Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, I believe the VIX ended around 40.55.
Would like to see it in the 30's
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

About 70% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are currently trading above their 50-days, which is getting close to the 75%-80% level that we've seen at prior peaks during this bear market - but that's up from a low level of 3%. The 200-days are still around 10%. The 200 EMA is downward sloping, so perhaps the 200 EMA is tagged at an area closer to 900 on the SPX than where it is now. Using the 50 day and 200 day exponentially smoothed moving averages, we get a long term buy signal when the shorter average crosses above the longer average. There are now 16 billion shares short and growing because of non-believers in this new bull market. The 840 SPX level is the 100 day MA and could fall to the horns today - even though we will open to the downside this morning. And my good news, finally, is that I'm currently up $103K for the week and if I can hold the line today this will be my first ever $100K week. So bring on the sellers and shorts and may they be absorbed by all the bull manure that's piling up.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Nah, not yet. I'll have to wait on the close - but I think we'll close green. Then there is next week - how much will I have to give back if we refresh. During the first two weeks of the rally I made: $91K and then $41K. I do however have four dividends that will be reinvested today so a lower closing won't hurt that much. But I'm willing to sacrifice those dividends to keep my $103K. Here come the bulls.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

With just two trading days left, I'm sure the CNBC folks can't wait to tell us that in March the S&P 500 gained over 10%

Will they leave out the fact that in February the S&P 500 lost 10.99% ?

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well shucks I ended up the week at a positive $68K - that only makes me more determined for next week though. I'm bound to achieve some successful eventually. I have made $200K for the last three weeks and collected some nice dividend hits yesterday. And I collected some C fund shares at $9.50 so all is right with the world. Next week we could get reports on the uptick rule and perhaps a surprise on FASB 157 accounting modifications. A 30% rise of the SPX would be at the January 28th level of 878. The 100 day MA of 840 should fall to the horns next week. If we tackle 943.85 sometime in April that would put us about 42% above the 666 low - be ready.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The fact that the market has been up 11 of the last 15 sessions despite some intense micro-term overbought conditions indicates to me that a powerful intermediate term bullish signals likely are STILL pre-dominant, which if accurate means that weakness will be muted until the intermediate term technicals run their course on the upside. Near term, as long as the SPX does not implode beneath critical support at 795-788, the bulls remain in directional control. Traders may also want to watch the 803.50 level which is the dominant March up-trendline." The S&P dropped over 50 points 18 times in 2008 - it's now time for a few of those 50 pointers on the upside. The biggest up years in stock market history occur immediately after panic down years. Some are wondering how this rally can be happening - it's basically simple. Stock markets recover sharply after big down years even if the economic recovery takes longer to arrive. Lily padders unite. Snort. Catching a big V bottom with a parabolic move will not be an easy play.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"A 20-Week Cycle is due in a week or so. (Lily padders pay attention). A possible scenario is that, after a short correction/retest, a new 20-Week Cycle could launch the second half of the current rally. My upside target would be about 1,000 on the S&P 500. We are now waiting for the 20-EMA to cross through the 50-EMA, which will confirm the short-term sugnal and make whipsaw less likely."

http://[[[financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2009/0327.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

3/27/2009
'Perfect Storm' Puts All Types In Financial Peril
- USA Today

3/27/2009
Economy Shrinks As Job Losses Continue To Mount
- Washington Post

3/27/2009
Consumer Spending Fades In February
- Wall Street Journal

3/27/2009
Is California Going Bust?
- Forbes

3/27/2009
Charter Communications Files For Bankruptcy
- Wall Street Journal

3/27/2009
Hundreds Lose Jobs At Disney World
- Orlando Sentinel

3/27/2009
Times Co. Announces Temporary Salary Cuts
- New York Times

3/27/2009
Johnson Controls To Close 10 Plants
- Wall Street Journal

3/27/2009
Soros Says Commercial Property Values Will Fall 30%
- Bloomberg

3/27/2009
A Downturn Wraps A City In Hesitance
- New York Times
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The end to this bear will start with a significant rally that will be tested and supported and held. We might just experience such an event over the coming earnings season. For those wondering why the stock market has exploded they might be interested in studying the chart below. This sets out clearly the proposition that the market has a long term correlation to currency in circulation. With the quantative easing policy now firmly in place. It is quite possible the "old heads" about the market know of the relationship. Thus regardless of fundamental issues they may sense the groundwork being laid for a technical recovery based on finance alone."

http://[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/quigley/2009/0327.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree:
I like Carl Swenlin's editorial and think it is spot on.

