Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Perhaps an even more important indication of the internal strength of the market from a longer term standpoint is this week's drop in our Selling Pressure Index to a new 12 month low. This persistent contraction in selling indicates that, despite occasional corrections, investors have become increasingly convinced that prices are headed higher in the months ahead."

http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

Always keep in mind that during bull markets another top is always just around the corner. If we make new highs on the ratio adjusted NYAD during this current sequence the sky is the limit. Someone said today that this rally is like the 2003 rally only on steroids. From a long term investor prospective this could be the greatest bull market of all time because it could go on until all our reasons for not loving it are forgotten. Are we having a monster rally or what?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

My 1.5 cents...As long as the US currency mopes along we are in good shape. If prices relevant to investors increase then that can only help us make money, right? For the intermediate, I hope that the dollar remains as it is or gains in strength...But what happens if/when the world bank starts printing its own? Now, though?...I'm all in and happy to be there for the ride (the past few months have been very good to a lot of us haven't they?)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mary Ann Bartels, an analyst at Bank of America Corp. says, "using earlier rallies as a guide suggests the seasonal weakness that stocks often suffer in September and October will occur in November, December and January instead. She thinks a correction after the current recovery would lay the groundwork for further gains next year. She sees the S&P 500 climbing as high as 1325 a gain of 22% from the benchmark's close of 1087.68 last week."
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Looking at the other fifteen instances in which the VIX fell at least seven days in a row, a pattern emerges in which following the VIX streak, the S&P 500 index has a tendency to post a slight loss for a week or so, then significantly outperform the historical averages for the balance of the periods studied, from 10 to 100 trading days."

http://www.vixandmore.bolgspot.com/
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"One of the notable features of extreme overbought is that investors rarely have much opportunity to get out, just like the fast and furious advances that clear oversold conditions tend to occur too quickly to capture unless one has already established a position. As for the present, we have rarely seen 90% of stocks suspended above their 50 and 200-day moving averages for as sustained a period as we have now observed."

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc091019.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Oh damn the VIX is at 20.14 down 0.76 - this just really....well what does it matter. My strategy is set but I do have flexibility so I'll take my time. I knew it would probably come to this and the best time to shift is when it's the most difficult. But my original plan was to move in December when there were only a few bears still roaming the street. Getting ready to tip SPX 1100 - so I'm sending out a great big booty shake. SPX 1117 takes out the fibonacci 50% retracement of the 2007-2009 decline. I guess today will be a buying day - keep on accumulating is my creed.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

^^ Thanks for posting this. You'd mentioned VIX at 20 as a key level for a move to G and I've been wondering if you were going to hold to your view on this or not.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch -- despite the Doom's Day forecasts by the masses...

Would you say -- the Trend (or Cycle) since 3/09 is 'verified' ?

Despite the evidence before us -- in retrospect :cheesy:

do you see this Trend abruptly ending and reversing ???

or do you see the Trend as essentially unstoppable ???
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

There are too many folks who continue to disbelieve the current run as nothing but a liquidity driven market rather than being fundamentally based - the economic statistics will eventually catch up. There may not be a significant give back until more bears capitulate to the uptrend - then the hit will come. But it will only be a temporary phenomenon because we are in the early stages of a multi-year global recovery and susequent bull market. Yes, a mega trend secular bull market and I plan to buy myself into happiness all the way up - not obsessing about any tops for years. Snort. Keep an eagle eye on the MACD. When the MACD starts drifting down from current high levels to levels only half or less of the recent peak readings that may be a sign. At any rate I think the bull is safe until at least March 2010 when the current bull run will be 12 months old - then we are at risk for the blindside. I just always turn the other cheek and absorb the body blows. I do plan to start shifting gently out of the tugboat into the lily pad over the next six months now that the VIX has essentially achieved my 20 level - but only slowly. I'm still greedy for more shares.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
There are too many folks who continue to disbelieve the current run as nothing but a liquidity driven market rather than being fundamentally based - the economic statistics will eventually catch up. There may not be a significant give back until more bears capitulate to the uptrend - then the hit will come. But it will only be a temporary phenomenon because we are in the early stages of a multi-year global recovery and susequent bull market. Yes, a mega trend secular bull market and I plan to buy myself into happiness all the way up - not obsessing about any tops for years. Snort. Keep an eagle eye on the MACD. When the MACD starts drifting down from current high levels to levels only half or less of the recent peak readings that may be a sign. At any rate I think the bull is safe until at least March 2010 when the current bull run will be 12 months old - then we are at risk for the blindside. I just always turn the other cheek and absorb the body blows.
Click to expand...

Birch,

I don't doubt what you wrote here. But, what tells you that we are going to melt up? What is it that you are looking at that gives you this thought? :)

Thanks,

Steve
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steve,

Simply the history of previous bull markets - eventually the left behinds will capitulate and all you'll hear is get me in at any price. The anxiety levels are rising of the left behinds and this pain will create a panic buying atmosphere. Pain is a great motivator. The next five months could be glorious for the long and strong - be in to win.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Steve,

Simply the history of previous bull markets - eventually the left behinds will capitulate and all you'll hear is get me in at any price. The anxiety levels are rising of the left behinds and this pain will create a panic buying atmosphere. Pain is a great motivator. The next five months could be glorious for the long and strong - be in to win.
Click to expand...

Thanks for your response Birch.

Steve
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
There are too many folks who continue to disbelieve the current run as nothing but a liquidity driven market rather than being fundamentally based -

That is an EXCELLENT RESPONSE !!

the economic statistics will eventually catch up.

Amen !! Brother

There may not be a significant give back until more bears capitulate to the uptrend - then the hit will come.

No big deal and it doesn't phase me.

But it will only be a temporary phenomenon because we are in the early stages of a multi-year global recovery and susequent bull market.

So ignore the BS then Birch -- cause that's all the rest of it is.

Yes, a mega trend secular bull market and I plan to buy myself into happiness all the way up - not obsessing about any tops for years. Snort.
Click to expand...

THANK YOU !! That's better than any link you could find from anyone else.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I thought about doing some buying today but instead elected to make a sacrifice and pay off a credit card with the money. Tomorrow should give me another opportunity to select a few wall flowers.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sorry of you mentioned this recently, but didn't you say at one point that you would consider being a seller once the VIX hits 20 (or goes below)?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Nice little whip in your favor....do some purchasing tomorrow....price will be cheap!

What caused this sell-off?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

... buy it up... sounds like an analyst talking the markets down to get the gap fill on the spx since he missed it the first time! :)
 
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