Birchtree's Account Talk

[FUTURESTRADER]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

[BI'd say these are just "crappy conditions" we have to deal with for a little while and that the correction is largely over.

]

it would appear the weekly chart agrees with you, steady

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Global growth is downshifting and the cyclical economic backdrop is no longer supportive of further commodity price gains. Bottom line: Prices are set to correct further and the inflation scare should retreat along with expectations for rate hikes."

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com Food and energy prices: A prolonged correction underway.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My ELN (Elan) position is being slammed again after hours - so I'll be a buyer tomorrow doubling down again now at $12.20 down another $7.48. Just think I could have bought Imclone at $12 last year - it's going out at $63 on a buy out. Rally time again tomorrow.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree,
I'm glad you're hanging on a little longer and taking advantage of the great job and all the perks.

Of couse you know I can't help but think about you - especially since you turned 70 and will likely retire in the near future.

But the next 15 years are going to be your very best. You will likely have a very sharp mind and remain in fairly good health throughout these years. Even if you live to 100 - after 85 things will take a turn and it will be hard to do the things you could have done before.

Well Birch - I really want the next 15 to go great. You've got plenty for your daughter and her future family (plus she and her husband are no slackers - and they'll do fine). So get out there and enjoy yourself Birch - see some of the beautiful places scattered throughout this planet and have some fun - soak it in and really make the most possible out of the next 15. Make that your goal.

My folks are in a Retirement Home (a really nice one) and there are quite a few even nicer - plan for that down the line. PLEASE! It's OK to retire as long as you remain active and all the more have things to look forward to.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just turned 61 not close to 70 yet. I plan to purchase a summer get away in the North Carolina Blue Ridge mountains and keep my Florida home as a winter retreat rather than selling. I plan to be active enough on Lake Glenville or I may purchase a place for permanent residence on Lake Keowee in northern South Carolina. Once I throw in the towel I'll have to wait on the wife to finish her career and in the meantime I'm planning for the golden years with the money we both have accumulated. I have a pharmacist friend that I manage funds for that is currently building a place in Blairsville in North Georgia - he is renting his Florida home to his daughter. I talked to him yesterday and he informed me he wished he was still working so he could continue to dollar cost average into his retirement program while prices are so golden and he is 70 years old.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just turned 61 not close to 70 yet.

Wow - thank you - man, I was kind of concerned because I fully planned on letting you take charge of my money in about another 10 years...and I got a little leary.


That's wonderful - and I have no idea where I got 70 - but thanks.

Good Night to all - heading out.... Roger..10/4.. Over and Out.

 

[Braveheart]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just turned 61 not close to 70 yet. I plan to purchase a summer get away in the North Carolina Blue Ridge mountains and keep my Florida home as a winter retreat rather than selling. I plan to be active enough on Lake Glenville or I may purchase a place for permanent residence on Lake Keowee in northern South Carolina. Once I throw in the towel I'll have to wait on the wife to finish her career and in the meantime I'm planning for the golden years with the money we both have accumulated. I have a pharmacist friend that I manage funds for that is currently building a place in Blairsville in North Georgia - he is renting his Florida home to his daughter. I talked to him yesterday and he informed me he wished he was still working so he could continue to dollar cost average into his retirement program while prices are so golden and he is 70 years old.

Older & wiser well I read your posts take them all in and now I have changed I am stubborn and won't leave the S Fund until it sees $19.00+ I would do an IFT only if it is above $18.40 in an emergency.

I think next week the Fed will do their same B.S. talk but maybe they increase rates for the dollar. Yes we have a housing crisis and that has led to a financial crisis which has led to a job crisis so now is the time what will another 2 months do anyway. That would put a dent in Oil and those who were going to lose their homes are still going to lose them so what's the point. IMO.........What are your thoughts on this - Braveheart

