Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yesterday there was an article by MarK Hulbert regarding the contrary significance of buy and hold strategies. He was saying that when buy and hold is declared dead by newsletter writers that means the bottom is close. He has done several studies over several bear markets. There is also an article today by Mark Hulbert discussing capitulation and the VIX. There is also an article about whether or not house pricing is begining to stabilize.

http:www.marketwatch.com

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Could the intraday low of 6718 for the DJIA be the ultimate low? That would be perfect for my investment program. Two hours left to go so we'll see what happens.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I thought the DJTA was still heading down. Don't you need that to be level or up?

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
The SPX hit 695 today - not once
...................................not twice
...................................but THREE TIMES

WHY IS THAT???

Because the BEAR can only go so far DOWN - and that 's the bottom line.

So know this - when I do go in I'm BULLISH as you can get and right now everything is completely setting those IN for a BIG WIN.

So I leave today VERY GRATEFUL for getting in when I did - and hey I missed by a day - but that's way better than missing what's to come.

Just remember Birch - the BULL never sleeps and when his time comes hell will break loose

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The Dow's current decline of 23.21% is by far the worst start to a year for the index this many days (41) in since 1900. One positive is that 1933 is one of the five years that started off down 10% this many trading days in. While this did occur during the Great Depression. it was also FDR's first year in office. With many comparing Obama and his plans to FDR and the New Deal, it's interesting that the market got off to a very bad start in 1933 after he was elected, but reversed when he took office in March and finished his first year 66.7% higher".

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Interestingly, Bob Farrell, retired Merill Lynch strategist, said that many market bottoms have been made when the major indices have violated previously "well-advertised" lows. He called such occurrencies "undercut lows" and thought they had a pretty good chance of holding most of the time". He did miss the first four months of the August 1982 rally but Birchtree was there pulling in the dollars.

"On the stock market, Jeremy Grantham draws comparisons to 1974 and 1982, when the S&P 500 lost roughly half its value - (currently down 54%). Since he estimates the current S&P fair value at 900, Grantham puts his worst-case bottom at a hair-raising 45o. Still, he is on a strict, slow (Birchtree) schedule to invest as valuations dip even lower. If you do not have a schedule for investing, you will not do it. When the market goes down, it reinforces the hoarding of cash. By the bottom, you suffer what we called in 1974 terminal paralysis - you cannot pull the trigger. (Birchtree was investing in 1974 and never had paralysis because he didn't have any money). Almost everyone who avoids the great pain is very slow to get back."

http://safehaven.com/article-12717.htm

 

[Boghie]

Pullin' the Trigger...

BirchTree,

You are 100% correct. This market has whacked me on the noggin so hard, so many times I can't even find the trigger. Kinda like a Grateful Dead Dope Head in the middle of a concert. I haven't even traded hard enough in it to get bruised – but watching (and still losing) has got me all wanked out. I think it is a mental thing :nuts:

I will probably (God, give me a break - probably) start DCAing G/F assets into C/S tomorrow. Maybe 10% every two weeks. That should give me a bit of return when the bounce bangs but still let me sleep at night. So, it will take me three months to get to my normal allocation. So, that means an economic recovery in 9 – 12 months if the market looks 6 months into the future.

Later

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My oceanic account caught 6 dividend reinvestments on Monday and another 14 yesterday - that's a salve to sooth my dribble hemorrhage. It's money going in on the bottom and that's the strategy. There will be dividends paid most days for the rest of the month. The weak hands continue to unload on their fear and eventually they will be exhausted. There has always been a correlation between the size of market recovery and depth of the downturn during a recession. I want my Mapo.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Dennis - PERMABULL #1

There is no one on this MB more deserving of this tittle

I go with my gut Birch - and that is warming up from the pit of my stomach up to my heart and now I'm feeling it all over


I'd say WE ARE NOW IN A BULL MARKET

This is not a 1 or 2 day thing.... this will play out long enough to call it a BULL


So I'm more than content to stay in place and ride it to the TOP

 

[Boghie]

The gods Must be Crazy...

BirchTree and Steady...

I can't seem to get out of my own way. Absolutely promised to make a major move (10% - yuk, yuk) today, but instead get stuck on our computer centers help desk when there was nobody there to staff it... Then I get sent to the doctor and out the door after sitting in the doctors office for hours.

I won't make the move (and, now it might be bigger) till Friday because I don't want to go through the Quicken nightmare of mixing an IFT with payroll contributions.

You guys got a big chunck back today. Congrats

I don't know if this is a bull market, but it is time to reinvest via DCA...

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I dumped $772K into the market while we were botoming last fall - and in February and March everyone of those dollars were working against me. If we suspend mark to market accounting please stand back so no one gets hurt during the bullish stampede because it's coming and soon. When $9.35 trillion tries to get through a vent hole who knows what will happen. I won't be chasing the bull but rather running in the front lane.

 

[poolman]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I dumped $772K into the market while we were botoming last fall - and in February and March everyone of those dollars were working against me. If we suspend mark to market accounting please stand back so no one gets hurt during the bullish stampede because it's coming and soon. When $9.35 trillion tries to get through a vent hole who knows what will happen. I won't be chasing the bull but rather running in the front lane.

I'm in to the tune of 380K.

 

[wwwtractor]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I know what the market does. It is called Brownian Motion. Research it.

 

[felixthecat]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This market finally has some fresh legs. I'm a short term bull here...snort. I don't usually snort but Birch knows that we are entering a bear rally.

Will probably change my avatar to angel if market consolidates or even rallys Thursday.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I prefer to think in terms of the Venturi Effect - thankyou.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

felix,

I wouldn't be so sure about that bear market rally - that's what the bull wants you to think. This could easily be the beginning of something with endurance - anyway I'm always in for the ride as a cycle rider.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"This is the contradiction investors face. It is one of the hardest things an investor must deal with: Your stock portfolio is getting killed; the media are filled with countless pieces suggesting that things will most likely continue to get worse. During such times, I think many small investors should take some risk off the table. Yet, in the past, such times have proven to be among the best times to increase, rather than decrease, your allocation to stocks. While market timing rarely produces good results beyond mere lucky guesses approximately half the time, huge benefits can be realized no matter what your overall percentage allocation to stocks, by establishing a position in or adding to those categories that are the most likely to do well under the current set of circumstances."

http://safehaven.com/article-12736.htm

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If we suspend mark to market accounting please stand back so no one gets hurt during the bullish stampede because it's coming and soon. When $9.35 trillion tries to get through a vent hole who knows what will happen. I won't be chasing the bull but rather running in the front lane.

"Don't count your tadpoles until they hatch" Kermit the frog

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

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[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

No momentum for stocks
Mar 5: 4:27a