Birchtree's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch -- I bought and held on at the worse possible time

and the only way possible to recoup the losses is Holding On..

... so it's not that I'm reformed... it's way more I'm stuck


Happy Trading !!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bull markets do not like company and the higher we go the stiffer the pullbacks will be to make sure that not everyone is participating as we continue to move higher and higher. So we just had a 6% pullback - big deal. It is normal and expected for markets to test down to their 50 day exponential moving averages from time to time. Best to just hold.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Back to buying early and often: EQY, CLP, BDN, APU. I'll return later gator.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Still buying those lonely doves: bought back all my AEO, FFG, CSL, MTW, UFS, ACC. Watching the next Head and Shoulders pattern on the SPX - could be another head fake. If we hold these levels today I'm still a buyer.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well it looks like we barely pulled through 'by the skin of our teeth'.


But barely is better than not at all.


Well have a great night Birch -- and BTW isn't it kind of weird to always be right ??


What should friends tell other friends Birch ??

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Tell them the issue is to watch the character of claims ahead. If we break sustainably to new lows below 524,000 and continue south - we all have to be open to the historical message of this data. A big V recovery. Today the claims dropped by 20,000. We just experienced a 6% correction on the SPX - however, meaningful corrections in the early stages of a bull market are infrequent events that usually occur one or more years after the markets turn up. In eight of the 12 bull markets since 1949, the SPX did not suffer a 10% fall until the first year of the bull - wait for it in March 2010. Four bulls did not suffer an official correction - a drop of 10% or more - for more than two years. Yup, just wait for it.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The SPX notched a 2% gain today. The 10 day advance/decline line is now in oversold territory but won't stay there for long. The panic buyers are about ready to finally step up. The Transports 50 day is at 3836 - I'll have to check and see if we caught it today. Anyway anything north of 4045 is golden for a new yearly high.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The employment trend continues to improve - capex will lead us to the promise land. If we hold at higher market levels I'll be buying again. We need to hold SPX at 1070 for at least a week and then we run to 1200.

 

[fedgolfer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The employment trend continues to improve - capex will lead us to the promise land. If we hold at higher market levels I'll be buying again. We need to hold SPX at 1070 for at least a week and then we run to 1200.

yup... great GDP with a unemployment #'s that GUARANTEE fed rate inaction for a couple quarters at least. I count a minimum of four good bear traps layed out this week... one for each paw.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Recovery still in early phases. Very early in the stock market."

http://theguruinvestor.com

It looks like the VIX wants to take out to the lily pad - but I'm not going quietly.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX at 24.51 down 0.92 might be saying get ready for a possible pop later today - it just seems a little over done. Now it's down 1.11.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Sentiment is a contrary indicator - markets do well when people are pessimistic. A break of 1072 on strong volume would be bullish, possibly opening the door for a move back to the 1110 to 1150 range." Good graphs by the way.

http://safehaven.com/article-14946.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm thinking with the last three months of NFP jobs revised downward - why not the latest 190,000 jobless report to eventually also be revised downward. The VIX was telling me something today and that is the Dow 10,092.20 high will be taken out Monday. There are actually fewer bulls now than there were at that high - the stock market likes to rise with as few investors as possible on its' back. Someday, probably VIX below the 20 level, bullish sentiment will rise to dangerously high levels. And that's when contrarians will want to be pulling money off the table. Not that I want to see that happen but I know it is coming and I'm prepared to begin the preservation sacrifice. The oceanic took in $80K this week - more to come next week.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Actually, we have seen consecutive up-days in the post March bull phase, haven't we? Off of the July, September and October pull back lows notice the powerful verticle assault and the overwhelmingly high percentage of up-days."

http://safehaven.com/article-14958.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Buying early and often: PVH, GRA, TEN, GAP, KOP, LPX, SLE.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Up 250 points on the close would be so sweet for the bears - makes them all want to go short. Then tomorrow the hammer comes down. We are already at a new yearly high on the Dow and the Transports will follow in a couple of days - then Richard Russell will admit that we are probably in a bull market.

 

[jdphx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

For some reason, having trouble reading between the
Tea leaves on this one Birch. Sounds like you think UP
again tomorrow... I was thinking about "locking" in some
gains...

about 20 minutes to decide!!!! :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Remember that November is one of the best months of the year - and with all the available cash on the sidelines we could see a moonshot. Why miss the action - fear is always good. Currently the bullish consensus is around only 22% - this is perfect from a contrarian standpoint. We could rally all week and hit Dow 11,000. When the Dow first closed above 10,000 in 1999, it only took another 24 trading days for it to close above 11,000. And everything seems to happen quicker these days, so be prepared.

 

[jdphx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Step away from the keyboard..... Deep breath....

Thank you Birch.

5 years to go... earned back nearly all of my wipeout
of the last crash... Be patient. I'll start getting worried
again next year. Maybe March I'm thinking!!


JD

 

[fedgolfer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Remember that November is one of the best months of the year - and with all the available cash on the sidelines we could see a moonshot. Why miss the action - fear is always good.

November = July 2009 the sequel. Emotionally and from T&A pt of view, it is a repeat performance.