging economies are showing hot growth and those markets should lead to further upside for our markets. Be in to win.

I see you as our savior leading us in the wright direction. I'm gonna take some % away from the G fund and add it to the C fund. That will be my last IFT for the month.