Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

When you are in a short position you are playing with someone elses shares that must eventually be repaid - the only way you can repay those shares is to buy them back. The longer the market rallies the higher those costs go and the potential loss becomes limitless because there may not be a top for a long time. Waiting for a significant correction could result in great harm to yor financial health.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
The Fed is not going to shut the markets down with increasing rates - too many 401K plans at stake.
Click to expand...

BT
you mentioned 401k plans and I just read a good article in Time Magazine October issue that dealt with 401K plans from inception to now and even the future. it was informative and at the same time depressing. it talked about the 401k not initially meant to be for retirement and how alot of people will fall short when it comes time to retire. very sad :( scenario for those under FERS. i think its worth reading.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

GUCHI said:
BT
you mentioned 401k plans and I just read a good article in Time Magazine October issue that dealt with 401K plans from inception to now and even the future. it was informative and at the same time depressing. it talked about the 401k not initially meant to be for retirement and how alot of people will fall short when it comes time to retire. very sad :( scenario for those under FERS. i think its worth reading.
Click to expand...
Sorry Guchi,

Too many things left out of this story. I felt that most of the people interviewed were on the "set it and forget it" plan. There were many other aspects of financial planning NOT brought into the picture.

The bottom line when investing-Diversify.

Too many people choose one tool and rely on it too much. You are right to bring it up, but I think it was a little short-sighted.

:cool:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

i think NNUUT needs a new pair of sticky pants , his other pair were sold on EBAY :worried:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

As a point of 401K interest I got a call this morning from a correctional officer sergeant asking when I was going to send her a bill for watching her account. I told her not until she was back to her previous high level. She has ridden the thunder staying with a dollar cost averaging approach through the cycle. Everytime I talked to her I told her this market was poised to rebound as hard as it went down and to use this opportunity to accunulate more shares - now that her money was working even harder. To make a long story short she is now only $67K from her all time peak. And the Dow is still down 4,000 points from its' peak. She may end up even before the end of the year. She has 11,000 shares in the Pioneer fund (tracks SPX) and 5,000 shares in the Foreign Stock Active fund and we plan to make no changes. Her gains now will come quickly. By the way her peak was $326K and she wants to work at least another five years - she could easily achieve $1M before she retires. I always say that disciplined dollar cost averaging is the redeemer of all accounts. This is just one example of many. Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I always say that disciplined dollar cost averaging is the redeemer of all accounts. This is just one example of many. Snort.
Click to expand...
All I keep thinking about lately....DCA~~DCA~~DCA.

I think this ride up has been my instructional path for investing.

I like the "high-water" mark cost you charge....I use that in other endeavours as well.:cool:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thankyou tataberto - your move gives me ten days to go beep, beep. Now vectorman and pezfallout come to papa. I'm trying to slowly work my way up the tracker - but it will be a feat that will require planning to get past the buy and hold I funders. But it's not impossible.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I always say that disciplined dollar cost averaging is the redeemer of all accounts. This is just one example of many. Snort.
Click to expand...

ditto on that sentiment. I've been talking to a lot of folks on my team since we've been out here. I am in no position to offer professional advice to them, so I stick to my guns on three key pieces of "mentorship":

1) start young, but it's also never to late to start, no matter how small the amount.

2) the less you know about the market (and that's most of us) the more you need to just DCA in small amounts monthly over a long period of time, and avoid the idea of market timing.

2) if you are new, stick to the index funds. 80% of mutual funds can't beat the 5-10 year S&P 500 average and their expenses cut into earnings.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Excellent advise - investing doesn't have to be complicated unless you want to make it that way. Time in the market is often more rewarding than timing the market. I assume you know that while deployed your TSP cap is around $45K.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I had 7 dividends roll into my oceanic yesterday for reinvestment - hope I'm as fortunate today at perhaps lower pricing. This market can turn on a dime and cause panic for the bears and fear for those on the sidelines - seems very quiet before the storm.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Frixxxx said:
Sorry Guchi,

Too many things left out of this story. I felt that most of the people interviewed were on the "set it and forget it" plan. There were many other aspects of financial planning NOT brought into the picture.

The bottom line when investing-Diversify.

Too many people choose one tool and rely on it too much. You are right to bring it up, but I think it was a little short-sighted.

:cool:
Click to expand...

