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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Being the humble type person that I am I'd prefer not to purchase my next C fund price above $10. Just one more bite in the $9.00 range, please. It's been so nice to get more shares for the dollars working - but I knew it wasn't going to last. We did skip the $11 and $12 ranges on the way down so there is plenty of opportunity left to accumulate those shares while moving to the upside. I'm glad I practice buy and hold.Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'm glad your a Buy and Hold'er too ! It's kinda like my relationships before
getting married ! You know what I mean, I had to pay for a hug. Only
your hugs came at lesser expense then mine because you buy low ! :nuts:
caymanbrac12
Member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The S&P 500 has stalled out just below a key resistance area in the mid 850's which corresponds to its 20 Week EMA and 23.6% retracement Level. I'm looking for a consolidation and support maybe around 770.
Flip side - looking longer term maybe around 950 or 960 resistance on the s & p if we break thru 850.
So moment of truth on a breakout.
All hedged out. Bottom fishing worked out today at least on the banks so all is not bad on the "left" coast.
Hey Birch - have you been practicing the proper bowing technique if you slip over to Saudi Arabia???
Maybe some practice on ring kissing might be in order. By the way have you heard we are no longer a christian nation? I guess Thomas Jefferson and George Washington maybe missed the memo. We are open to all religions but last time I check we were still predominantly Christian by about 70%.
Guess I'm getting too old and can't understand the new "rules".
Change is in the air.RonUSPSretired
Member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I don't want to understand the new rules!
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I may have mentioned somewhere the other day that if the BKX (Bank Index) could move strongly above 31 it would probably send a powerfully bullish message. Well would you believe the BKX closed today at 33.81 +5.66. Let the bearish pain begin. Everyone and their sister is either truly negative or in short positions - either way hesitation will be expensive. The VIX closed out the day at 36.53 down 2.32. You know the chart slaves are chomping on their bits - the institutions were heavy buyers today.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
This will be week number five for positive gains - if I made less than $40K today I'll be disappointed. We need a nice run of those 50 point SPX days like the bears had on the downside - something like 18 different times. That would confirm real bull market activity rather than a cyclical bear market rally. While it's true that a few stampedes have lasted 25 to 30 sessions, it is very rare to have one last more than 30 sessions during a bear market rally. So I'm not counting the days because I think we may run hard into September. In my view, and I know I've repeated this several times, the risk of not being in the market now exceeds the magnitude of the risk of being in the market. Be in to win.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
A good article with history on the merits or the lack thereof on a "Sucker Rally".
http://safehaven.com/article-13052.htm
Boghie
Well-known member
Wish I was in a bit more...
BirchTree,
Awesome news on the daily gain. Made a bit myself today - but, didn't have the nads to go 'all in'. And, tomorrow is an IFT Vacation. They will all be driving their Country Wagon to 'Wally World' or something.
Maybe Wally will holler at them about the IFT Trading limits. Those things affect even non-traders like me. October and November 2008 taught me a thing or two about keeping the powder dry...
Handballer
Active member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Thanks Birchtree for being our cheerleader. Your posting have pulled a lot of us further into the markets and we have benefited from your wisdom. It looks like being in the market now is a lot less risky than a few months ago. Best of luck to all of us. And happy Easter to all.
KevinD
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
+1! Thanks Birch! Keep beating that drum!
Happy Easter everybody!
Re: Birchtree's account talk
+1! Thanks Birch! Keep beating that drum!
Happy Easter everybody!
His drum? I thought it was his chest ! .............Treasure Chest that is ! :nuts:
justbizness45
Member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch my friend, I think we are far from out of the woods on this market. That being said, I think this rally still has some legs left. So I am bullish in the short term and that's why I am in 100% right now. Thanks for continuing to wave the red flag, it keeps the bull moving. Maybe he can stick a horn in the bear on his way by.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I say to all be strong and stay long. Yesterday the oceanic account took in $66K and the tugboat is doing well also. That left me up $40K for week number five. A few words from Hussman: "Obviously, many investors are still non-believers in the rally. Before the next top is in, we normally expect to see investor sentiment reversed to the opposite extreme, where bullishness would be above 55%. Until then, their slowly increasing bullishness and confidence is providing additional fuel for the rally. Currently 44% bearish and 36% bullish on AAII." I would call yesterday another melt-up day similar to 3/23. It is unheard of for a bear rally to have some of its biggest days a couple weeks in. For me this is the real steal.
DCguy
Member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
though i dont agree 100%, i regret not being in stock 100%.
i see an ocsillation of s&p500 near 850.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I see the angle of ascent of the big V continuing to the 200 day MA around 1000 SPX. I'm reminded that there are around 10,000 stupid hedge fund managers with rectums bulging with cash - they were responsible for destroying this market back in September. Now they are anxiously wanting to pull the trigger because they are being punished every day while missing these gains. When they move in lock step their rocket fuel will propel this market higher like a sling shot. There is no longer any glory holding cash with the thought of taxes and insipient inflation in the future. They will push the VIX into the lower twenties - then will be the time to side step the drama for a few weeks but do it in a dollar cost averaging sort of way. With so many investors looking to buy a pullback, we aren't seeing much of one and likely won't for a few more months. So let the punishment continue for those that panicked on the way down. Retail sales to be released on April 14th are looking for a fourth straight higher month - that's a fundamental to pay attention to. Some like Kudlow are saying we may see a positive GDP in the second quarter ending June'09 - this would fit with a call for 950 to 1000 and several prominent analysts are calling for the rally to extend until September. Be strong and stay long.
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Okay Birch, now you've done it! All day now I'm going to be humming, "...and now the days are short, I'm in the autumn of my years, and now I think of my life as vintage wine in fine old kegs...." :laugh:
Lady
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Buy Signal Confirmed. This week the bullish undercurrent persisted and may even be strengthening. Thursday's strong rally on expanding volume certainly suggests that this is so." It surely would be sweet if the 200 (EMA) at 967.48 were to fall next week - it's only 100 points to go. Yes, the sweet smell of superlative bull manure is every where this weekend - soon it will permeate the silly hedge funds and curl the bear's nostrils. For me profitability resides in the ride ahead. Let the majority of lily padders ignore the new cyclical recovery bull market - it's a classic situation. Snort.
http://decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090409_buysig.htmlSimilar threads
