Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"A typical 55% recovery points to a 10,000 Dow - a nice round number, but no cause for great celebration. However, a historical bottom like 1932, 1974, 1982 or 2009 implies a greater return. A reversion to the mean implies a market recovery on the order of 75% to 100% in two years."

http://blogs.navellier.com/all_cap/...nce_1929_impliesthe_best_recovery_since_1932/

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, I'm brewing up a nice Barley wine that we will pop in 2 years. Sounds like a good time span to buy low.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"To repeat, the strongest argument that this rally is sustainable is the historical pattern that bull markets start about 6 months before the end of recessions, backed up by growing evidence that the current recession is in its final months."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/137317-this-rally-is-sustainable

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What ever happened to ekatteng? Now that guy had a system that was undeniable - lousy. But he did have confidence in his system's abilities. Robo, did I run this one off by any chance?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The infamous Bill Miller says financial companies are his favorite investment for the rest of the decade. That makes me feel a lot better knowing I'm not entirely alone owning a toxic waste portfolio.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The infamous Bill Miller says financial companies are his favorite investment for the rest of the decade. That makes me feel a lot better knowing I'm not entirely alone owning a toxic waste portfolio.

The BANKS rule Birch !!

Sometimes I wonder if you and I (and everyone else) who have managed to save and invest and make a comfortable 'nest egg' should sacrifice a lot of that for those in greater need?

In the long run I think that's what it all about - but I would only be willing to do this if I chose where to spend and independently decided how much I wanted to give.

So if I settled down in Western NC in the beautiful mountains then I may want to donate to this group or that - maybe even set up some scholerships at the local High School and invest in things that protect and promote my community. But I do not want the Government taking my money and spending it however they please. I guess I'm amazed how this fear of having my money taken is making me increasingly determined to protect it.

Anyway - the BANKS are a guaranteed solid investment - but I wish there was a better place to put my money where I would have more control and they would have less.

Well have a good weekend Birch

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The next development to watch is the possible formation of a reverse head and shoulders pattern. The ideal resolution (if you are a bull like Birchtree) would be for the correction to end in the area of 750-800, then for a rally to blast up through the neckline. If that were to happen, the minimum upside target would be equal to the distance between the top of the head and the neckline - about 1200 on the SPX."

http://[[[financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2009/0515.html

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
Lets split the difference and call it 775. Thats where I lauch my boat from.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The next development to watch is the possible formation of a reverse head and shoulders pattern. The ideal resolution (if you are a bull like Birchtree) would be for the correction to end in the area of 750-800, then for a rally to blast up through the neckline. If that were to happen, the minimum upside target would be equal to the distance between the top of the head and the neckline - about 1200 on the SPX."

http://[[[financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2009/0515.html

That sounds nice, but head and shoulders patterns will not move the markets except for brief periods. I would like to agree with Birch, and normally I would. After all, long term buy and hold has a long history over a hundred years, through thick and thin right?

"The market seems to be looking as if this is going to be an average recession, but it's not," said Paul Krugman, Princeton University's Nobel Prize-winning economist.

I agree with Paul...and to me, it seems rather obvious. Recessions are part of the "normal" business cycle right? This is not a normal recession, as it was caused by a breakdown of the foundations of the system on which the secular bull was built.

Sad to say, it seems to me like our country may be going down the toilet. We can't blow another bubble, and the politicians do not want to come to terms with what they REALLY need to do...that is, the painful choice of LETTING THE F****ING SYSTEM WORK LIKE IT WAS DESIGNED TO DO! Sure, the S&P may drop to 400 if we default all the debt, but once we do, IT WILL BE OUT OF THE SYSTEM AND WE WILL HAVE A SOLID FOUNDATION ON WHICH TO BUILD DAMMIT!

BUT NO...we have to bail out whiny unions and rich bankers and force feed the masses more debt all costs because we need to keep the money flowing to the bankers. I was really rooting for the candy crapping unicorn solution, but I do not see him anywhere. Sorry.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Economists in the latest Wall Street Journal survey see an end to the recession by autum, but say it will take years for the economy to fully recover. On average, the 52 economists who participated in the survey project that the recession will end in August. They expect gross domestic product to contract 1.4% at a seasonally adjusted annualized pace in the current quarter, compared with the 6.1% drop recorded in the first quarter. Slow growth is expected to return by the third quarter, with the economy expanding more than 2% in the first half of 2010."

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well shucks I took a $112K shock to my oceanic account last week - that leaves me up only $367K for the ten week period. But I'm sure it was a necessary pause to refresh and I'll get double that back in the next few weeks. This is a new bull market isn't it. I have ten dividends to be reinvested on Monday so one more down day won't matter at this point. I've tried so hard for so long to get a $100K week to the upside and it just never seems to happen - but I'll keep the faith. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Most of the time, when a stock breaks to the downside of a rising-wedge pattern, it goes on to lose at least 50% of the gains from the start of the wedge. The bear market rally started at 675 on the S&P, and it topped at 925. That's a total gain of 250 points. So we can expect the S&P 500 to give up at least 125 points and perhaps bottom around 800 or so."

http://www.growthstockwire.com/archive/2009/may/2009_may_14.asp

 

[mick504]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree....thanks for the information and website....always looking for 'good' financial sites...then read and make own decisions. Looking for a new S&P low to get back in....currently in G 100% Take Care!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Although the S&P 500 lost 4.9% for the week, the bullish contingent actually grew stronger. It takes bulls to make a bull market."

http://safehaven.com/article-13352.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My, my we are creeping up on the Dow 200 day moving average resting at 8921 - we could take it out this week. The SPX 200 day is resting at 946 and that could also probably fall. Can you believe that Libor rates are declining to record lows - is that a green shoot? The percentage of companies raising their earnings guidance increased by over 70%.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The percentage of companies raising their earnings guidance increased by over 70%.

Where did you hear that?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Tom,

I believe it was from Bespoke - something they wrote last week.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
Let's call it a game of tennis.

The BULL against the BEAR

Looking at all 3 High Risk Funds - and the inverse F Fund.

The BULL just smashed the ball over the net of the left side of the court with perhaps the greatest amount of backspin ever known.

The BEAR is way on the other end of the right side of the court. He can tell no matter how fast he runs he will not be able to get to the ball in time. This represents the F Fund dropping. In addition when the ball lands it will barely bounce - and then it'll just roll on the ground. This represents the solid position of C,S, and I.

GAME: goes to Mr. BULL

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX is now at 30.75 - time to pump up the volume. The bull has plenty of room to run before the day settles. The NYSE resistance at 6000 will fall this week - potentially. We are now at 5825. I want to see a 250 point gain on the day - to heck with my dividend reinvestments today - I'll just have to pay more and buy less.

 

[Medic72]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

mmm

first day back after a 3 day hiatus!

nice green numbers!

i like it alot

SNORT!

p.s. im gonna figure out where to post my kidnapping story on the boards here, not sure if i should, but i know yall would like to hear it. (my partner and I were kidnapped while at work)