Frixx
I don't know what agency you work for, but my agency tells us hear you go heres your TSP and basicly says good luck. most of us including me don't know which way is up when it comes to investing in TSP. When i first started they automaticly put you in the G fund. I stayed there until I started looking at the numbers alittle closer and saw that the G was not the place to be. I later found TSPTALK and learned alot more. my point is "if you don't know the right questions to ask your just stuck" I have a coworker who was hired 3 years ago and I have been telling him since day one to get out of the G you have 27 yrs to make money, and he finally just did about 4 moths ago. Alot of the newbies are like deer caught in headlights concerning TSP. I can say I wish I had someone advising me about my TSP when I started. I'm trying to make up for lost time now. I appreciate your comments Frixxx, but thats my story and I'm sticking with it.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

GUCHI said:
Frixx
I don't know what agency you work for, but my agency tells us hear you go heres your TSP and basicly says good luck. most of us including me don't know which way is up when it comes to investing in TSP. When i first started they automaticly put you in the G fund. I stayed there until I started looking at the numbers alittle closer and saw that the G was not the place to be. I later found TSPTALK and learned alot more. my point is "if you don't know the right questions to ask your just stuck" I have a coworker who was hired 3 years ago and I have been telling him since day one to get out of the G you have 27 yrs to make money, and he finally just did about 4 moths ago. Alot of the newbies are like deer caught in headlights concerning TSP. I can say I wish I had someone advising me about my TSP when I started. I'm trying to make up for lost time now. I appreciate your comments Frixxx, but thats my story and I'm sticking with it.
Click to expand...

Well said GUCHI.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Excellent advise - investing doesn't have to be complicated unless you want to make it that way. Time in the market is often more rewarding than timing the market. I assume you know that while deployed your TSP cap is around $45K.
Click to expand...

I often think the $45K is designed to help military members invest a larger portion of their bonuses, if they get one.

Being Marine, we're pretty tight on bonuses because we don't have the same retention problems, especially in the officer ranks. Without a bonus, try as I might, $45K is a tough bridge to get across. Part of that is because I max out Roth's for my wife and I before TSP, and the most I'm able to scrape into TSP is around $20K. But $20K is still a pretty good amount in my book.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
As a point of 401K interest I got a call this morning from a correctional officer sergeant asking when I was going to send her a bill for watching her account. I told her not until she was back to her previous high level. She has ridden the thunder staying with a dollar cost averaging approach through the cycle. Everytime I talked to her I told her this market was poised to rebound as hard as it went down and to use this opportunity to accunulate more shares - now that her money was working even harder. To make a long story short she is now only $67K from her all time peak. And the Dow is still down 4,000 points from its' peak. She may end up even before the end of the year. She has 11,000 shares in the Pioneer fund (tracks SPX) and 5,000 shares in the Foreign Stock Active fund and we plan to make no changes. Her gains now will come quickly. By the way her peak was $326K and she wants to work at least another five years - she could easily achieve $1M before she retires. I always say that disciplined dollar cost averaging is the redeemer of all accounts. This is just one example of many. Snort.
Click to expand...

BT
I was glad to see this since i am in the same situation with about half her max being my max. i have been holding as well (thats why you see me holding with my I fund on the tracker). i too had taken som advice from the MB to stay the course and wait till it turns around. at this point I'm glad I did, but it was tough to see it dwindle to almost half. i have not reached my max, but I too have been buying the whole time. I'm CSRS but would be happy to see $500,000 in 4.5 yrs if possible when eligible to retire. although anything over would be greatly appreciated. I have said it many times, but again THANK YOU MB. I enjoy the antics and the knowledge you all are a TRIP !!!! on this MB ( better than reality t.v.)

thanks :)
John
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The silly VIX is getting ready to drop through the 21 level - that may push money into the close and leave us down minimal on the close.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Folks when you're looking for REAL INFORMATION

Regarding the TSP and Market Investments...this is the place.

Investing is not for the faint of heart and all the more not something meant for the day to day...

It is for the LONG HAUL with Trends and Realized Expectations

The MARKETS have already Climbed over 10,000

Bounced back from a 12 year LOW -- in 7 short months....

Today is simply 'consolidation' and the MARKETS will likely roar to life -- and move at speeds not seen in many years.


Th th th th th that's all folks ..... have a great weekend
 
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