Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Get ready for some panic buying in the last hour as money slides off the sidelines - we could again easily close up 200 Dow points. The market subsurface is in very good shape, as evidenced by the performance of the advance/decline line. The A/D line is not diverting, and it's very rare the price will top without A/D divergence. Remember, Barton Biggs said we'd see 1200-1250 on the SPX before a significant correction. And it does take lots of courage to be a pig - oink!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"It's more than just profit taking. It's been a consistent investor response all year, and that's been stick as much money as you can into a bond fund. If history is any guide, they'll soon find they've made another investing mistake when bonds crater, as they will once the Fed begins hiking interest rates. So far this year, retail clients have poured a record $327.2 billion in new investments into bond funds."

http://www.dailyfinance.com/category/investing/
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Jeff Saut: 'Tis the Season for Superior Market Performance. As it stands right now, the current Dow rally would be classified as both short in duration and below average in magnitude. To us the real question isn't whether this is a counter-trend rally in an ongoing bear market, but rathr is this the beginning of a new secular bull market, or a bull market within the confines of the trading range we have been in for the last nine years. We've been using the stock market's chart pattern from 2003 as a template for this rally. Currently, corporate profits are surging at their largest ramp rate since mid-1975."

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/rally-/index/a/25455
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I need to buy a set of Mikimoto pearls for the wife. A Dow of 13,000 by the end of December would fit nicely.
Click to expand...

I'd much rather keep it around 10,000 for a few more years with a gradual incline and keep buying low. Then buy my pearls.
|>)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Weak numbers today are being ignored. One of the most valuable historical lessons is to completely ignore earnings and forecasts in the first six to 12 months of a new bull market. All it requires is a little dose of faith. In the great bull market of the 1990s, which began in October 1990, the market rose 249 percent over 1724 days before a 10% correction set in. I'd like to see the return of 1995. If you buy you are predicting the market will go up but you don't really know how high and for how long.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

New yearly highs (barely) but still valid on the S&P 500, DJTA and DJIA. Will the bearish chart slaves finally capitulate to the uptrend. As Stickan would say, from a fibonacci standpoint these highs could mean that we now will be trending up for a long time. Earlier bull markets hold lessons for those investors holding money on the sidelines today. Rallies usually peak amid buying frenzies so be prepared as the last buyers jump in for fear they're missing out and prices rise to levels not justified by earnings projections. The error a lot of individual investors make is that by focusing on lagging data they may be missing out on one of the biggest rallies of their lifetime. In the 2003-07 bull, it took almost five years before a 10% drop. Now that the SPX has broken out of the leading diagonal we should see some further acceleration. The low interest rate enviornment tells me we are at the beginning of a great bull market. Oink! Many cowardly money managers are now looking at career risk as the market continues to rise and pressure to perform continues to build geometrically. I hope they all end up lonely dates.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I really don't pay any attention to either one of them. It would be like reading Denninger which I also refuse to do.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, would you be audacious enough to call 1:30 EST the low for the next week or so? Lloyd & Co would love to pull a reversal here on the anti-americans :)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
With everything you've got going on I know you don't have time to think about this stuff...

...but let me dwell on the Buy and Hold Strategy for a moment

...for some it's a mindless act and therefore it's like 'ultra weakness'

BUT -- if you look at it as a 'deliberate action' then it's wholly based on confidence overweighing uncertainty...

...it's Courage overcomming Fear



The TOP 50 (100) are the Buy and Holders -- I bet you missed that

They started off at the Bottom Birch and stuck it out

Think of that the next time you're doing an IFT to G Fund. ;)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The secret to the buy and hold strategy is that one must at ALL times continue with a DCA approach with contributions - even when it means throwing good money after bad. That is when one accumulates the best prices. My DCA days will be coming to an end after the first quarter of 2010 - then I become a swing trader and utilize those shares to make serious money for retirement. You'll know it when you see it.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Sonders tells CNBC that historically, the stock market has actually performed best when consumer credit has been the weakest. And, she says that GDP, corporate profits, valuations, and the huge monetary and fiscal stimulus across the globe do indeed provide a number of fundamental reasons as to why stocks have been rising."

http://theguruinvestor.com/
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Richard Russell in light of the joint new highs of both the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports, is now officially bullish on both the secondary and primary trends of the stock market. Now isn't that nice. We're in a multi-year bull market and the wall of worry from a few months ago is still well in place. It's going to be a great market for at least two or three years for large-cap quality. That's why I'm overweighted in the C fund and will stay that way.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
The secret to the buy and hold strategy is that one must at ALL times continue with a DCA approach with contributions - even when it means throwing good money after bad. That is when one accumulates the best prices. My DCA days will be coming to an end after the first quarter of 2010 - then I become a swing trader and utilize those shares to make serious money for retirement. You'll know it when you see it.
Click to expand...

Exactly....retired....no more contributions....all I can do is "swing trade", I reckon....or sit on the lily pad and not have my account "outgrow" me??

Lobo :)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Like your positive optimism. Unfortunately, the market correction has already begun. Hard at first to see. Make no mistake about it though, we are two days in and counting. I see at least a 4 week slide from here and a minumum of 800 dow points. Just a haircut. I wouldn't say it unless I have taken a bit of time to review the dollar trading pattern, the US/Nikkei trade pattern since March of 09. The dollar will be moving up and the US will follow Nikkei market down. Just the fundamentals rebalancing.

Housing/Job Market will ensure that we have some negative things to focus on in the coming weeks. Not to mention the unraveling of the commerical real estate. Consumer spending is continuing to tighten and credit will continue to shrink. In a nutshell, it is what is is, markets which overshot the current fundamentals. :sick:
 
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