Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
"Transitions from bear markets to bull markets."

http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/ciovacco/2008/1104.html
Click to expand...

I always take a chance of getting slapped around for having such a short
sided view in a long sided thread. But I'm finding the mixture quite exciting
and I'm taking it all in. It won't go to waste.

The article you posted is exactly what I need to keep the big picture in
mind. I only screened it, but I will spend the time (no dought) to read and
learn everything it has to offer. Thanks so much.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Not much activity today - trying to recover from my depression. I hope our second black president does better than our first black president - I'll keep my fingers crossed. I did purchase 6 individual stocks today for a total now of 282. I'm out enjoying my yard.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I never talk about yellow back Jimmy in a positive light. I was referring to Billy boy.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch,
Just noticed you're the Guru....


.........very cool man :cool::cool:....like make love and not war


...find the celestial thoughts and let them enfold you in enlightment
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

It is refreshing to see the market come to it's senses today after an absolutely irrational up day on Tuesday. It won't be long now before this bear takes another round of casualties. The bear market will end once everyone is broken, beaten and scarred. Or how about this, we will know when the bear market is at an end when Birch cries uncle! :-)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

You'll be waiting a long time because I never cry Uncle - I just keep on buying and accumulating my base along with a multitude of dividend reinvestments. Next year, about the time the recession is over, the market should be 40 or 50% higher than now. Today was a confirmation of our second black president - but he'll learn to move to the center. I did manage to pick up a few good prices today and tomorrow perhaps a few more to join the kitty pool. I've got another hundred or so thousand dollars to squander so let's put it to work.

"The S&P 500 lost 46% of its value from the October 2007 highs to the October 2008 lows. While the current bear market could continue for years, it could also be closer to its end than many are willing to even remotely concede." ibid ciovacco.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just noticed that I have been erroneously designated as a guru - listen folks I am by no stretch of the imagination a guru. I simply fly by the seat of my pants on most trips. By the time fundamental circumstances are actually good, the best of cyclical market moves may indeed be behind investors. I'm just your basic run of the mill rebel contrarian and I have the scars to prove it.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Corepuncher said:
It is refreshing to see the market come to it's senses today after an absolutely irrational up day on Tuesday. It won't be long now before this bear takes another round of casualties. The bear market will end once everyone is broken, beaten and scarred. Or how about this, we will know when the bear market is at an end when Birch cries uncle! :-)
Click to expand...

Yikes! That could be a very long time.

Let' see 500 points a day, yea 18 and 1/4 trading days and the DOW will hit the bottom!:D
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

This article and charts...give hope! I'll be glad to get in after missing the recent 850 low! Thanks!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The good folks at Morgan Stanley are recommending that clients start to buy shares again after more than a year of falling markets. Their market timing indicators are giving them a full house buy signal. Each of the four indicators - valuation, capitulation, risk, fundamentals - tells them to buy.

"Long-Term Opportunities Amidst the Fear".

http://www.lmcm.com/pdf/WherefromHere.pdf
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

" when share prices fall more rapidly than any change you perceive in business value, you should be looking to take advantage of that and buy. The best way to deal with a chaotic and unpredictable market is to own extremely undervalued stocks with strong balance sheets. Basically, price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him or her with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal. At other times he will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to his dividend returns and to the operating results of his companies."

http://www.tilsonfunds.com/UpsideoftheDownDow.pdf
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
" when share prices fall more rapidly than any change you perceive in business value, you should be looking to take advantage of that and buy. The best way to deal with a chaotic and unpredictable market is to own extremely undervalued stocks with strong balance sheets. Basically, price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him or her with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal. At other times he will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to his dividend returns and to the operating results of his companies."

http://www.tilsonfunds.com/UpsideoftheDownDow.pdf
Click to expand...
How do you find the time to keep up with the companies when you own sooo many stocks?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

He's buying. I'm wondering what he does when he's holding...
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

wv-girl,

A good many of my companies I've owned for many years and that provides the familiarity. I always enjoy reading their annual reports and I read TWSJ every day - well at least I try to. When I'm in a holding position I track my dividends and scout which beauty will be next to sacrifice for profit. I really don't like to sell unless there is a better opportunity to place the money with more delightful wall flowers. That's what happened this past summer when I sold some commodity stocks to reinvest into the toxic waste banks and other financials and recently I've been DCAing into these same positions only this time on the way up. Investing is always a dynamic exercise.
 
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