Birchtree's Account Talk

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I actually just increased my position in the I fund at $17.61 and it's now at $18.66. There will still be growth available even with a stronger dollar - but I will lessen my position in the I fund as well as we move into the four year time cycle. My plan is to be at least 30% G by the time trouble arrives in the fall. If we miss the correction then I'm going back to the S fund and I fund. The hardest time to move away from the funds is when everything is going great - but it's necessary to preserve some capital.
 
wantbullishtsp said:
Does anyone know what the symbol is for the S Fund. I thought it was DWCPF and tracked by the Wilshire 4500. :confused:
Click to expand...

I think it is DWCF. It is now the Dow Jones Total US Market. It was renamed recently. If you go to TSP.gov and click on fund sheets on the far right and then S Fund, it explains the change.
 
Another quote from my above link. "If all markets do enter a final runaway move, the S&P could rocket up to the 1300-1400 level in a matter of months." That's hot.
 
Today we had the highest number of new yearly highs since 2005. Yes, Betula papyrifera is on a nice roll. There are two cycles which are soon going to interfere with this advance - the 2 year cycle bottoming in July and the 4 year cycle making its low in the fall. Just so you momentum chasers know what is in your future - me, I'm staying in front of the train until later. We are obviously starting the second phase of the bull market and so far the sweet smell of superlative manure is keeping the bears away.
 
I saw the large caps were the ones with the bigger moves today. I'm sure that made you a happy.

With sizable allotments in the C Fund we need some large cap fuel to stay in the passing lane.
 
Birchtree said:
Today we had the highest number of new yearly highs since 2005. Yes, Betula papyrifera is on a nice roll. There are two cycles which are soon going to interfere with this advance - the 2 year cycle bottoming in July and the 4 year cycle making its low in the fall. Just so you momentum chasers know what is in your future - me, I'm staying in front of the train until later. We are obviously starting the second phase of the bull market and so far the sweet smell of superlative manure is keeping the bears away.
Click to expand...

I thought the 2-year hit in April-May?
 
Anthony,

It's the nine month cycle that comes in the first week of April - although these cycles may vary at times. Now that everyone and their sister owns the S fund it may be time to slow its outperformance and let the rest catch up. There are more good things working in favor of the large caps for this second leg.
 
Birchtree said:
Mcqlives,

Would suggest you read my post #7958 and look at the graph - that'll give you a nice hint. I'm very light on the S fund and will be out of it completely by July-August.
Click to expand...

Thanks! That is what I get for getting too busy to read everything on your thread! I think I'll hold on to most of my S till the end of the month and use a move putting more into C (leaving my I at 20% for now). Whatever allocation I end up doing in a week should take me into the summer!
 
JTH said:
Birchtree, tell all your minions to make an exit for the G-Fund. I've climbed up the tracker this month, and would like to push some more folks aside before it's all said and done.
Click to expand...

Buy & Holders, you need to step aside, you're getting in my way again. I implore you to remove your sticky pants, I beg of you Buy & Holders to please exit now for your own good. This is not a safe market to be in, it could crash at any second, rememeber 1987?

It's time to take your gains off the table...
 
JTH said:
Buy & Holders, you need to step aside, you're getting in my way again. I implore you to remove your sticky pants, I beg of you Buy & Holders to please exit now for your own good. This is not a safe market to be in, it could crash at any second, rememeber 1987?

It's time to take your gains off the table...
Click to expand...
I ....hear.....voices.....must....resist.....profit taking:toung:
 
The SPY has now finished higher in 14 consecutive days. Certainly a sideways pullback would be healthy at this point - but the dip buyers that got left behind are now playing catch up. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading over their 50-day MA is at 85% so we could actually go higher. I don't plan to move any position to safety until April and then it'll only be 5%. This could be another $100K week for me if this momentum persists.
 
JTH said:
Buy & Holders, you need to step aside, you're getting in my way again. I implore you to remove your sticky pants, I beg of you Buy & Holders to please exit now for your own good. This is not a safe market to be in, it could crash at any second, rememeber 1987?

It's time to take your gains off the table...
Click to expand...

I feel like a B&H - I've been where I am for 17 days !! :blink:
I'll move when you move - provided I see it and can get access !! ;)
However, I'm the one that keeps droppping rungs on the ladder - HOWever - I am really tickled at the % increase each day !!!!:D
 
The market seems to be weakening this morning with the small caps taking most of the pain. I'm still a light buyer for now: CXG, DDR, FAF, LZB. If we can show strength later I shall return because I have more money to burn.
 
The VIX just took out yesterday's intraday low at 16.54 - now at 16.42. That's a reason to burn money and buy more stocks as the market will smoke'em higher.
 
I went in and made a few more buys earlier: WGO, RT, DSX, STD. It does look like the NYSE is feeling pain currently and that's fine with me because I'm light the S fund.

"This would indicate that the SPX could push up to as high as the 1325 level before any larger top is in place with this component."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17976.html
 
Birchtree said:
I went in and made a few more buys earlier: WGO, RT, DSX, STD. It does look like the NYSE is feeling pain currently and that's fine with me because I'm light the S fund.

"This would indicate that the SPX could push up to as high as the 1325 level before any larger top is in place with this component."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17976.html
Click to expand...

IMHO, 1325 would be the head, but before that we need to build the 1229 left shoulder first.
 
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