Birchtree's Account Talk

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think the S&P will have been below 600 by 4th of July.

Currently, the SP500 futures is at 716 which 2.5% down from Friday's close.
At that rate, we'll be down to 600 by next Monday.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just wish you would stop welcoming pain. The market is reading this thread.

 

[Lobo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Currently, the SP500 futures is at 716 which 2.5% down from Friday's close.
At that rate, we'll be down to 600 by next Monday.

When we get to 600...I'm doing a reverse "panic" and stop holding the "G"....I'm gonna buy...buy....buy!!! At that point I will not mind trying to "catch a a falling knife"!

The hardest part of all this is continuing to be patient!!!

Lobo

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The way it's going, with slow steps down, it seems that the information at 600 will be the same or as conflicting as now. What information will drive you to conclude 500 is not probable?

 

[mojo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

When we get to 600...I'm doing a reverse "panic" and stop holding the "G"....I'm gonna buy...buy....buy!!! At that point I will not mind trying to "catch a a falling knife"!

The hardest part of all this is continuing to be patient!!!

Lobo

That seems like a good plan Lobo. I'm thinking along the same lines. If it gets much worse than 600 we will have other priorities than our TSP.

Take care

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Borrowing Birchtree's thread once more, here's a clip from Karl Denninger this morning:

From Chicago Business:

""There are companies out there faced with paying their pension plan or staying in business," says Mark Ugoretz, president and CEO of the ERISA Industry Committee, a Washington, D.C., lobbying group. ERISA refers to the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, which sets standards to ensure pension plans are sufficiently funded."
​

Still think I'm blowing smoke about 20% of the S&P 500 potentially going under on a move to 500 in the index, and half if the index collapses into the 300-400 range?
The math is never wrong, and our esteemed President Obama cannot escape the mathematics, no matter how "annointed" or "destined" he wishes to believe he is.

 

[Tempest]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just so you can't say you weren't warned.


This the last couple of months have been a financial watershed event-which in turn will become a historical societal event (Much like the Civil War, Great Depression and WWII). We have not EVEN begun to see how that will change how people handle personal finances, how we view investing and the role government plays in our lives.
As one commentaor put it-as much as we would like to think we are at 1933 with FDR just getting in the White House well guess again.
This is more like 1929.

I pride myself in being a realist -2 divorces, a near fatal auto accident and surviving cancer does kind of strip away all the extraneous b.s.

How anyone can call this a panic is delusional. (FWIW I'm still in 100% equities). All one needs to do is walk around and talk to family and friends or look at the local business climate which will give you more then enough antedotal evidence that 'Recession-Economic Downturn-Depression' or whatever it will be finally named is going to be with us a very -loooonggg time. Both you and I and people on this board haven't really felt it's effect yet. It will hit you, me and our children and grandchildren like a force of nature.

I stay in equities because I do have hope and would not want to live in any other country now or whatever happens in the future. What's the choice? The abyss?

But this downturn a result of a 'panic'
No.

bump

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
This is really TRUE !!

After Obama's speech they apparently had to give time for a Republician to come on and give his speech.

So I watch this guy walk down a hallway and into the room to give his speech. NOW I'D NEVER SEEN THIS GUY BEFORE and knew nothing about him. But it really stuck out the way he walked down the hall and into the room. During his speech I was more caught up in his mannerisms...facial expressions and stuff.

Well I thought about having a large 'get together' and paying you a hundred dollars to immitate him exactly as he did that night. The thought of you doing that make me laugh so hard and for some crazy reason it's a thought that seems to come back for entertainment - until it finally wears off.

SO - I'm just wondering - if I could send a tape of his speech would you be willing to earn $100 dollars ??


Oh BTW - NO PAIN.... NO GAIN

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I saw that speech - he is the Governor of Louisiana and will probably be our next Republican president in four years. He has like a 90% approval rating in Louisiana.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I saw that speech - he is the Governor of Louisiana and will probably be our next Republican president in four years. He has like a 90% approval rating in Louisiana.

