Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I raised some preemptive cash today by selling half my position in AZZ and liquidated my position in RKT. I'm doing this as a sacrifice to have cash above my dividends so I can do some buying on these lows. I'm dealing with my greed factor while everyone else is dealing with fear. That's what makes a market. These low prices are just too difficult to take a pass on - and since I'm basically an accumulator I will try and take opportunity of the present situation. I see alot of potential and not disaster on the horizon.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

A caller on the Cramer show called in stating that he was a follower of the work done by smokin Joe Granville whom I have also followed in years past. This caller mentioned that he still follows the techniques smokin Joe introduced (technical analysis) and he said that today's close signaled a massive buy signal - I'll go for that. Gosh that would be sweet.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yup this is beginning to feel like October's 2002 bottom. We are a lot closer to the ultimate bottom now than we were 1000 points ago. Just suspend mark to market accounting for two years and away we go. I'm ready to start doing some buying again - only had five dividend reinvestments hit the account today so I need to hurry this accumulation fetish I have along to a faster pace. Tomorrow could be a zoomer because no one is bullish - did I see 70% bears in a sentiment survey. I'll actually settle for tracking sideways for the rest of the month and then we rally for six months before the next retest which would equate to March 2003. And you know what happened after that final triple bottom - an essentially nonstop rally of 3,000 points. Because we will be starting from a lower point I could wish for 6,000 points in the same amount of time.

 

[GGal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, I know you will say I am crazy, but I have to confess, I bought ABCB today....just couldn't resist, it was so cheap.

I am thinking about some ATHN, what do you think.

GGAL

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

GGal,

You'll look back in a year and wonder why you didn't buy more of Ameris Bancorp - I actually had to check my account to see if I also owned it - but with a current dividend rate of 5.46% I wish I did. Allow those dividends to reinvest and you could conceivably have an excellent ten year holding - it's a perfect contrarian play. I hope you get some water over the summer. I'd be careful of the ATHN at this point unless you just have to own it - I'd dollar cost average my way in. Nobama is going to give health care trouble with cost containment measures and cost reductions. Jimmy Carter tried to do the same thing and the industry survived to thrive - they always find a way.

 

[Rod]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

GGal,

I'd be careful of the ATHN at this point unless you just have to own it - I'd dollar cost average my way in. Nobama is going to give health care trouble with cost containment measures and cost reductions. Jimmy Carter tried to do the same thing and the industry survived to thrive - they always find a way.

Wise advice.

 

[GGal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

what about the fact that ATHN provides medical management software, and the new bill has a huge chunk designated to subsidize just that?

Oh, don't worry...I bought ABCB last week or so ago at $6, then today at $4.....now that I have your blessing, I will continue to buy more....

I noted on SEC.gov, looking at the forms 4 filed over the last couple months, there has been a good bit of insider buying of ABCB....which is encouraging. Also, I have confidence that they are a strong bank and a well run bank.

Just hope Hopebama doesn't nationalize banks....I heard one of his dedicated followers today say just that, that he "should and will" nationalize banks.



thanks
GGAL

 

[amoeba]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"This is the contradiction investors face. It is one of the hardest things an investor must deal with: Your stock portfolio is getting killed; the media are filled with countless pieces suggesting that things will most likely continue to get worse. During such times, I think many small investors should take some risk off the table. Yet, in the past, such times have proven to be among the best times to increase, rather than decrease, your allocation to stocks. While market timing rarely produces good results beyond mere lucky guesses approximately half the time, huge benefits can be realized no matter what your overall percentage allocation to stocks, by establishing a position in or adding to those categories that are the most likely to do well under the current set of circumstances."

http://safehaven.com/article-12736.htm

"those categories" being bear fund ETF's; not an option in TSP, unfortunately.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The Dow has dropped 54% since its high of 14,279.96 on Oct. 11, 2007, to its low point of 6594.44. Back on September 3, 1929, the Dow hit a high mark of 381.17. And over a similar length of time, it fell 54.7% to 172.36 on January 2, 1931. If the Dow continues to follow the rate of decline that it endured during the Great Depression, investors would have another year and four months before hitting rock bottom. Back in July 1932, the Dow fell 89% to 42.22 from its high."

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-10185559-92.html

 

[GGal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I don't know why we would/should expect this thing to play out like the Great Depression. After all, it's a different world, entirely.

Big differences: global economy and high technology, not to mention far more sophisticated knowledge base.

That was then, and this is now.

GGAL

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I don't know why we would/should expect this thing to play out like the Great Depression. After all, it's a different world, entirely.

Big differences: global economy and high technology, not to mention far more sophisticated knowledge base.

That was then, and this is now.

