Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well because of this week I'm now a little further back toward my goal of $1M off the March 9th bottom - currently at $799K for week #33. Gave back $53K this week which is not as bad as week #29 ($73K) and week #30 ($62K) and I got all that back during week #31 ($137K) - so I'm basically trending sideways until I see what happens next week. The last week of October - will it want to destroy me or get me over the $900K mark. So it looks like I may not get the $1M until sometime in November. It's all in the game but I'll for sure get there. Once I complete my next buy list these numbers will be larger going both ways - $100K weeks will become common place the deeper in I get - remember it takes money to make money and I'm due for some explosive success because I'm perspicacious. Many investors remain traumatized by the losses they sustained during the financial crisis. This is a similar phenomenon seen in the 2002-03 market when investors were reeling from the bursting of the internet bubble of stocks. I'm doing the same thing now as I did back then - buy the heck out of the bottom and keep on buying all the way to the top which is probably ten years down the yellow brick path. Even on a bad week I still got that smell of superlative bull manure that wafts over me because I believe we are in a mega trend secular bull market. Oink.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Should the breakouts in copper and emerging markets fail to hold, it would be wise for the bulls to pay attention. However, the longer these markets remain in a breakout state, the more bullish these events become. Since we are in a confirmed bull market, the odds favor bullish outcomes until proven otherwise. Copper is bullish - we need to take that into account during any correction. If the leader continue to lead, and the laggards continue to follow, then it is possible that the S&P 500 will also see a bullish break from its rising wedge."

http://safehaven.com/article-14799.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

One more nice article for the night owls.

"On the bright side, if you are psychologically prepared for these inevitable pullbacks they create the best buying opportunities ever seen within uplegs. The S&P 500 index has soared 62.3% from its despair-laden March low. All bull markets face periodic pullbacks and corrections. They are healthy and necessary, rebalancing sentiment away from greed and complacency to ensure an upleg doesn't burn itself out prematurely. The difference between a pullback and correction is simply one of degree. Classical market analysis usually places the line of demarcation at 10%. Anything less is a pullback, anything more is a correction."

http://safehaven.com/article-14801.htm

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

perspicacious ....and there I was, thinking I was helping with "kraut" over "crout".

copper is bullish....is saving pre 1981 pennies bullish or bearish?:laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Anyway those looking for the bull market to end - Brian Wesbury says the bull market rally will probably extend well into 2011 as the economy starts to expand. I'm hoping for a GDP of at least 3% come Thursday.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Keep in mind that the role of a bull market is to keep you out all the way up until the top.

"According to one sentiment poll mentioned on CNBC recently, nearly 98 percent of all respondents were bearish on the U.S. dollar. Assuming this figure is anywhere near accurate, this has to be an all-time record for bearish sentiment on the greenback. The most salient implication of this year's stock market recovery is the potential for economic recovery intermediate-term. Lest we forget the old bromide: the stock market leads economic performance by 6-9 months on average. I don't expect this time to be the exception to this rule."

http://safehaven.com/article-14815.htm

So far on the C fund I've caught some nice $12 prices: $12.11, $12.28, $12.31, $12.64, and $12.74. My DCA days won't last that much longer and I'm on to swing trading.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From the print edition of TWSJ on 10/22/09.

"Stocks first, then jobs is an old pattern. That's why stock prices are one of the 10 components of the index of leading indicators. But in the old days, the job market came back faster. After the month in which official arbiters later determined that the 1975 and 1982 recessions ended and the economy resumed its growth, the unemployment rate rose for only two more months.

Despite scattered forecasts of V-shaped recovery in which the economy revives vigorously, there's reason to expect distressingly sluggish growth ahead. Recoveries from recessions triggered by financial disturbances tend to be painfully slow. The jobless rate rose for 15 months after the end of the 1990-91 recession when battered banks were reluctant to lend. And it rose for 19 months after the end of the 2001 recession, the one preceded by a bursting tech-stock bubble.

The latest earnings reports from big banks show these financial headwinds at work. Banks are making money - but not by lending to consumers and businesses too small to go to the bond market. They're making money largely by trading and enjoying a run-up in their mark-to-market portfolios."