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If you have years in front of you to continue working the current market environment is actually an opportunity to DCA shares at lower prices. All corrections eventually will pass and optimism will return. I've been buying the C fund on a disciplined basis for years and I'd much rather pay today's prices than buy in the $17.00 range. The Fed would like to lower rates I think one more time but will wait until the price of oil drops further so that inflation remains contained. The Euroland central banks realize their economies are slowing and their currency is overpriced hurting their exports. They will quietly start a concerted effort to buy dollars - it was in 2000 that we were buying euros around $0.82 to help provide strength for that currency - so now the reverse will be true. Once the Fed sees a stronger dollar they will have less restraint and can safely lower rates to help the credit crisis and our option arm adjustable rate mortgages. Lower rates will eventually force money out of money market funds because of the yield shortage and into equities. Let me tell you a story about an incident that happened to me two months ago regarding credit availability. I had a Chase card that had a $25,000 credit line and I owed only $2,700 on this thing. Well I missed a payment because I never received a statement and the powers in charge decided to punish me by dropping my credit line to $7,500. So what did I do - I paid these fools off and told them they would not receive anymore business from me unless they restored my initial credit line. Can you guess what happened next? They sent me a letter saying that because I was such a good outstanding client that they were restoring my credit line back to $25,000. I guess a little income is better than none. Now I'm waiting for them to send me a reduced rate for balance transfers of around 3.99% before I access the balance to buy stock. Snort.

 

[Braveheart]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If you have years in front of you to continue working the current market environment is actually an opportunity to DCA shares at lower prices. All corrections eventually will pass and optimism will return. I've been buying the C fund on a disciplined basis for years and I'd much rather pay today's prices than buy in the $17.00 range. The Fed would like to lower rates I think one more time but will wait until the price of oil drops further so that inflation remains contained. The Euroland central banks realize their economies are slowing and their currency is overpriced hurting their exports. They will quietly start a concerted effort to buy dollars - it was in 2000 that we were buying euros around $0.82 to help provide strength for that currency - so now the reverse will be true. Once the Fed sees a stronger dollar they will have less restraint and can safely lower rates to help the credit crisis and our option arm adjustable rate mortgages. Lower rates will eventually force money out of money market funds because of the yield shortage and into equities. Let me tell you a story about an incident that happened to me two months ago regarding credit availability. I had a Chase card that had a $25,000 credit line and I owed only $2,700 on this thing. Well I missed a payment because I never received a statement and the powers in charge decided to punish me by dropping my credit line to $7,500. So what did I do - I paid these fools off and told them they would not receive anymore business from me unless they restored my initial credit line. Can you guess what happened next? They sent me a letter saying that because I was such a good outstanding client that they were restoring my credit line back to $25,000. I guess a little income is better than none. Now I'm waiting for them to send me a reduced rate for balance transfers of around 3.99% before I access the balance to buy stock. Snort.

I heard American Express did that recently to someone I know. I will have to ask them what they did but good for you these leaches are unreal. Soon there will be a lower limit on everyone. I always pay online and right away especially now.

I am hoping next week we get a good start but now Iraq is starting their crap again. I think McCain should run a new ad saying if I am elected I will open all our oil reserves until we have none maybe then Congress will vote on offshore drilling. Obama may have all the $$ but you can not buy votes and the Democrats are in for a big shock when the chosen one loses a can't miss election. McCain scares me but I think Obama would make Jimmy Cartet look like a great president. Maybe there is Oil in those other 7 states since Obama thinks we have 57. He is making Harvard proud Ha Ha..........

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This is something cute from the print edition of TWSJ 8/02/08 by Susan Davis.

"The night Sen. Obama clinched the Demcratic nomination, June 3, Sen. McCain said: "I don't seek the presidency on the presumption I'm blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save my country in its hour of need. I seek the office with humility of a man who cannot forget my country saved me." If Sen. McCain was suggesting then that Sen. Obama was casting himself as God-like, the campaign is making it crystal clear now. In its latest Web video released Friday, the McCain campaign compared Sen. Obama with the Almighty.
"It shall be known, that in 2008, the world will be blessed. They will call him The One," opens the one minute video.
"Can you see the light?" the video asks, before it cuts to a clip of Sen. Obama saying, "A light will shine down from somewhere. It will light upon you. You will experience an epiphany, and you will say to yourself, 'I have to vote for Barack.' "
Not me by any sense of the imagination - Jesse Jackson had it right on.

 

[XL-entLady]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

....you will say to yourself, 'I have to vote for Barack.' " Not me by any sense of the imagination - Jesse Jackson had it right on.

I have formed my opinion based on in-depth research of the candidates' stances on the issues important to me, rather than on incomplete snippets of sounds bites taken out of context, or on public figures who are angry at being removed from the limelight as well as for being taken to task for their private lives.

