Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think I'll pop in today for a few select purchases. Perhaps I'll catch a $9 price tag on the C fund for Friday. It did hit $9.74 at the end of October one day too late - but this time I may get lucky.

 

[turbo23dog]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm trying to make sure I understand the mechanics of IFTs.

If you make an IFT today prior to 12:00 ET, your ITF buys at COB today closing price, right?

I ask because I'm planning to move maybe 20% out of G and into C tomorrow thinking that both today and tomorrow will down days.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Today is sell the rumor and tomorrow could be buy the news. I wouldn't count on tomorrow being a down day even with a bad jobs report.

 

[turbo23dog]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I hear you... I intended to make an IFT today but it was 12:04 when I sat down at the computer... so I'm doing wishfull thinking for tomorrow.

Today does look to be heading south in a big way but I'm reserving judgement till COB what with those 3:30-4:00pm swings we've seen over the last few weeks.

 

[Scout333]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, Have been thinking of buying into the "toxic financials" as you so aptly described them. There are a few out there that haven't committed to taking the TARP money from the bailout yet (CNB for example) but probably will at some point. Should get some boost when that is announced, at least Regions did. Sound reasonable?
Thanks,

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

At this point you could simply close your eyes and hold your nose and most of what you buy will be higher in a few years - I've planned my strategy at least that far out in time. I'm primarily going to let their dividends do most of my work and reinvest on auto-pilot. Today was an excellent day to pick up some golden pricing and I let it pass - tomorrow may provide an equal opportunity. Tomorrow I'll be looking to get back into some coal companies - they were nicely hammered down all day.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm still in the process of squandering money - just bought ten more positions for a total so far off this bottom of 292. Three of my buys today were in the coal sector: CNX, BTU, PCX. I've still got some more DCAing to do while I'm chasing this momentum.

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Today is sell the rumor and tomorrow could be buy the news. I wouldn't count on tomorrow being a down day even with a bad jobs report.

Wait for the finish Birch, if the news catches wind of any, and yes I coined this phrase: "Obaminations" we could see a huge sell off for the weekend. If GM posts any numbers, I think we'll be red tonight!

 

[turbo23dog]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I was waiting patiently at 11:55 to make a move into C but things were looking too up for the day so I stayed in place, 100% G.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just completed my last 8 purchases for the day for a grand total of 300 around this bottom with such golden prices. I'm not buying at this point in time for capital gains appreciation but rather accumulating shares for income from dividends that will be reinvested while we trend sideways in a basing transition from bear to bull. It's all good.

 

[Frozen]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just completed my last 8 purchases for the day for a grand total of 300 around this bottom with such golden prices. I'm not buying at this point in time for capital gains appreciation but rather accumulating shares for income from dividends that will be reinvested while we trend sideways in a basing transition from bear to bull. It's all good.

I have to wonder how you account for that many stocks with dividend reinvestments for your taxes. Do you use an accountant? IF not, I'm guessing you are retired in order to spend that amount of time on all this. I can barely find time to check on the market, let alone track stocks, buy and sell stocks, do the accounting, and post (hourly?) on the web.

 

[poolman]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I have to wonder how you account for that many stocks with dividend reinvestments for your taxes. Do you use an accountant? IF not, I'm guessing you are retired in order to spend that amount of time on all this. I can barely find time to check on the market, let alone track stocks, buy and sell stocks, do the accounting, and post (hourly?) on the web.

I only get to peak usually. I find all kinds of excuses to get to a computer if need be and other than that Wifey and I work as a team. She knows how to get into the Tracker and her TSP account.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Merrill Lynch tracks all my dividends for me and at the end of the year presents everything on a form that I just copy and present to the IRS - it's really easy. The hard part is listing the sell transactions on schedule D. I work on my taxes about only 2 hours at a time so it usually can take me about two weeks. I know where I can hide money and where I can't - that can get difficult with all the 1099s. I've always done my own forms because I know best where all the money is resting. You need a job where you rotate shifts and work a few nights and weekends.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"With endless bearish arguments out there, many very logical and plausible, it is easy to surrender to the pessimism and capitulate. But if you are a contrarian, somewhere deep in your brain nagging doubts are gnawing away. If virtually everyone is bearish and pessimistic, and almost everyone is discounting Armageddon, shouldn't I fight the crowd and be bullish? While most naive investors are crushed in these secular bears, prudent investors can thrive. By buying aggressively late in bears when people are disgusted with stocks, contrarian traders can make a fortune in the inevitable subsequent cyclical bulls. Cyclical bulls are born deep in despair when most investors and speculators have given up hope of stocks ever rising again. It sure feels like that today."

