Birchtree's Account Talk

[Handballer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bullitt,

The "Cooler" is still hanging around Gulfport - trying to be incognito and offering friendships. It takes time to plan the setup and then comes the execution. Today was a rather nice $K day - looking forward to the rest of the week. Trying to catch my third ever $100K week. I suspect we'll take out SPX 1117 which is the key retracement level from the March lows.

Birch I bet all those that bailed to G/F are crying in their socks now.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

merlin,

My end of year target for the Dow remains at 17,000 and at 1700 for the SPX - a little ambitious but you never know. I mean who in their right mind would think we would be up 4,000 points almost already. I've been a backer of the principle of symmetry and the Kress cycle - so I'm very positive.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX had an intraday low of 21.55 yesterday - the time to get nervous is when nobody else is nervous. That time is slowly approaching. However, right now there are so many people that do not trust the Dow at 10,000 and that's actually a positive. Besides bull markets like to climb a wall of worry. I'm in a position now where I can put my feet up and simply let the bull run and the gains would flow. But these bulls don't come along every day so I will keep buying stocks until the money well runs dry - that could take several years. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"So Many Shorts, So Little Time."

http://safehaven.com/article-14733.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"When the Dow first closed above 10,000 in 1999, it only took another 24 trading days for it to close above 11,000. After the Dow achieved 12,000, it only took seven months to hit 13,000 and then three months to hit 14,000 in July 2007."

http://www.marketwatch.com by David Callaway

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"When the Dow first closed above 10,000 in 1999, it only took another 24 trading days for it to close above 11,000. After the Dow achieved 12,000, it only took seven months to hit 13,000 and then three months to hit 14,000 in July 2007."

http://www.marketwatch.com by David Callaway

merlin,

My end of year target for the Dow remains at 17,000 and at 1700 for the SPX - a little ambitious but you never know.

Come on brother...Can't have your cake and eat it too!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The weakness in the SPX VIX is telling me we are getting ready to rally - that will give me an opportunity to clean up my last buy list. Mindylou has made up another one that is ready to go. I could step in and buy regardless but I prefer to buy on rallies because I want to pay more and lock in my previous purchases. The more shares you buy the greater the gains going forward - and this bull is going to last for years.

 

[fedgolfer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

looks like chaser day on the autotracker. sell low, buy higher... very interesting.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What I find interesting from a contrarian standpoint is that few like the higher quality C fund. It could be a classic sign in our microcosm. I'm getting anxious to spend some money.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch --- they're taking nominations for the Pansy Club Presidency !!

Do you want to be included on the Ballot ??

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This pansy decided to step in front of the train and collect a few wall flowers: BBG, BAM, TIE, BEZ, LPX, OMN, SPN, NU. That completes my previous buy list - now on to bigger and better as we move forward.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

decided to step in front of the train and collect a few wall flowers: BBG, BAM, TIE, BEZ, LPX, OMN, SPN, NU. That completes my previous buy list - now on to bigger and better as we move forward.

That's a FACT many are over looking !!

This is absolutely the most ideal time to gobble up 'select stocks' as many are only now really beginning to take off.

I got 'burned' today ~~ well kind of ~~ was really hoping the Markets would TANK for a Buy ....

But have already exceeded the 09 Goal so ... we'll see

 

[merlin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"When the Dow first closed above 10,000 in 1999, it only took another 24 trading days for it to close above 11,000. After the Dow achieved 12,000, it only took seven months to hit 13,000 and then three months to hit 14,000 in July 2007."

It would be a nice Birch.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"When the Dow first closed above 10,000 in 1999, it only took another 24 trading days for it to close above 11,000. After the Dow achieved 12,000, it only took seven months to hit 13,000 and then three months to hit 14,000 in July 2007."

It would be a nice Birch.

Man !! You're not kidding !!!

Gee Wizzzzzz

I'd get 'constipated' though ..... (the opposite of s***ing my pants)


Good Night to ALL and To ALL a Good Night

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'd get 'constipated' though ..... (the opposite of s***ing my pants)

And in that case constipation would be a good thing.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX dropped 5% today to close at 21.72. And it's not even November yet - this is really pressing the pressure. But I shall not ignore it - it's always difficult to make a move that is contrary to the trend. Baby steps might be the answer. Right now the lack of investor bullishness will put a floor under the market and prevent any weakness - but when the herd fully arrives it will be time to step back on a temporary basis. This will be one of my first swing trades when I make the moves.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX dropped 5% today to close at 21.72. And it's not even November yet - this is really pressing the pressure. But I shall not ignore it - it's always difficult to make a move that is contrary to the trend. Baby steps might be the answer. Right now the lack of investor bullishness will put a floor under the market and prevent any weakness - but when the herd fully arrives it will be time to step back on a temporary basis. This will be one of my first swing trades when I make the moves.

Birch,

If I am to guess your intent on the VIX it is this:

When it hits the norm than the market will go flat. Why have the risk without the benefit...

Is that the thought.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The normal VIX range level for complacency is around 15 - I believe that this indicator is telling me that we should get ready for some historic lift off. Smart money is getting ready to start acting smarter and start buying equities. When the bullish charge starts this market may respond with a vengeance and create much fear and panic to the upside - the exact opposite of last fall. We could easily see Dow 11,000 before October ends and I'm just going to keep buying my wall flowers all the way up. When the animal spirits start to kick in you must be on the train because it will take no prisoners for a free ride. The bull could really start to act brutal to the many short hairs still hanging on - if they don't cover their loss is limitless.

 

[Handballer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We could easily see Dow 11,000 before October ends> Thats something I would love to see.

The normal VIX range level for complacency is around 15 - I believe that this indicator is telling me that we should get ready for some historic lift off. Smart money is getting ready to start acting smarter and start buying equities. When the bullish charge starts this market may respond with a vengeance and create much fear and panic to the upside - the exact opposite of last fall. We could easily see Dow 11,000 before October ends and I'm just going to keep buying my wall flowers all the way up. When the animal spirits start to kick in you must be on the train because it will take no prisoners for a free ride. The bull could really start to act brutal to the many short hairs still hanging on - if they don't cover their loss is limitless.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If we could get Dow 11,000 in October which has historically not been a good month for the stock market - then what would November bring. November starts a period where the markets do well up until May. Another 2,000 points in November? Then another 2,000 points in December? The problem with this fantasy is that the liquidity is available and interest rates remain low. The Fed is not going to shut the markets down with increasing rates - too many 401K plans at stake. We are getting ready for a global boom and it will not be stopped. The next asset bubble could be the stock market because so few are currently participating. I'm ready for the ride of my life.