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My sagacious investment adviser, Mindylou, recently told me that until this lateral market makes the move over key resistance or SPX 1101 on a closing basis or below key support or SPX 1074 on a closing basis, you can expect we will have much of the same lateral boredom. I'm thinking the SPX will see a bullish break from its rising wedge sometime this week and the DJIA will rip to 10,500.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I decided to back up today and take a few profits in the oceanic account and it only cost me $28 in commissions. I sold some TEN, GDI, WGO, LZ for $50,532 of which perhaps $20K will result in taxable profits. I do plan to buy all these shares back in 30 days if possible.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Major Resistance at the Gap."

http://safehaven.com/article-14831.htm

 

[Nordic]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Would punching through the 50-Day EMA be reason enough to dock the tugboat, or are you still waiting for VIX 20?

 

[tom1tom1]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm soon to bail but lost less then Birch today so am hanging on

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey, I'm going to wait on the 20 VIX level because I think the NFP numbers coming out on November 6th are going to be much better and that will send sideline money pouring into the market initiating a buying panic - sure don't want to miss that. In the meantime I'll receive a few body blows and stay long and strong. I'm reminded that the advance/decline line of the NYSE just made a new high a few days ago - that doesn't happen at cycle tops. Instead one can look for a four-six month divergence from the major indexes - not happening yet. This rally has much more room to run before I begin to gently shift my tugboat to the lily pad - it may take six months to achieve a 50% safe harbor. The new bull will be 12 months old at the end of March 2010 - I'm good until then. Bull market cycles don't end on bad news - only good news. After March we may see the 10% correction.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

tom1tom1,

You don't have to rub it in. If your feet are getting cold and you jump that's when I'll make the move to get by. But I do think we are set up for a two month explosive move to the up side right on up to SPX 1300 - that ole principle of symmetry will work fine. Snort.

 

[tom1tom1]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My feet aren't that cold but starting to see a pattern that I don't like. I'll step aside if you think you can be tough enough to catch me

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

tom1tom1,

If you step aside you will be mine - no doubt about it. But I don't recommend anyone get out of the way of this bull market run - there is just overwhelming opportunity to make money this early in a new bull market that could actually be a continuation of the 1982 mega trend secular bull market. I'll catch you on allocation alone because the fast and the furious are about to slow for the tried and true. But thanx, I am having fun on the chase. I can't believe my buddy amoeba just ran over coolhand - I hope that doesn't hold for long.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well Birch -- I see ya bailed to G FUND

I still luv ya Birch -- even if the Pressures got too High

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well Birch -- I see ya bailed to G FUND

I still luv ya Birch -- even if the Pressures got too High

What makes you say that SteadyG? Birch sounds as bullish as ever and don't see ant IFT's in the autotracker for him? His last two posts say...

...I do think we are set up for a two month explosive move to the up side right on up to SPX 1300

...I don't recommend anyone get out of the way of this bull market run - there is just overwhelming opportunity to make money this early in a new bull market that could actually be a continuation of the 1982 mega trend secular bull market.

Don't scare me. There are only a few things we can count on in life - the sun will rise each morning in the east, and Birchtree will be bullish.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

There are many times when you are lucid and perspicuous and then there are those times when you are facetious and endearing. Friends I'm still at 65C/20S/15I with no plans to change in the immediate future unless the VIX takes a swan dive to below the 20 level. Then I don'y really anticipate moving more than 5% at a time because the market will be rocking and I abhor leaving much on the table. I remember leaving $120K on the table a few years back when I liquidated my AKS position too early. But I've been buying it back this past year to gain some redemption from that mistake.

 

[grandma]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What makes you say that SteadyG? Birch sounds as bullish as ever and don't see an IFT's in the autotracker for him? His last two posts say...
Don't scare me. There are only a few things we can count on in life - the sun will rise each morning in the east, and Birchtree will be bullish.

Thanx, Tom, for the note - I was afraid my computer had a NEW glitch !!:laugh: