Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm waiting for another melt-up day this week like we had on March 23rd. That day the SPX blasted 7.1% higher. And was 10 days into this rally.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I'm waiting for another melt-up day this week like we had on March 23rd. That day the SPX blasted 7.1% higher. And was 10 days into this rally.
Click to expand...

More of those the merrier. Looks like some profit taking this week. I'm waiting for a drop of 5% from the recent highs and will look to make a short play.

Geaux

View attachment 6140
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yup, late 2002 and early 2003 was absolutely a classic SPX bottoming period and today's SPX action mirrors these bottoming patterns of behavior very well. See my post with 'Boo' squalebear's thread post #3484. Sustained extreme volatility only happens in bottoming periods. Maybe that's why the VIX is so sticky around the forty level. It's only after all the traders scared into selling near the bottoming lows have sold that the subsequent rally can launch - stock markets bottom when almost no one expects it. Yup, bulls are born in despair. Even now we have top trackers getting out of the way going back to the lily pad - that's just what the bull likes.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

When the market was down 150 points yesterday I decided to go spend two hours in my garden - replanting some corn and squash that refused to germinate. Today I will go out and mow and edge the lawns. It looks like we are off to a two person race around the tracker top between clester and optionman - who will blink first. Scribbler and gonefishin have pulled over to the lily pad - though Scribbler still has a leg in at 50C.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree,
with those VIX numbers this could be setting up for an interesting week. I know it measures volatility but is it not also a indicator of those betting against the market. If so it would seem that there is some indicision.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Yup, bulls are born in despair. Even now we have top trackers getting out of the way going back to the lily pad - that's just what the bull likes.
Click to expand...

Well Birch, all's I can say is; "from your mouth to God's ears" !
I repositioned my portfolio for a Intermediate-Long Term hope.
But I must tell you my friend, 600's in the S&P would be one
heck of a steep drop and I'm hoping to stay off the Prozac at
this Level. :blink: I'll be on Lithium at 700's :o and in a padded cell
by the 600's. :nuts:

I'm still hoping for 795 to hold before pure panic sets in.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'll share a cell with ya SB. Birch is used to the pressure and will be sipping scotch.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, here's some Bull feed. ;)


Number of S&P 500 stocks above their Simple moving Averages.

382 above the 20 SMA
355 above the 50 SMA
116 above the 150 SMA
55 above the 200 SMA

And 47 Stocks still above all 4 SMAs.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Robert Brusca says; "But why, after we have a 20% gain in the stock market, does nobody want to call it a bull market?" Well there goes my Centex (CTX) for a 38% premium to Pulte (PHM) - that will increase my Pulte position. I know no one has been watching Ruby Tuesday (RT) lately, but it has moved from $0.85 to $5.77. I'm in at a low of $1.45, $2.06, $6.15, $7.00 all the way to $10.00. But I bought many more shares on the lows back on 11/26/08 and 10/28/08. Now when it reaches $25 I'll really be in the dough on this one.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Here is a nice little negative article for those tepid lily padders.

"Sustainable Bull Market Not Likely. The probability of a cyclical bull market taking shape has increased in recent weeks as investors have shown an increased appetite for risk in some markets. A cyclical bull market, in contrast to a secular bull market, is much shorter in duration and eventually gives way to the primary bearish trend. A cyclical bull market could see the S&P 500 advance as high as 940, which is 15% higher than current levels. Under the cyclical bull market scenario, stocks would take one of three paths after making higher highs (above 840):

a, A correction back toward 840
b, A successful retest of the November 2008 or March 2009 lows (666-741)
c, New bear market lows (below 666 on the SPX)"

http://safehaven/article-13038.htm

And since I'm a strong believer in a continuation of the 1982 mega trend secular bull market I can't give the article much relevance - sorry. My gosh RT is now at $6.30 - is there a possible takeover that has yet to be annonced. That's a 549% gain in one month - good earnings I guess.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Medic72,

Did you know that in Florida EMTs are treated as a high risk catagory for retirement. That means the state of Florida contributes 20% of their salary to their defined contribution plan. The FRS is very similar to TSP.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've been waiting on another melt up day. Watching my Wells Fargo (WFC) run with the bull for the moment. Today should be a crack the VIX day driving it below yesterday's close of 38.81. Breaking support should send a strong signal to investors and moving further down below the two converging trend lines would indicate further strength of the rally. I figurerd this week would be my first negative week since the rally started but with a gain so far of 175 Dow points I should be kosher.
 
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