The US dollar safe-haven theroy for the world will drive the bear higher to spx 980. or wherever the 200 sma is by then. I like the 20/50 ema crossover idea as support, as this is a necktie that will be strong support, and the market will build from that point.

See weakness in the near term however.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

McDuck,


If you continue to post those nice articles in my thread I won't have to open my own premium blogosphere. Thanx again.
 
Re: imported post

Birchtree said:
Thanx Pyriel- we need some more Roth IRA talk.

The Goldman Sachs financial-conditions index which attempts to measure how much stimulus there is in the economy, stands right about where it was when the Fed starting raising rates last year. After the 8th Fed tightening financial conditions suprisingly have not become much tougher. Yet. This is a reason to be bullish.

The Fed is searching for neutrality, not actively trying to suppress a mild bout of temporary inflation. The Fed wants the option to be able to reduce rates in case of another unforseen problem arises that is an economic threat.

The consumer is still spending, only not as much lately, but we are in transition to increasing capital spending by industry. The economy is not to hot or to cold. The GDP in the area of 3.0-3.5% can last a long time without igniting rampant inflation.

Many companies are buying back their own stock and increasing dividends. Income has become important to the investor once again. I have to be bullish in this environment-we are at the cusp of a back to back secular bull market which may well last ten years like the last one.

There are so many reasons to be a renegade contrarian-color me BULLISH.
Click to expand...

Just checking in. Believe me when I say I'm doing my part on spending LOL. Playing with the financials when we had that nice turn around the 9th Aig made me a couple of bucks among others such as FITB etc. ;) Still made a few more bucks with the dry shippers but that has about run its course until we see a huge turn around in the BDI.

Overall without going into to much detail this has been one of my best years % wise so I can't complain.

Hope your strategies are working out for you.

As a side note I'm dumbfounded over the lack of knowledge i.e. Congress has regarding the markets in general that they are suppose to org. groups to oversee things. You can't even make this up.

I still don't think Obama knows the difference between an HMO and a CDO let alone how credit defaults swap works.

It's like the patients have taken over the asylum. LOL :blink: i.e. Barney Frank, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Charlie Rangle and the list just goes on and on .....

cayman
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just finished my taxes and I thank the Bush AdministratiButon for the 15% tax on dividends and capital gains - they saved me some serious dollars. But I realize there may be pain delivered in the coming years when the 15% sunsets.

"During a bull market, it pays to be skeptical of the significance of a correction in stocks or bad news. It also pays to take what the bears say with a grain of salt because the primary trend in a bull market is up. Our goal is to stay with the primary trend as long as possible within the framework of good money management, which, to some degree, requires the ability to tune out day to day distractions. If we do indeed have a bottom in place, we can adjust as the observable evidence unfolds. In a new bull market, there will be plenty of time to make money. Even if the recent lows were "the bottom", the odds are good those lows will be retested in the coming weeks or months, which would throw a little cold water on the Wall Street perma-bull mantra of, "you can't miss the start of a new bull market".

http://safehaven.com/article-12967.htm

I gave back $79K in two down days - will get some of that back today. Looking forward to Thursday and the FASB 157 modifications - the market should react in a positive manner.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/100-days-from-major-troughs/

Can we hold SPX 800 today? I have 21 dividends due for reinvestment today and a higher close will buy me fewer shares - such as my luck. Because we had such a strong March rally, one strong down day may not have any impact on the near term outlook. I think today will be proof of bullish strength and intent. We could see SPX above 940 before April ends and that would be very positive for the bullish case.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/100-days-from-major-troughs/

Can we hold SPX 800 today? I have 21 dividends due for reinvestment today and a higher close will buy me fewer shares - such as my luck. Because we had such a strong March rally, one strong down day may not have any impact on the near term outlook. I think today will be proof of bullish strength and intent. We could see SPX above 940 before April ends and that would be very positive for the bullish case.
Click to expand...

So far things are looking GOOD.

I've brought more of my personal investments back in the water but the majority remains on dry land.

That's the biggest problem of being out of the game for 'too long'

Anyway if the Bull is not out - I think he's heading in the ring :D
 
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