Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've been looking over my dollar cost averaging strategy to see how fate has treated me during this unprecedented bear market tumble. On the way down I managed to make 6 buys on the C daddy in the $10 range - we completely fell right through the $12 and $11 dollar ranges. Since C daddy bottomed on March 9th at $7.86 my cheapest buy was at $8.54 and $8.80. I did manage 6 buys in the $9 range with my last purchase made at I believe will be $9.98. This has garnered me many more shares for the ride back up, but I have a fear I may miss the $10 range because I think we are about to blow right through this range before the next two weeks are up. But since I didn't get any buys in the $11 range on the way down now I should be allowed to participate in at least a few buys while we load for higher moves - but of course it all depends on fate. I just don't think we are destined to hang around these low prices for very long. The predominant emotion remains fear - fear to pull the trigger and that can be costly.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Commodities, as seen by copper's recent activity, have a number of forces working in their favor that should keep the secular nature of their bulls alive. This recession is likely to be a bump in the road to prosperity that the developing economies will champion for years to come. And investors have incredible opportunities to buy highly oversold elite commodities stocks that should greatly outperform the general markets in years to come." I sold many of my commodity stocks in July'08 at a $169K profit and reinvested that profit plus principle into my toxic waste financial porfolio consisting of around 45 different issues. That portfolio came alive this week. But I do long to start buying commodity stocks again - the sacrifice is I have to sell something in order to do it. Sometimes life is just not fair.

http://safehaven.com/article-13058.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Misrepresenting "How We Arrived at This Moment".

http://safehaven.com/article-13032.htm

Am I sane enough to think I can make another $300K in the next five weeks ending 5/15? All I'm essentially doing is riding the train with my intact asset base. I don't plan to make any changes for the moment - just enjoying the cycle. With only 36% bullish on the AAII survey it makes me gush with greed. The fewer that participate the better - so you chicletts please don't pay any attention to anything I say unless it's of a negative bent.
 
Allocation...

BirchTree,

Do you use one broad allocation that you have mapped to your situation, or do you have a couple/three allocations that you use?

I used to be fairly successful using three allocations - one dead center, one about 20% more conservative, one about 20% more aggressive. Kinda broke down last year. It broke, not by limiting losses (I lost only 20% last year) but by not giving me the confidence to be more in the market now. At my age (44) I should be far more invested than 40% in C/S/I.

Actually, now that I blather on your site I know the answer. On Monday the next IFT will take me to the middlin' allocation. Hopefully, we won't crater.:sick:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm reading in TWSJ that mutual fund managers are loaded up with cash - such fools they are. They sold in September with a vengence at the wrong time and sooner or later they will be forced to buy back in with the same degree of vengence - only this time they will be late to the party. Some of these guys are sitting on 33% to 60% cash earning no income. Hesitation every day is costing them gains and when the explosion arrives it will be like a geiser spouting and the race will be on. There is more cash available to buy shares than at any time in almost two decades. Often times taking the road less traveled leads to higher returns. Yes sir, the biggest surprise for the majority would be for a day to day advance in the face of all the gloom and doom. This recovery rally of 2009 will turn out to be enormous and exceedingly profitable for those brave contrarian souls who bought in the midst of the panic at the depths of popular despair. Some like Kudlow are already anticipating the end of the recession buy September. The economic climate is being transformed from bleak to bullish at one of the most rapid rates ever - the smell of superlative bull manure is everywhere.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Whether equity markets make a complete about face and resume their bear market as Venus turns direct, or they undergo only a short-loved corrective decline and continue in this new bull market trend, may depend on the correspondence of the forthcoming Ju[iter-Neptune conjunction. This 14 year planetary cycle will be at its peak May 27-July 10."

http://www.mmacycles.com
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"US small caps have been running hard over the past few weeks, as can be seen from the rising trend line of the S&P 600 Small Cap Index relative to the S&P 500 Large Cap Index since March 9 lows. The fact that small companies are now outperforming the larger ones is an indication that investors are becoming less risk averse - a positive sign for equities in general to improve further. So over the next few sessions watch the skew of decliners to advancers and down to up volume. As long as we don't get ratios of 5 to 1 or higher on both indicators the likelihood of a retest in the near term is lessened."

http://safehaven.com/article-13064.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"VIX: Decisive breakdown validates near term buying panic hypothesis. A quick recersal above 40 needed to invalidate this view. Given the duration of the chart formation and the MA (moving average) squeeze this is not likely to be a false move. Targeting 30 to coincide with SPX 1000. The setup is for an explosive move to 950 on the SPX as the recent rally has been met with skepticism and continued attempts to lay on short positions. There may be a recognition point this week as bears realize they are on the wrong side of the market and sideline bulls like Coolhand jump on board fearing to miss out on a new bull market." Is it the Saturn-Uranus opposition kicking in?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article9990.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've had 75% in play since the 16th of march, the 25% safely in g is burnin a hole, i want to push the rest in, but not sure i should at the prices now, a share is a shares is a share, and as long as it goes up thats a positive right?

Any ideas/advice birch?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

My fear is that if we ignite a buying panic we blow right through the C fund $10 range - best to buy now and don't look back. Remember the Elvis song: "Only the Lonely". Well, only the hoofhearted know the way I feel to night. Only the hoofhearted know this feeling is right. The point of recognition is almost here.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The banks are holding their own this morning even with the Dow down 90. The A/D line is fairly even so I will look for a rebound sometime today. Many MB members still way negative looking for proof of an economic turn before they invest again. The problem is the market will be up 50% before the turn is confirmed. So staying on the lily pad will be beneficial as more fuel in reserve will eventually push us higher when the herd decides enough is enough and contributes to a buying panic. I need to make some money this week - no capital preservation for me only capital appreciation.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The NYSE is down only -4.62 and may lead the bulls to greener pastures before the close. The financials are very positive today.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"...today is session 25 in our day count sequence. As previously stated, while it's true some stampedes have lasted 25 to 30 sessions, it is rare for one to last for more than 30 sessions. In fact, I can count on one hand the number of upside stampedes that have extended for more than 30 sessions, the longest one being 41 days."

http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The NYSE is up 49.68 - will the Dow follow. Perhaps with this good start this will end up being finally my first ever $100K week. Also the NY composite AD MCO at +97 is the highest it has been since 1991 - there is more gain to go my friends. Be in to win.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Today my salvation was with my toxic waste portfolio - all financials were hot. I'm looking for a melt up day tomorrow. The NYSE did close strong up 33 points.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The BKX banking index closed out the day at 36.47 up 2.66. At this rate of advance how long will it take to get back to the last top of 45? I'm sure glad I bought all those stinky banks.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

It looks like today will be a wash - but I do have 5 dividend reinvestments hitting the account so not all is lost.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"You have to know which indicators to look at but when you examine them all in their proper context the intermediate-term picture that emerges is much more encouraging than the bleak picture being painted by doom and gloom member Corepuncher."

http://safehaven.com/article-13085.htm
 
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