GGAL

GGal, I personally don't think we are heading for Great Depression II... However, not for reasons you mention. The economy was as globalized pre-WWI as it is now (apparently). Electricity and motor vehicles were tremendous advances in technology. And, regretfully, I think our vaunted money changers were so sophisticated they rebuilt the failed systems of the late 1990s (ie. Long Term Capital misManagement).

Anyway, we will see soon. If my IFT actually takes hold (should happen tonight) I will be 10% more invested in Great Depression II:nuts:

 

[Boghie]

Sure Looks Like Capitulation to Me...

BirchTree,

I've only been an investor since 1996. Uuuggggghhhhh.... Sat around for almost a decade with only the automatic Federal contribution going into my TSP. I do think my command should have almost forced me to go to some financial management courses. It took President Clinton's tax increase occurring literally the same month as a big promotion to kick me in the bullocks. I mean, I was mad... I should have seen a $150 - $200 / pay check increase, but instead lost $40. Oh, that’s right, I guess I was the millionaire next door - in my apartment with a paid for 1990 Ford Probe in the parking lot

Back to my question:

Reading posts on this Message Board I can’t find anybody who is positive. Is this capitulation? Never seen anything so negative.

 

[justbizness45]

Re: Sure Looks Like Capitulation to Me...

Reading posts on this Message Board I can’t find anybody who is positive. Is this capitulation? Never seen anything so negative.

The sentiment tracker is 65% Bears, 29% Bulls, that should be a bullish reading for Tom's blog tomorrow. It is one indicator that is bullish. There are a few others out there also. I however, am not smelling manure yet, but I think it is close.

 

[justbizness45]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, the time may be coming when either you get to say "I told you so" to everyone that has doubted your B&H strategy or you are going to say "Oh SH@@!!". I sincerely hope it's the former, because if it's the latter our accounts aren't going to matter anyway. That's why I am thinking about a slow DCA into the market to hedge against the "I told you so". C @ $7.93 & S @ $9.13 is getting really hard to resist.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

IMHO capitulation has aready occurred last fall, we are now experiencing sellers exhaustion. Sentiment is the clearest indication of why investors fail to keep the gains they make in bull markets. It has them buying more heavily at market tops and selling in despair near market bottoms. In its October 22 review, Investors Intelligence reported that 54.4% of newsletters were in the bearish camp and that has now increased, the most since December 1994 when the 1990s bull market was about to accelerate to the upside in a big way. Look at the graph Tom displayed today - 1995 was a joyous ride with hardly any type of corrections. We could easily experience the same parabolic ride this time around real soon. Now that deserves a snort. Cyclical bulls are born deep in despair when most investors have given up hope of stocks ever rising again. If virtually everyone is bearish and pessimistic, and almost everyone is discounting Armageddon, shouldn't I fight the crowd and be bullish? It sure feels like that right now. Snort.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, the time may be coming when either you get to say "I told you so" to everyone that has doubted your B&H strategy or you are going to say "Oh SH@@!!". I sincerely hope it's the former, because if it's the latter our accounts aren't going to matter anyway.

The thing that worries me is hyper-inflation. If that happens, having $6 million in our account isn't going to matter.

 

[Boghie]

On the Other Hand - I think I'll become an Economist

BirchTree,

The only problem is that we have an Obama Administration rather than the Bush Administration.

Obama's instincts are awful, not marginal. He thinks he is FDR II, so far he is closer to Jimmy Carter II :nuts: He could EASILY drive us into a Carteresque stagflation – hard to do, but Carter did it. We could easily head off into a four/eight year recovery that is completely flat.

If Dirty Barry becomes a caricature of Jimmy the world will know it QUICK. Just this week the goober without moves challenged a man with two oil barrels of ink (actually air waves, but…) standing over his head. So, my guess is the damage from this failed Presidency will be slight.

Anyway, while not All In ya got to be movin’ in.

Hope. ..

Change...

 

[amoeba]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's not capitulation to me - because the volumes and volatility index have not risen to any significant level during this most recent decline. If volume and volatility spikes, and the selloff reaches double digits, minus 10-20% in a day, now that may be capitulation. This is not that.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Can this slowly building positive event reach a critical mass? Is there a pent up demand brewing of investors who want to become BUYERS?"

http://safehaven.com-12755.htm

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Can this slowly building positive event reach a critical mass? Is there a pent up demand brewing of investors who want to become BUYERS?"

http://safehaven.com-12755.htm

Birch,
When I declared the MARKET BOTTOM upon my recent entry in the Markets ... it FELT LIKE A BOTTOM ....

.....but I was thinking Short Term

....this is FIRST TIME ... LONG TERM is feeling better and better...

We'll see how it goes - but I'm in no hurry to get out