Yeah, 60 Minutes had a good work up last night

He's pretty impressive - credentials and all

pretty wife and 3 kids to boot


BUT - my first impression was like WHOA... who the hell

I seriously doubt anyone will be able to beat Obama next go around and HONESTLY I'm not saying that as an Obama fan. I'm simply saying by the time this Horses*** finially ends and we're heading back on Solid Ground with what appears to be the strongest BULL Market to date - will be as his first term is coming to an end.

He came in at the worst possible time - so he's only going to look better and better...

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Barack Obama is probably calling Michael Jackson asking for his special formula. He has no experience and he has no plan other than social engineering and tax increases - his approval ratings will probably drop within the gentry liberal group.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

All that stuff is beyond me Birch - and it's the last game I want to get into. I would say a few mintues prior I was really shocked to see the following headline - and forgot to put the link - so for that split second I thought he might be down the tubes from my perspective.

It's CNN Money - but turns out it's $250 or better and not strickly 6 figures...

Obama's rude shock to six-figure earners

 

[Lobo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The way it's going, with slow steps down, it seems that the information at 600 will be the same or as conflicting as now. What information will drive you to conclude 500 is not probable?

That seems like a good plan Lobo. I'm thinking along the same lines. If it gets much worse than 600 we will have other priorities than our TSP.

Take care

That's the way I figure it....if it doesn't turn around at 600, or near, I won't be real worried if I have a TSP account or not....there will be much greater priorities and needs at that time. But, really, I'm an optimist....I "feel" we will turn around in time and we will gain from a bull market. But, ya gotta be in to gain. There'll be more "fear" in getting in on the way up than was seen in selling on the way down! And this much I know beyond a shadow of a doubt.....NOBODY "knows" what it's gonna do....period.

Lobo

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

..I "feel" we will turn around in time and we will gain from a bull market. But, ya gotta be in to gain. There'll be more "fear" in getting in on the way up than was seen in selling on the way down! And this much I know beyond a shadow of a doubt.....NOBODY "knows" what it's gonna do....period. Lobo

Just be careful that your not just making up for major losses until that time comes. Catch Up can be a Bee-ach :worried:

 

[Lobo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just be careful that your not just making up for major losses until that time comes. Catch Up can be a Bee-ach :worried:

You're right....like I said, there'll be a lot of "fear" in my head about getting in. I'll probably chicken out, even at 600, depending on what is going on at the time. I've been out mostly since Jan 08....made only 3.3% in '08.....and only about .5% so far this year with F & G, so, I've luckily not suffered the big loses of so many unfortunate ones. My general "theory" is to wait until I see a solid bull, which may be after it runs 50% of it's course...but, I'll take the last 50% or so and be happy. So, I'll probably not buy at 600, if it's on the way down....might, if it's on the way up. We'll see.

Lobo

 

[amoeba]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

When we get to 600...I'm doing a reverse "panic" and stop holding the "G"....I'm gonna buy...buy....buy!!! At that point I will not mind trying to "catch a a falling knife"!

The hardest part of all this is continuing to be patient!!!

Lobo

this friday (or next week)?

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

this friday (or next week)?

Today the S&P lost 34.2
At that rate, it will be this Thursday at 3:15PM ET.

 

[justbizness45]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We just offered 900 million to the Palestinians? We are in a major financial crisis and we are sending 900 mil overseas? WTF?? Hillary's quote:

"By providing humanitarian assistance to Gaza, we also aim to foster conditions in which a Palestinian state can be fully realized."

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/03/02/mideast.clinton/index.html?eref=rss_world

What the heck are they thinking?

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's a down payment on the $3B they asked for. The administration increased the foreign aid amount in the new budget. I don't know if this amount was included or is another emergency addition.

Remember, every dollar the nation borrows is just adding to the interest-only loan we're continuing to float. Principal is never to be repaid so the payment is lower.:worried:

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
I swear I think it must be 'a man thing'

.......which the women would probably classify as a stupid thing

BUT when the BEAR came glaring it's teeth I jumped in and said...

GIVE ME YOUR BEST.........HIT ME AS HARD AS YOU CAN



It may sound strange... but YOU'VE GOT TO BE IN TO WIN..

so I'll probably stick around for a little while and just laugh it off

See Birch it's like this:

I'm cool...........You're cool.......We're all cool