But this world would be a very boring place if everyone had exactly the same opinions, wouldn't it!

Have a good weekend,
Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, my humble and public apology. I regretted that last post from the minute I pushed the send button.

I have very strong opinions about the presidential campaign, but I should not have cluttered up your thread with them. I'm sorry for bring dis-harmony to your MB home.

Lady

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

No problem - I simply fear the Donkey. The silent majority will prevail. There is a big rush on for voter registration - remember motor voter registration the last time around. The buses are all greased to deliver the constitutency but the males are mostly in jail and they have no voter rights as of yet. The Donkey thinks they will have the inexperienced adolescent vote but the majority of them won't get out of bed in time to vote. Those that have received their racial innocense will number insignificantly. I didn't get my stimulus check this time around and probably won't get the next one either. McCain is the man, if anyone can do it he can.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Point blank and germane to the current market environment, IF the S&P were to come 20% or less away from its' 200 month MA (which currently stands at 982, but is moving higher every month) anywhere ahead in the current cycle, we'd have to think long and hard about a potential full court press in terms of risk management. Of course the very important issue of the moment is our present circumstance. NEVER since the early 1980's have we even been near the zero line for this indicator. Even the equity market lows of 2002/2003, this 10 year moving average rested near 100%. But as of right now, the number is approaimately 14%. So as we move ahead in our present circumstance, we suggest using the 10 year moving average of S&P price in conjunction with the relationship between the S&P and its 200 month moving average to perhaps signal us as to levels of true generational risk in both the financial markets and real economy. Luck favors the prepared.

http://financialsense.com by Brian Pretti for Friday 8/01/08

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Another site with the same article: http://safehaven.com/article-10883.htm

 

[XL-entLady]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

".... this 10 year moving average rested near 100%. But as of right now, the number is approaimately 14%. So as we move ahead in our present circumstance, we suggest using the 10 year moving average of S&P price in conjunction with the relationship between the S&P and its 200 month moving average to perhaps signal us as to levels of true generational risk in both the financial markets and real economy. Luck favors the prepared.

http://financialsense.com by Brian Pretti for Friday 8/01/08

I found that article to be interesting as well:

"...this 10 year moving average rested near 100%. But as of right now, the number is approximately 14%. Without reaching for melodrama, it will not take much nominal dollar downside from here to push this into negative territory. If that indeed comes to pass, it would be yet another indicator of important historical magnitude suggesting we batten down the hatches in generational fashion." [direct quote, with emphasis added]

Lady

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

No problem - I simply fear the Donkey.

Birchtree,
This weekend I'm finding the ultimate answer is simply leaving it in God's hands and allowing myself to honestly believe in that Power. I am finding a peace that is very comforting. I know you don't practice an organized religion but you don't need that to put your trust in God. Zoroastrianism's teachings of good and evil, free will, final judgement, heaven and hell, one almighty God - have influenced many religions, including the 3 main faiths of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. So I don't know that there's a real advantage being involved in something. I guess to me the main thing is having a personal faith that can come to life and take control. Anyway for a subject of the magnitude currently at hand - let alone something like "Obama becoming President" If that happens???- this is where all of us are better off finding and believing in something bigger than ourselves - something that can sustain us no matter what befalls us.

We are way better off being grounded in something that can carry us through anything regardless of what happens - than focusing on the what ifs.

It does appear to be a significant article -kind of surprised it's not drawing more attention - but whatever will be - will be and I don't see the inevitable economic collapse happening now; on the contrary I believe things will get better.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Pardon my French but everything in the market is now in sync - we may be looking at the most important rally of the last 5 years and coming off a 9 month low to boot and perhaps with the first quadrant to the upside of an extended 4 year cycle low. The power should be impressive. Back to back triple point Dow up days would fit nicely. We've just experienced the bottom (July 15th) of a correctional phase within a longer term bull. The bottom line is that everything is now in place for a true center point 3rd wave to the upside. This will probably turn out to be the biggest bear trap in history, and for most, they won't acknowledge this until much later when the majority of the advance is nearing completion. With 18 billion shares short it may take years to cover. This breakout is supported by a nice base that probably won't be tested for years. Snort.

 

[Buster]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If you don't mind..this tribute

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

ROFLMAO! I hope you are right, so sit tight. Not me!