Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

I really wouldn't mind seeing the F fund touch the $12.55 price one more time before we start to deleverage again.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Following a market decline of less than 6% from its highs, sentiment of individual investors is at its most bearish level since the March lows. Based on this week's survey from the AAII, 28% of investors are bullish while 48.8% are in the bearish camp. The current bull=bear spread of negative 20.8% is the lowest level since the week ending March 12th. While single-day market declines of 6% were commonplace less than six months ago, given the scars of the bear market, a multi-week pullback of less than 6% is enough to send bulls heading for the hills, all for except Ferdinand."

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

My good news is that my new Bank of America trading account works. I just made ten purchases to get my feet wet: BAC, AKS, ABB, AA, ANF, ABM, AE, AES, ADC, AGCO. I think we rally before the day is over big time. If we tank I may drop down and do some more buying - now is the time to accumulate for the next bull run this summer.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, you are absolutely amazing!!

I've never met a more optamistic person in my life and that's one of the REAL BEAUTIES about your home. It's pretty much a guarantee that we will find 'upbeat sentiment' and something to look forward to.

Your post to Ameboa was also 'very cool' - especially in light of the past.

Have a great weekend !
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've got me 25 lonesome doves on my list to acquire next week - it's time to start accumulating again. I've been wandering the desert for six months and now I'm prepared to seek happiness and if I have to spend myself into happiness by golly I will. If we haven't had the golden cross yet it's coming and that by traditional definition is bullish. I've never regretted my purchases during the quagmire of despair last fall and ended up with some very nice buys. Now we start to load up for the next and longer bull legs. Just don't let them interest rates go up just yet because I'm using borrowed money (margin). I felt the power in my finger tips today and I didn't flinch - not much different than looking down range via a scope. Yup you all may get tired of hearing about it but that's what I'm going to be doing the rest of the summer.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

One thing that I forgot to mention is that it is so much easier to be a buyer when the indexes are this low - that's the blessing in the crash. I survived with my asset base intact and have already made close to $500K in the last 15 weeks. Now I want to do the same in the next 15 weeks. Oh, it's possible all it takes is a lot of other peoples money - who says there is a credit crisis. I could actually be buying several foreclosed homes but I prefer the simplicity of stocks and less headaches.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"There is an old saying in the markets when contemplating the end of a bear that is transitioning to a new bull market. First comes price, then comes optimism, and then come earnings. We have to check in on the weekly 14 period RSI. Above 50 is a bullish condition, especially in conjunction with the daily RSI view of life also being above 50. After a brief travel up and through the 50 demarcation line on the weekly RSI we're now falling back a bit. B ut take a look at the character of relative strength as the 2003 bull began. It stayed consistently above 50 for five quarters and pretty much went straight into overbought territory once it initially crossed the 50 demarcation line in the first quarter of 2003. So we need to watch what happens with these two different timeframe relative strength lines. For the current correction to be nothing more than a shallow dip, the weekly RSI needs to remain above the 50 barrier and the daily needs to get going north of again."

http://financialsense.com Turning in the Volume by Brian Pretti 2/29/09
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just completed ten lonely dove purchases: CBL, SNS, RT, DHT, TSTY, CPX, STO, TEN, PBY, MDS.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The VIX made new lows on Thursday and Friday, and this could be giving a leading indication for the markets that strength is returning. A drop below 25 will definitely send a strong message that normalcy has returned as participants wil be feeling confident about the future. It tends to move inversely with the markets." VIX now at 25.66.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11662.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm certainly having fun today - just booked another 10 lonesome doves: RF, TWIN, ARM, NL, ELN, WEN, EXH, EXP, FBN, TRN. I'll be buying some sweet wall flowers tomorrow and probably the rest of the week - it's been a long dry spell.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I've got me 25 lonesome doves on my list to acquire next week - it's time to start accumulating again.

It sounds like you're planning things pretty well. The Markets are boring me to death. I'd seriously rather lose a few percent than sit and do nothing - so I had my fun.

Most of the excitement seems to center on specific stocks and enjoying the buying opportunities.

I'm using borrowed money (margin).

I honestly don't understand this Birch. I've only bought what I could afford but at times I bought at the best possible price and those investments grew very well.

Who are you borrowing from and when do you need to pay them back? How much interest are they charging?

It sounds like a dangerous game to me.
Click to expand...

It also sounds totally the opposite of how I view you and have viewed you all along.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm using my current stock portfolio as collateral to borrow margin money from BAC. Once I hit $500K they will only be charging me 3% and that's my plan. Load up and take the ride. The more I have invested the more I'll make and the more I make the more margin money or buying power I'll earn. Yes, it's dangerous but I think I'm on the right side of the cycle and could end up accumulating several $M. Brother, at my age it's now or never and I'm reaching for the brass ring when no one else is interested. I'm going to use their money to buy anything I'm interested in buying. I like auto parts right now. Trains will be tomorrow.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I sure hope ya the best Birch.

From my perspective you've hit the Brass Ring already - but everything is relative.

Well if things would ever turn in the wrong direction; the Markets tumble across the board; and the Economy drags along the bottom for a year or so...

I've got some extra bedrooms
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I'm using my current stock portfolio as collateral to borrow margin money from BAC. Once I hit $500K they will only be charging me 3% and that's my plan. Load up and take the ride. The more I have invested the more I'll make and the more I make the more margin money or buying power I'll earn. Yes, it's dangerous but I think I'm on the right side of the cycle and could end up accumulating several $M. Brother, at my age it's now or never and I'm reaching for the brass ring when no one else is interested. I'm going to use their money to buy anything I'm interested in buying. I like auto parts right now. Trains will be tomorrow.
Click to expand...
auto parts ::blink:this woke me up:laugh::)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've ridden the bottom already - several times over the last number of years. Now I'm after the best that the bull can offer. The more you have in the more you can win. As long as interest rates remain low and I can thank the sorry subprimers for that - I'll benefit. Accumulating is the name of the game and using leverage is the strategy. My portfolio will self feed on itself. I'm still utilizing dividend reinvestments to fill in the cracks. Yup, I'm on my way to ride this train as far as it will take me. My target date for the Dow is still 17,000 by the end of the year.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

karcrazy,

I gave my 1976 TR7 away a few years ago because I didn't have time to keep it up - I had it for twenty-five years and she was sweet. The guy I gave it to spent a little time with it and sold it to someone else. That person put it on Craig's list for sale. A man in Sarasota bought it for $500 and because I provided all the maintenance records with the car everything was still intact - he and his 15 year old son are going to redo the car for high school. So he called me to talk - and I told him for a car that was 33 he had a cherry. It's nice to see my Triumph continue to live and find a good home. Only men can understand. He now has the total history of the car and the expenses I endured keeping it running - and he can call me anytime to discuss any problems. It makes the heart feel good.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks Birch --

Mondays are always swamped for me and I'm half asleep and the other half is flying with all the activity around me.

I know you've got to know what you're doing - so we'll just leave it there cause it's way beyond me. The whole margin thing is something I've never taken the time to learn; then again with my folks and Mama Bear :cheesy: you'd understand why.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I believe this Thursday is non-farm payrolls again - look for -235,000 as a pleasant surprise. This recession has been an anomaly because productivity actually rose - that's not new to some of us. It does imply that companies cut costs dramatically, and if demand picks up it would suggest corporate profits could explode. Maybe that's what the rally has been all about. It's time to load up the truck May I please have another 100 point rally tomorrow - I'm ready to chase the momentum.
 
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