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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Norm -- I appreciate you genuine response....
and please don't take this in a condenscending manner -----
as The Universe --- taking to a mere Hall of Famer
But I've noticed the Press always has something to PRINT
ALWAYS -- has something to PIN to this or that -- without exception
and I take it with a grain of salt.
OK - everyone -- as you all can see --- some days I just need to get out and stir the coals -- fan the flames -- and cause a little ruckus...
Good Night All
grandma
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 38
Re: Birchtree's account talk
:embarrest:..and since you've already said `good-night' once this eve - you might want to stay in bed & get some rest..........
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Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
:embarrest:..and since you've already said `good-night' once this eve - you might want to stay in bed & get some rest..........
:cheesy:
Frixxxx
Moderator
- Reaction score
- 130
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
It really bothers me that my 'FEAR DETECTOR' goes off in association with you
I'm hope it's just a battery that needs changing.....
Anyway --- please remember that the Markets have substantially gained since 3/09 and in fact have risen at like 'record levels'...
that means we need some strong 'consolidation' -- and once that processs has been achieved -- I expect the Markets to take off even stronger and way faster....
This is not the time to run and hide Birch... :worried: and I'm going to change the battery before I say anything else
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Now is not the time to cut and run - we are after all approaching one of the strongest months in November. The sell off yesterday was emotional nonsense keeping the weak hands on edge - just what the bull wants. Despite recent warnings that the rally may be over, stock markets face a meltup as institutional investors will now feel obligated to buy to deliver returns. Their anxiety levels are going up because their careers are on the line - they will feel forced to buy so they won't miss profit opportunities. Laszlo still thinks 1280 may be doable before year end - sure don't want to miss those gains. But the VIX may force me to do a minor amount of shifting as everyone becomes comfortable - that's simply what contrarians do to survive.
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 764
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Hey you can't blame me, besides I'm in the bottom of the tracker, nobody follows me anyways...
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The VIX now at 21.74 merely suggests that there are too many people on the bullish side, which is a contrary indicator. Delayed reactions are often the investor's worst enemy. But Mr. Custer I don't want to go. With the market hit yesterday as an example if we opened down another 100 points the trap would have been set. Not much of an opportunity to get out - so handle the hits with courage. Markets do not peak on maximum overbought values, nor do they peak on maximum price momentum. IMHO a significant medium term top is still a few more months down the road. The current bull run will be 12 months old at the end of March 2010 - historically, corrections better than 10% don't happen until after a year has passed in a new bull market. Missing a rally of this magnitude is a serious error of omission.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Have my feet up watching the VIX drop toward the 20 level. Not anxious about it yet. I plan to do my buying tomorrow before this bull run gets away from me. There is no better late than never in investing. Such a nice day to perk up the hedge funds. Tomorrow could be a parabolic blowout and I don't mind buying on the highs.
Boghie
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 145
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I actually was waiting for that - yuk, yuk
We've both been 100% invested for the last month. Your asset allocation, however, has been better than mine. You're like a bear (really a bull!) chasing a herd of humans - I'm just a bit slower than the I of Sauron Funders.
But, if you hadn't noticed, I made an adjustment to my allocation. My equity allocation split is now the same as yours. I kinda liked it and the reasoning behind it. I will be moving at 70% of your speed. And, I still have an October IFT.
Better be looking a little further up the line for the true Lilly Padders :laugh:
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'm looking for more meltups like today and expect the Dow will be at 10,500 by the close of October 30th. November and December could be very rewarding. But we all know that trouble is coming - it's just a matter of time.
poolman
Top Return 2008
- Reaction score
- 70
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Hey Birchtree,
Can you believe this. 10500 DJIA by October 30.
I agree with you.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
In the 2003-07 bull, it took almost five years before a 10% drop. In the great bull market of the 1990s, which began in October 1990, the market rose 249 percent over 1724 days before a 10% correction set in. One of the most valuable historical lessons is to completely ignore earnings and forecasts in the first six to 12 months of a new bull market. With many money management firms approaching their October year-end, the performance pressure, subsequent bonus pressure, and ultimately career risks, continue to increase geometrically as the equity markets rally. All these comments come from some of my previous posts.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
http://www.dionmm.com/blog/2009/10/22/five-reasons-not-to-time-the-market/
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"The upside target is 11,600 for the DJIA, according to Guppy."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33445563
anthony
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 10
Re: Birchtree's account talk
A good reminder Birchtree. I just got two more guys on my team to start investing for the first time in their lives, both in their early 30s. My guidance was the same, and to use a DCA approach.
I don't know what your feelings are about them, but for guys I know who know nothing about investing and show no desire to learn anything or do any research, I encouraged them to use targeted retirement funds, and to just plow money in and forget it until time to retire.
Interested in your thoughts, and thoughts of others on target retirement funds like our Lifecycle Funds.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
That's what the Lifecycle funds are for - not everyone has the initiative or is perspicacious when it comes to investing. There is nothing easy about making money or holding capital preservation. As long as I give back less than Tom1Tom1 today I'm kosher. It's time to start looking for higher volumes during favorable price actions - I'm a greedy oinker.Similar threads
