Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Good moon shot there tom1tom1 - excellent prescient timing. That shows real class. But we shall meet again I'm sure. Heck, you are even in the correct allocation at 100% C fund. But how long will you stay there before you become hesitant - we could be heading to SPX below 980. Are you strong enough to absorb and share some financial pain.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks for noticing BT. I was proud of the move but must admit I'm just plain lucky. I have to give u most of the credit though because I can't handle you passing me up. And you're so right in speculating whether I'll be able to hang tight. Thanks for pestering me.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"With several key data releases due next week: ISM manufacturing, ISM non-manufacturing and non-farm payroll, the stage is set, if all goes well, for the Bulls to regain control. If next weeks data is at least in line with, or better than consensus, especially non-farm payrolls at the end of the week, we judge stocks should begin to solidly test the highs. Why wouldn't they? After a good corporate profit reporting season, strong Q3 GDP, additional good news would serve to cement the message in trader's minds, the U.S. economy is on the mend and with the Fed set to leave policy on hold until Q2 2010, trader's will have good reason to buy stocks."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14644.html

Copper is bullish - we need to take that into account during any pullback. If the leaders continue to lead, and the laggards continue to follow, then it is possible that the S&P 500 will also see a bullish break eventually from its rising wedge. The current move down is just another head fake like what happened last July when everyone and his sister were sure the H&S pattern ment a down move. Didn't happen that way.

"But regardless of the interim fundamentals, copper's long term fundamentals are strong and its secular bull is still intact."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14654.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think I'll have to admit that last week was a most wicked week. But I don't think we'll see much follow through - if we do I'll remain on the scamper. I'm now further away from my $1M goal sitting at $639K on week 34 from the March bottom. Now don't cry for me Argentina but last week I was devalued to the tune of $160K and if you combine the two week period of pullback I'm light $212K. I continue to believe in the bull market crusade so I know eventually this money will return on the wings of faith, hope and charity. I knew very well that by getting in as deep as I am that my pain levels would potentially be elevated when the hits roll in my direction. The most I've been light since the 3/9 bottom was $112K in a week at week #10 and it took another three weeks to regain my values. I know you all must find this interesting, right? During weeks #29 and #30 I went light $135K and got it all back during week #31. So the money always comes back. Will I have to give back more next week, maybe but no matter. I think we are experiencing another head fake to the downside. Anyway I did lighten my load last week for several reason. One reason is I'm now a margin player and was trying to stay away from the house call machine. I took out $193K in sales and returned a profit of $57,017 that I will now have to pay taxes on - but I need the profit to offset my margin deduction along with my dividend income. If this market does not further capitulate to the downside I will start buying all my previous positions back and perhaps increasing them. The list is prepared to go incase I'm required to scamper again. I did have 12 dividends hit the account yesterday so there was at least one small blessing - dividend reinvestments are so nice when prices are golden. I'm ready to start buying the first opportunity I get. This bull market has a long way to run yet. A 6% pullback is going to be common place going forward.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

I think the pullback will end next week. Just a guess. But, why the big downturn, why the big upswing. It is a traders game right now - not an investors time. We investors can wait this out.:)

The sellers probably wanted to guarantee capital gains profits before the potential tax increase. Who knows if this gang of nincompoops will make the tax code changes retroactive. See Kaliforeea. So, a few days of sellers wanting to capitalize on 20% - 30% gains; then invest in other sectors or wait the 30 days to reinvest in the stuff they just sold. To me, that is what this feels like. Late November should be a fun time for investors.:)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

It will probably take me at least three weeks to make my devaluations back but I plan to buy myself all the way to the top. Well maybe only two weeks if the bull slaps the short hairs off the bears. This is now the opportunity all the timids have been waiting for to buy their positions. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the NFP numbers come in south of 100,000 down. As far as taxes go - most of the people who voted for Obama don't pay taxes. With the earned income tax credit they get paid for not working.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

We just experienced one of the strongest rallies ever in a short time span - frankly panic attacks like last week are part of any recovery process. It is normal and expected for markets to test down to those 50 day exponential moving averages from time to time. That allows for the oscillators to unwind and for any negative divergences that formed to be wiped out.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

From the print edition of the WSJ on 10/30.

"Historically, business investment has rarely led U.S. expansions, in part because it makes up only about a tenth of the economy, compared with more than two-thirds from consumer spending. It made the primary contribution to GDP growth in only two of the past six recoveries. The first of those, in 1980 and 1981, lasted only one year. Exports, which make up about 11% of the economy, haven't made the biggest contribution to any U.S. recovery in at least 40 years.

Some, though, still believe this time can be different, in part because China and other developing countries have kept growing at a strong pace. There is considerable scope for export growth. A lot of people are banking on the U.S. recovery not being driven so much by consumers but by exports."
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ah, the market likes the ISM numbers and the internals look good. The government sold a record $123 billion in notes last week in four auctions. Each was heavily oversubscribed, drawing in a total of $372.4 billion in bids, more than three times the offered amount. This is comforting news for those worried that the U.S. biggest lenders, especially the Chinese central bank, could start paring back on purchases for fear that record U.S. fiscal deficits and excessively easy monetary policy could undermine confidence in the dollar.

If the dollar does move back to the 80 level, history has shown this to be very bullish for the U.S. markets. Any further price erosion is still within the context of a price correction and not the start of anything trending to the downside.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

That was a good read McDuk. The Savage truth is that all those crying Obama constituent democrats are responsible for this crisis and now they are paying the price. After all they are responsible for all the pain generated. Me, I'm doing just fine and will survive this madness in fine shape. Let them eat cake.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm really concerned about 2012 and that is a year out. IMO, 2011 could be a good year followed by a severe downturn by years end leading into 2012 then choas; hopefully not. This market has not recovered even though we will have days that money can be made. I just think 2012 will be really bad. Of course I could be proven wrong it is my opinion only and no statistical data; of course no one can predict the future.:confused:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

ezmoney said:
I'm really concerned about 2012 and that is a year out. IMO, 2011 could be a good year followed by a severe downturn by years end leading into 2012 then choas; hopefully not. This market has not recovered even though we will have days that money can be made. I just think 2012 will be really bad. Of course I could be proven wrong it is my opinion only and no statistical data; of course no one can predict the future.:confused:
Click to expand...

Do you have cosmicphobia? :D 2012 oooooooohhhhh
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Looks like the bullls got tired today.

Was hoping for at least a great opening for November!

Hope you didn't lose too much on CIT:cool:

But the loss may make a good tax write-off?

Sincerely,

Frixxxx

I'm still hitched up for another 40% run!
 
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