-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
div>
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
McDuck
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 46
Geaux4it
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 5
Re: Birchtree's account talk
More of those the merrier. Looks like some profit taking this week. I'm waiting for a drop of 5% from the recent highs and will look to make a short play.
Geaux
View attachment 6140Re: Birchtree's account talk
My Response:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=215821&postcount=3483
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Yup, late 2002 and early 2003 was absolutely a classic SPX bottoming period and today's SPX action mirrors these bottoming patterns of behavior very well. See my post with 'Boo' squalebear's thread post #3484. Sustained extreme volatility only happens in bottoming periods. Maybe that's why the VIX is so sticky around the forty level. It's only after all the traders scared into selling near the bottoming lows have sold that the subsequent rally can launch - stock markets bottom when almost no one expects it. Yup, bulls are born in despair. Even now we have top trackers getting out of the way going back to the lily pad - that's just what the bull likes.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
When the market was down 150 points yesterday I decided to go spend two hours in my garden - replanting some corn and squash that refused to germinate. Today I will go out and mow and edge the lawns. It looks like we are off to a two person race around the tracker top between clester and optionman - who will blink first. Scribbler and gonefishin have pulled over to the lily pad - though Scribbler still has a leg in at 50C.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Well Hoofy "What the start of a Bull Market will look like"
http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
WorkFE
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 431
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birchtree,
with those VIX numbers this could be setting up for an interesting week. I know it measures volatility but is it not also a indicator of those betting against the market. If so it would seem that there is some indicision.Re: Birchtree's account talk
Well Birch, all's I can say is; "from your mouth to God's ears" !
I repositioned my portfolio for a Intermediate-Long Term hope.
But I must tell you my friend, 600's in the S&P would be one
heck of a steep drop and I'm hoping to stay off the Prozac at
this Level. :blink: I'll be on Lithium at 700's
and in a padded cell
by the 600's. :nuts:
I'm still hoping for 795 to hold before pure panic sets in.
- Reaction score
- 576
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'm drinking some beer right now!:nuts: Let's hope April finishes like March.
-3.75% in two days.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Robert Brusca says; "But why, after we have a 20% gain in the stock market, does nobody want to call it a bull market?" Well there goes my Centex (CTX) for a 38% premium to Pulte (PHM) - that will increase my Pulte position. I know no one has been watching Ruby Tuesday (RT) lately, but it has moved from $0.85 to $5.77. I'm in at a low of $1.45, $2.06, $6.15, $7.00 all the way to $10.00. But I bought many more shares on the lows back on 11/26/08 and 10/28/08. Now when it reaches $25 I'll really be in the dough on this one.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Here is a nice little negative article for those tepid lily padders.
"Sustainable Bull Market Not Likely. The probability of a cyclical bull market taking shape has increased in recent weeks as investors have shown an increased appetite for risk in some markets. A cyclical bull market, in contrast to a secular bull market, is much shorter in duration and eventually gives way to the primary bearish trend. A cyclical bull market could see the S&P 500 advance as high as 940, which is 15% higher than current levels. Under the cyclical bull market scenario, stocks would take one of three paths after making higher highs (above 840):
a, A correction back toward 840
b, A successful retest of the November 2008 or March 2009 lows (666-741)
c, New bear market lows (below 666 on the SPX)"
http://safehaven/article-13038.htm
And since I'm a strong believer in a continuation of the 1982 mega trend secular bull market I can't give the article much relevance - sorry. My gosh RT is now at $6.30 - is there a possible takeover that has yet to be annonced. That's a 549% gain in one month - good earnings I guess.
McDuck
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 46
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Medic72,
Did you know that in Florida EMTs are treated as a high risk catagory for retirement. That means the state of Florida contributes 20% of their salary to their defined contribution plan. The FRS is very similar to TSP.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I've been waiting on another melt up day. Watching my Wells Fargo (WFC) run with the bull for the moment. Today should be a crack the VIX day driving it below yesterday's close of 38.81. Breaking support should send a strong signal to investors and moving further down below the two converging trend lines would indicate further strength of the rally. I figurerd this week would be my first negative week since the rally started but with a gain so far of 175 Dow points I should be kosher.Similar threads