http://www.safehaven.com/article-11775.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Frozen,

I still have about 40 more indiscriminate purchases to make before my buy program is complete. I'm simply DCAing into previously owned positions and picking up a few new wall flowers as I proceed. I was prescient enough to have $500K in cash reserves knowing that sooner or later the blind side would hit me dead on target. I have refused to do any forced selling in all this chaos and am buying instead for the next bull cycle - my gains will come quickly because all my original assets are still intact. Once the bull returns I'll selectively buy certain winners on the upside. Last year I made 19 sales and had 522 individual purchases so you can suspect that my oceanic is substantial - this is serious business. And when you've been doing it as long as I have you can decide what is important and what is chaff.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"As we look back across historical experience, in those instances where equity markets have broken the 200 month MA to the downside, this has been accopanied by very somber real world economic outcomes. The multi-decade bear market in Japanese equities will be over when the Nikkei sustainably trades above its 200 month MA. In summation, a very meaningful technical demarcation line for equities in important bear episodes is the 200 month MA. And it takes one mean bear market environment to get there. It has been very rare to see the S&P within roughly 20% of its 200 month MA."

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/pretti/2008/0801.html

"As we stated in the August discussion, failure to find support at the 200 month MA may indeed be quite the fundamental and technical warning sign...we are also watching the largest macro 'margin call' over a compressed period of time in global financial markets we're probably ever going to see in our lifetimes. The magnitude of leveraged positions that still need to be liquidated ahead, the rate at which this liquidation will occur, and the time required until the conclusion of this credit cycle reconciliation process oplays out are all unknowns. Every major US equity index reached and exceeded their respective 200 month moving averages to the downside in October."

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm Pretti, Friday 11/7

 

[robo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"As we look back across historical experience, in those instances where equity markets have broken the 200 month MA to the downside, this has been accopanied by very somber real world economic outcomes. The multi-decade bear market in Japanese equities will be over when the Nikkei sustainably trades above its 200 month MA. In summation, a very meaningful technical demarcation line for equities in important bear episodes is the 200 month MA. And it takes one mean bear market environment to get there. It has been very rare to see the S&P within roughly 20% of its 200 month MA."

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/pretti/2008/0801.html

"As we stated in the August discussion, failure to find support at the 200 month MA may indeed be quite the fundamental and technical warning sign...we are also watching the largest macro 'margin call' over a compressed period of time in global financial markets we're probably ever going to see in our lifetimes. The magnitude of leveraged positions that still need to be liquidated ahead, the rate at which this liquidation will occur, and the time required until the conclusion of this credit cycle reconciliation process oplays out are all unknowns. Every major US equity index reached and exceeded their respective 200 month moving averages to the downside in October."

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm Pretti, Friday 11/7

Birchtree,

They will play games again next week, but maybe we can get a rally in the S&P back up to the 1000 level again in the next couple of weeks. Keep spreading the manure..... We continue to pound out a bottom! Higher lows....

Robo




"The NYSE has now had two better than 9 to 1 up vs. down volume day surges over the past several weeks. Such volume surges are unusual, and when they occur twice within three months, typically mark the beginning of a new major advance."

"The second volume surge day, last Monday October 28th, was also accompanied by one of the highest total volume days in NYSE history. This also is an important ingredient in a successful bottom."

 

[mick504]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree....I might have missed it but regarding the TSP are you currently in the S&P or the G fund? If you don't mind!!

 

[Rod]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree....I might have missed it but regarding the TSP are you currently in the S&P or the G fund? If you don't mind!!

You can see where he, and everyone else is, by looking here:

http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_balance_all.php

 

[mick504]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I missed out of the S&P 840 low and want to get back into C hopefully in the next week...thought the 240K jobs report loss would do it but it didn't go down but up. Maybe next week!!