Birchtree's Account Talk

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Birchtree said:
I'm waiting and watching the VIX soften. If we could get to 1150 on the SPX I think that would cause many bears to hang up their suits and join the herd - you know they have to be in pain.
Click to expand...

Where's the market headed? Up, course.. Why you ask? Because Americans are the greediest, most glutonous people on the planet. Take a chart of the Dow or S&P for say, the last 20 or 30 years, whatever, stand back and look at it.... Which way is it going? Forget the month to month moves and look at direction. Phoney pricing, market manipulation, it doesn't matter its going back up for awhile because americans can't stand the thought of not making easy money. The dirty cheatin' thieves of Wall Street just gave us a bath (2008) and they're setting us up to do it all over again. When? Who knows.... I can't believe there's anybody left on the lily pad after the last 12 months. Sorry for the rant.
 
It's a sacrifice in preparation for the nesting of the four year low due late summer - I hope to be 30% G fund by the end of July. Until then I'm a bull rider. My next 5% will come off my I fund position sometime in April - at least that's the strategy.
 
JamesE.

I don't know about you but I'm feeling the wealth effect and plan to keep buying until they turn out the lights. The higher the market goes up the more buying power I have access to spend. The more I spend the more gains I make. "Oh, I can't stop it." Anyway there James it's your money so feel free to save it at 0% or invest it. Snort.
 
JamesE,

Are you related to Bullitt? Calling me Boss reminds me of the guys that work at the local barbecue place - most are pierced and dyed - but they know an old soldier when they see one. They all call me Boss - that's funny. I got the name one evening when I asked where 'cry baby' was - he's the owners' son - they all broke out laughing so we had a connection.
 
James, there's nothing wrong with sitting in the G-fund be it 12 months or 12 years. The G-Fund is paying better rates then most if not all CDs. Also, some folks are already or getting ready to retire and shouldn't be taking on the risk brought on by stocks when they are counting on collecting a monthly paycheck.
 
JamesE:

If you started TSP in 2000 -> Compounded 10 years later:

G = 4.62F =6.39C =-0.94
S = 1.69I = 1.10


G not lookin to bad...but then again, no one is a true B&H.

Did I just say that in Birch's thread?:blink:
 
JTH,

I think a serious investor should be in the market until forever. When retired time is available to be diligent and profitable. Going to cash or bonds because of retirement is so 1950ish - take some geritol and ride the bull or even an afternoon nap on accasion is refreshing. And when you are retired that's when the pockets are deepest and all those years of disciplined dollar cost averaging now has one in a position to make serious money - because it takes real money to make real money. I need a $40K day tomorrow in both my accounts.
 
Frixxxx said:
JamesE:

If you started TSP in 2000 -> Compounded 10 years later:

G = 4.62F =6.39C =-0.94
S = 1.69I = 1.10


G not lookin to bad...but then again, no one is a true B&H.

Did I just say that in Birch's thread?:blink:
Click to expand...

Frixxxx,

The same stats don't look so bad if you take a 15 year mark or a 5 year mark. The 10 year thing is just a 10 year thing.

Plus, I think everybody here moves their asset base a bit.

Look, Birch just moved a whopping 5% out of the market:p
 
Birchtree said:
JamesE.

I don't know about you but I'm feeling the wealth effect and plan to keep buying until they turn out the lights. The higher the market goes up the more buying power I have access to spend. The more I spend the more gains I make. "Oh, I can't stop it." Anyway there James it's your money so feel free to save it at 0% or invest it. Snort.
Click to expand...


I'm definitely feeling it! I rarely go to G Birch, I have 15 yrs in and need to recoup my 08 losses....quick! I had to give some to the ex, so that hurt. But my PIP for 09 was still 34.xx% . 2008 should have taught us all a lesson, I for one will not let that happen again. I think everyone on this board is a "timer" to some degree. Why else even pay attention to a board like this? Almost all the folks I work with don't care about timing or even which fund they're in....unbelievable!
 
JTH said:
James, there's nothing wrong with sitting in the G-fund be it 12 months or 12 years. The G-Fund is paying better rates then most if not all CDs. Also, some folks are already or getting ready to retire and shouldn't be taking on the risk brought on by stocks when they are counting on collecting a monthly paycheck.
Click to expand...

I totally agree Jason, but I'm nowhere near ready for that.
 
Frixxxx said:
JamesE:

If you started TSP in 2000 -> Compounded 10 years later:

G = 4.62F =6.39C =-0.94
S = 1.69I = 1.10


G not lookin to bad...but then again, no one is a true B&H.

Did I just say that in Birch's thread?:blink:
Click to expand...

Agreed Frixxx, but by 2000, I was already spoiled by the gains in C-fund I made from 95-00! Who knows what I could be worth today if had luxury of this board back then.
 
"Hundreds of stocks are building, and breaking out of sideways areas of consolidation, known as bases, more than at any time since 1999, and possibly longer. The cumulative NYSE advance-decline and the number of 52 week highs, is leading the averages higher. A peak in the advance-decline line and number of 52 week highs, proxies for the average stock, normally precedes a bull market top in the DJIA by at least four to six months, making it one of the better long-term leading indicators."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/now-is-a-good-time-to-buy-stocks-2010-03-12
 
From the print edition of TWSJ 3/11. "Long term mutual funds had net buying, or inflows, for the 51st consecutive week amid continued strength for bond funds, while foreign stock funds saw money added to them as well, according to figures released by the Investment Company Institute.

Total estimated inflows were $12.75 billion in the week ended March 3, putting the total during the streak around $500 billion. The influx began as stock markets were approaching their bottom in early March 2009. But while some money has flowed into stock funds, the bulk has gone into bond funds." This is enough to make an equities bull salivate - close the doors and keep'em out awhile longer until it hurts.
 
Perhaps the next leg up will start on Monday - so I'll wait for it. There are no sellers at this point - only buyers like me.
 
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