Birchtree's Account Talk

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joylynn said:
Thank you so very much for the above link! :)

joylynn
Click to expand...

Isn't she precious Birch ! :D

Click on her name and you'll see a picture I found of her when we were in the 4th grade.

She was cute as a button back then .... ahh those were the days. ;)
 
joylynn,

We could be setting up for a technical analysis melt up phase - and it will be difficult to chase so the sooner you put coins into the fountain the sooner you'll get a return. Read my post in the bear cave to give you a fair balance - but I'm bullish all the way to the top and no one knows where the top lives.
 
Hey Birch,
I met this guy a few days back and we had a pretty long discussion talking about our time in Service.

He really comes across as like the ultimate soldier -- I mean it's very rare I ever meet someone who looks, talks, walks, communicates like this guy.

USMC - Vietnam Vet ...

So anyway I was telling him how I was and some of the stuff I did and how I did pretty well as a soldier. And it's one of the few times he did not have this stone cold serious expression -- but smiled and warmed up like -- I know exactly what you're saying.

'I was a soldier's soldier -- I made E7 in 6 years' Oh sheeeet -- I mean this guy was one hell of a soldier.

Anyway - stayed in the full 20

So it's rare I really meet someone like that -- but whenever I do it always makes me think of you !!!

Right on man -- have a great weekend -- 2 more to go
 
Looking back to the fall of 2008 and spring of 2009 were one of the great buying opportunities in years - rather like 1982. So for me in the long term staying invested was the right thing to do. Actually dumping $800K down the dark well was the right thing to do even with a $1M hair cut at the time. Because today at the end of week #52 off the March bottom I'm at $984K worth of upside valuation. All I need is $16K next week to meet my $1M goal and then we set the clock for the next round. Since 1932, the median length of a bull market has been 50 months, according to S&P.

"Who's Driving the Bus."

http://safehaven.com/article-16019.htm
 
While I'm at it I should say that I've noticed some of our members are close to hostile - taking on that Dell Shannon persona - "Running Scared" I suspect. A sure way to miss this bull market is to dismiss it as cyclical and unbelievable. When this thinking becomes a consensus it's time for me to load up again and start buying which I plan to do next week. My contrarian nature says the time is now before we get into a wave 3 scenario. Snort.
 
I'm with you on the bullish sentiment. I believe there is tons of dough out there looking for a place to find growth. Yes, lots of folks are disenchanted from market downturns in all sectors. Those with an eye to the future but no stomach for risk, will likely be swallowed by inflation.
 
Rube, good to read your thoughts.

"Last week's action marks a pivotal point in the stock market cycle. Both improving fundamentals and technicals have shifted the risk reward ratio towards the long side while IBD has officially called a resumption of an upward trend. It would be irresponsible of me to ignore the markets collective judgement." Peter finally woke up from hibernation.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17715.html
 
It would appear that with the substantial drop in the VIX this past week, the market is beginning to believe that it's smooth sailing ahead. I suspect we'll take out the intraday low of 17.23 and get into the 16 level - everyone will wait for the subsequent dip to buy back in but that may be awhile off into the future. There probably will be another spike higher on the VIX but not until the consensus has decided a reversal is limited - that's when the crowd gets crushed. And I'll be going against the crowd shifting some S fund to the lily pad - but only gently.
 
Just for fun and aggravation I thought I'd take a look back and see how many times I made $100K off the March bottom as well as how many times did I give back $100K. I'm talking about my oceanic account. The first gain was week #19 at $119K, second was week #31 at $137K, third was week #44 at $122K, fourth was week#52 at $128K. On the negative side was the first week #10 at $112K, second was week #34 at $160K - that's the story. Money seems to follow the tides flowing in and sometimes flowing out. I'm looking for week #53 to really hit the score board and put me well over $1M from the March 9th bottom. I plan to be a buyer of some of my favorite wall flowers Monday.
 
I too believe in the bull, the bears cant deny there is $$$ to be made...year's gains in the S have been quite good.

I flubbed when I got in that stupid I fund after Christmas season. Dumb @ss mistake, I did well in the S in Dec. and should have stuck there. If we have another positive Monday I should be outta the hole.
 
Just completed a few purchases on the highs: PVH. TRW, ACI, GCI. If we can rally up I'll be doing more buying because there are just so many lonely wall flowers needing comfort.
 
This post however has my positive attention.

"Clearly where the stock market is concerned the sovereign debt crisis talk is just background noise that continues to keep scared money away from investing, just as has been the case for the past 12 months where every correction breeds panic sell commentary. Which is great for a stock stealth bull market, the longer scared investors are kept in perpetual state of fear, the greater will be the bull run. How far could the stock market run? The stock market forecast for 2010 targets 12,500 this year, and continues to allude to a multi-year bull run."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17732.html
 
Birchtree said:
This post however has my positive attention.

"Clearly where the stock market is concerned the sovereign debt crisis talk is just background noise that continues to keep scared money away from investing, just as has been the case for the past 12 months where every correction breeds panic sell commentary. Which is great for a stock stealth bull market, the longer scared investors are kept in perpetual state of fear, the greater will be the bull run. How far could the stock market run? The stock market forecast for 2010 targets 12,500 this year, and continues to allude to a multi-year bull run."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17732.html
Click to expand...

Both good reads, and I concur, you don't have to agree with it. I say "good reads" to both because I think it is interesting to see what the other opinions are.

My take is that in every "crisis" there are camps of people who make drastic predictions (in either direction) because from an analyst standpoint its a huge payoff bet. If they end up right, they can tell everyone "see I told you so" then write a book about it and sell it to suckers. If they end up wrong, who cares -- they'll just explain it away, saying the situation changed, then modify it into a new prediction.
 
Birch, I like you better when you're a buyer on weakness. I hope you're keeping that margin clerk under wraps when you place your buy orders.
 
Bullitt,

A month from now today will constitute a period of weakness - I just wish I didn't have to tell the IRS what my yearly dividend income is - but they already know from 1099s. I plan to purchase many DCA positions in my oceanic as long as we rally - already building my lamb chop portfolio as a back door escape during the next correction that approaches 10% - trying to stay ahead of the margin folks and spend as much as I can. It won't be long and I'll start on my second $1M off the March bottom. Perhaps we'll get an anniversary surprise tomorrow that will knock my socks off. Snort.
 
Lostdawg,

I wanted to express my gratitude in your move to the G fund - now I may have an opportunity to move up my ranking.
 
Birch wish you all the best.

Almost went straight over to the C fund, but I didn't want to buy into a top which may be where we are at, don't know. That VIX spike chart I saw on here probably spooked me :). Comfortable spending the time reevaluating on the side for a few days. Let's see how the week rolls. I think I played out the I fund IMO and needed to jump. Maybe a dip will have me in quickly or I'll be chasing you, time will tell.
Keep up the good work and I do enjoy your bullish banter.

So wish I would have been doing TSP when it came out for us in my first life. Live and learn.
 
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