Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Article by Peter Brimelow - Battered permabull concedes to bears, sort of.
"But Don R. Hays still sticks to his Wall Street triumphalism. What Hays expects is an alarming thing he calls a "three-pronged bottom". From June 2002 until March 2003 we went through an agonizing nine-month evolution as the worst bear market in 30 years was evolving to an end. On each of those three troughs of that evolution the volume decreased and fewer and fewer stocks made new lows. But when you looked at your bottom line, the value of the overall "average" portfolio dropped to its lowest level on the last panic decline in March 2003. It didn't help you to know that fewer of the stocks in your portfolio were actually making new lows, since the bottom-line devastation was so severe. This is a common trend, so why isn't it easier to understand?....but the big rally in financials...and the rally in the dollar are cheering for a major bottom."

http://www.marketwatch.com

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

And I'm doing the same thing now that I did back then - trying to buy myself into happiness with many golden prices. The portfolio dividends are working overtime to catch these sweet prices - the more shares bought the larger the dividend on the next payout - and we just keep feeding the oceanic. We are mostly on auto-pilot accept for my select buying. I've made 150 purchases and am apparently not finished yet - got to have some more financials and housing material and building stocks - just thinking about my future and those insufferable grand kids. I need to find out if Bob Brinker has cut and run - I wouldn't think so.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just finished buying: GDI, MER, MLI, STI. I took a nice hit to the gut yesterday and hopefully will get a majority of it back today. I've got six more buys to make after I mow the lawn today.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I have a personal question. As you're emptying the dishwasher, after the drying cycle is complete, do you lift a glass to your lips to take a drink?

Just trying to get a handle on how far the half full goes....

 

[Buster]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I don't know about Birch, but I wash my glasses with the bottoms up and when the're clean, I refill with whatever beverage suits me at the time..so I guess you don't know how to load a dishwasher from what I see...

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Anytime the NYSE breadth MCSUM turns up from below -1000 has led to intermediatre term rallies. I think we will continue to rally up until Christmas - oil is now at $123.29 and dropping, GDP may come in at better than 2%, new home sales are improving, existing home sales are improving, and existing home prices are going up - this all sounds like the housing correction is finding a stable bottom. Durable goods are positive and the dollar has finally found stability. The stock market always leads the economy and I believe this nine month correction is over. Better times are ahead but the bears will continue to try and scare the uninitiated - be right and sit tight. I'm going to save the rest of my buying until Monday just incase we get more downside - the cheaper the better.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

And I'm doing the same thing now that I did back then - trying to buy myself into happiness with many golden prices.

Birch, the more I hear this stuff the more I wonder if you're running out of your liquidable assets - your cash reserve.

I honestly don't want to know how much that is - and would not advise acknowledging it...

but do you maintain a fairly good cash reserve??

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I forgot to answer the glass question. Personally I never use a glass unless I'm in a restaurant - at home I prefer a tall styrofoam cup with ice. And I use it all week, no need to throw good styrofoam away. At work I take heat for never washing my coffee cup - I just can't part with the flavor ring. And when I came back from my Vietnam tours I didn't wear under wear for a year - it just didn't feel right. Is that more than you wanted to know? My favorite book is the Hite Report by Sherry Hite.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steadygain,

I got $500K in the banks in the form of CDs. But I'm totally liquid accept for five acres of land - a phone call can dump my 300 stocks at a moments notice. And I don't plan to sell the homestead which is paid for - so I can assume mucho risk because I'm married to my own inhouse banker. It's time to close my eyes and hold my nose and if it stinks I want to buy it for safe keeping. Twelve months from now I'll smell like a rose.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That's wonderful !!! I mean that is super great.

Sorry man, sometimes I wonder if you're saving a decent supply to have on hand - but now I know

I guess being in FL with the storms - all the more had me concerned.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Taking a look at the two year chart of the utilities we see that it is the only one out of the transports and Dow industrials that has not broken below its main uptrend line. It is the utilities that start of the whole process. In other words they have to go on to put in new highs before the other two indices will follow. Given the hugh sell off it has held up remarkably well and is trading well above its long term uptrend line. The chances of it testing the bottom of the channel formation at 460 are less than 40% right now. Another bullish factor is that it has not broken below the top of the current channel formation (495-515) despite the massive sell off in the markets."

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10838.htm

This link my friends is a keeper for the future.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Back to basics: Compounding simply means that you can earn interest on your principal investment amount, as well as earn interest on top of interest. The power of compounding can make an investment grow much faster than would otherwise have been the case, and is obviously based on the assumption that interest or dividends are reinvested in the same asset. It is time in the market, and not market timing that counts."

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10844.htm

My oceanic account now has 296 individual stocks with the majority being dividend payers. Waiting for the next secular rally to float my boat, but until then I'm moving money around and buying more loveable and adorable wall flowers while they are unappreciated. I regard myself as the saviour of the down trodden. Snort.

 

[Buster]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

HAPPY BIRTHDAY Birch old man..and many profitable more

Oh, and pinch to grow an inch (somewhere)

 

[nnuut]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Happy BD Birchtree, Darn I didn't know you are such a YOUNGSTER!View attachment 4352

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Happy Birthday! Enjoy some of that money. Take a vacation or something!

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Happy Birthday Birchtree - and may you have many more - filled with great health and tons of wealth.

I pondered on something you'd said earlier quite a bit over the weekend and it really helps me understand your view of Carter and the subsequent decision to go Republician.

He granted "no recourse" for those who refused to serve in the Military and fled the country - making you have to fight twice as hard. That's understandable - and I can honestly appreciate your perspective. The Marines are way more grounded with the proper mindset and therefore you probably saw everyone as fairly worthy of doing their part and making it count.

In my situation the great majority viewed their training as the extreme proof of their readiness and not as exercises to draw from in order to have the right mindset. The main goal was to "be cool and fit in"; not to be a soldier. The ones least prepared were the first to die when battle was underway; I appreciate anyone who made an effort to be a soldier Birch - but their main contribution to our country was by setting the example for the rest of how NOT TO BE.

Our Company had a code "The Yellow Die First". These were the uniformed individuals who snapped under pressure, who freaked out and decided to run away.

I know this is a really deep subject and honestly Birchtree - I'm not trying to burden you down or annoy you - it's just my view of these guys is totally the opposite of yours. I'd a thousand times rather have them go to Canada than have them forced to the slaughter. At least they knew they didn't have (and probably would not have obtained the needed mindset). So from my perspective it would have been a waste of lives, a waste of supplies, and I'd have been way better off without them. It's hard enough trying to make a "real soldier" out of the able and willing - let alone those who want nothing to do with it.

Anyway - I had to throw that out - just to get it off my chest and not as a challenge to you.

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Happy Birthday Birchtree! I used to laugh at the saying "slow and steady, wins the race." But, your philosphy on buy & hold has really shown me some things to consider when dealing with the market. I've focused more on the currency market as I have been achieving 3-4% a week without a lot of effort. But my eggs are not all in that basket and it has been refreshing to get performance there than in any Fund in TSP.

Thanks for your input, it is as valuable as the returns I get!

Not your #1 fan, but close.

Frixxxx

 

[luv2read]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Happy Birthday Birchy!

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

happy birthday big tree, may you have many more to come
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[poolman]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Happy Birthday!!!! Birchtree