Birchtree's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The markets suck today and it has us all on edge.

It's like Bipolar Extremes

Yesterday - Mania - Anyone already in were at one of their highest heights and for anyone like me who tried to jump in on a good thing expecting some enthusiam to extend WERE very grateful we jumped in as it was getting started.

Today - Severe Depression - for those who were in (nothing gained and nothing lost) but for anyone hoping for even a remnant of extended "positive vibes" - they got Major Burned.

Bailing now means NO MORE ITFs this month - so - not a good way to start the weekend.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I was in at Dow 11,800 in March and I'll still be in at Dow 11,800 come sometime in June. I'll just keep reinvesting my healthy dividends and DCAing my C fund. My last purchase was $15.65 so perhaps this time it will be a little cheaper - way to go.

 

[DCguy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think it had taken about 4-5 months to drop from 13400 to about 11800 during the subprime crisis, but I see that it had only taken less than a month to drop from 13200 to 12280.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Boy I wish I could cut and run - but I'm trying to stay creative and long. We still have bottoms above bottoms in most indexes - today only balances out yesterday so not that much damage. I say let oil prices run - I own drillers, refining, oil field equipment, natural gas and nat gas storage - let'em bring on the pain. I own trains, train repair, train builders, and train track manufacturers. I own utilities to include nuclear and most anything it takes to build a new nuclear plant to include cement. Let the price of food increase - I own commodity stocks, grocers, fertilizers, farm equipment and other related industrial equipment to include irrigation stocks - even lawn mower and small engine stocks. I'm covered to either make it or break it. It's on the line and it's staying there. Snort. The only thing I apparently don't own is solar and wind.

This post is different from the normal snort out of you. Especially the first line. The rest is defensive--"I'm well off so I will be fine". I know you're not bearish until 2010 (Farrell said 2011 recently), but are you getting less bullish? Are you actually wishing you could sell and wait for a crash?

 

[nnuut]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birchtree is this really you?

Buffett's big bet

The celebrated investor wagers a tidy sum that even carefully chosen hedge funds won't return more than the market over time.

By Carol J. Loomis, senior editor at large

The critic of high investment fees has put his money where his mouth is.

(Fortune Magazine) -- Will a collection of hedge funds, carefully selected by experts, return more to investors over the next 10 years than the S&P 500?
That question is now the subject of a bet between Warren Buffett, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, and Protégé Partners LLC, a New York City money management firm that runs funds of hedge funds - in other words, a firm whose existence rests on its ability to put its clients' money into the best hedge funds and keep it out of the underperformers.
You can guess which party is taking which side.
Protégé has placed its bet on five funds of hedge funds - specifically, the averaged returns that those vehicles deliver net of all fees, costs, and expenses.
On the other side, Buffett, who has long argued that the fees that such "helpers" as hedge funds and funds of funds command are onerous and to be avoided has bet that the returns from a low-cost S&P 500 index fund sold by Vanguard will beat the results delivered by the five funds that Protégé has selected.[more]
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/04/news/newsmakers/buffett_bet.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008060908

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Something to remember - stock prices in the past have really only topped out during times in which the dollar was rising and not falling. With all of the gloom and doom out there, there are some 85% of the people still out there that still pay their debts on time - I'm one of them. Some Chinese banks have signed agreements with the SEC that allows them to buy equities for their individual clients. They've already spent $7.1 Billion of an allotted $50 billion - but so far they remain cautious. Just what if the Chinese were smarter than we are and want to own S&P companies while they are truly undervalued - could they be that prescient, a harbinger of things to come. The only thing that matters is exactly how much capital there is out there for (possible) investment. Stocks prices are still based on earnings, not just domestic ones, but in total. We have had a nice cleansing for a trending move higher. The RA A/D line is really compressed and is ready to blow. Of course it was compressed last week too.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The DJTA is of prime importance as a barometer of future anticipated economic activity. As such, the DJTA lends itself to predicting the onset of periods of economic expansion and contraction."

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2008/0604.html

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If you overlay a chart of the S&P and transports during the period from 2000 to 2002, you will see that it is not uncommon for the transports to make a run, or false breakout, while leaving the S&P behind.

I'm not drawing any conclusion except that it is not a foregone conclusion that a bear market is over when the transports appear quite strong.

 

[love-to-bike]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Since we've shied away from politics for a bit, how about we get back on board? Anyone missing $23 billion (hint: an Administration gag order prevents us from the courts talking about it)?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7444083.stm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Whichever way you look at it, food prices are going to stay high for years to come. And any weather disruptions will only add to the problems by causaing price spikes to unbelievable levels. From an investment perspective, I suggest that you consider allocating a portion of your funds to companies involved in agribusiness (seed, fertilizer, specialty chemicals and farm equipment manufacturers). Although, they have risen a lot in the past 2 years, I suspect they will continue to produce stellar returns in the future." My positions are essentially built and I've been slowly peeling off profits to invest in banks and housing related stocks. My position in Mosaic (MOS) at $143.00 is starting to burn a hole in my pocket, but I want to hold the primary position waiting for a split - trying to remain creative on this one.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/saxena/2008/0606.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The ag stocks were up again in a deeply down market today: AGU $100.13 +7.97 and MOS $149.63 +5.72. I'm just going to let these profits run. They'll help keep the pain moderate. I believe we have been putting in the 40 week lows and are primed to resume the rally.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=159097&postcount=2869
"We'll wait on SPX 1437 to solidify the bottom."

On May 19th the S&P hit 1440. Given the recent downturn, do you still think the bottom has been put in? Or would you at least say the probability has lowered since then? I will give it to you...it actually hit that level and I did not think it would. If I remember correctly, the ole P&F chart had a "bullish price objective" near that 1440 level.

Recent P&F charts now show a bearish price objective near 1230. Food for thought.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$SPX,PLTCDANRBO

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

IMHO the market is ending a decline, not starting one. An SPX of 1437 close would definitely solidify the bottom for me. Sentiment shows an overly bearish background. From a contrary point of view (and I am a contrarian), this is a positive that is indicative of a market bottom, not a top. A lot of technicals are once again back to historucal oversold buy zones. So far, I think the May-June correction is a normal one. No panic here although many chicletts are nervous and heading for the lily pad - and that is their choice. It would appear I've gained another nemesis - I collect these avengers you know - may they all eat tofu and stay healthy. The leadership of the market is still intact (energy, materials, agriculture) and, in addition to having achieved oversold sentiment and momentum indicators, the correction has not yet even retraced 61.8% of the March-May rally. That level is 1327 on the SPX, which is right in line with important chart support at the mid-April low. If the S&P were to break through 1320-1327, the likelihood is that the worst case would be a challenge of the 1300 area. This weakness of recent weeks may actually serve to create a stronger base than that provided by the January-March formation. Stand back and take a look. We did get some help from the financial sector today and a correction in oil may be the needed catalyst for an upside reversal. So far in 2008, the S&P 500 Energy has gained 6.7%, while the S&P 500 Materials is up 4.1%. The other day I saw a reading of 33% for S&P 500 stocks above their 50 day moving averages, that's down from 63% a month ago.

Now for a sad story. As an investor searching for credibility I realize that I have an Achilles' heel - I don't like to take profits. The last time I looked the gift horse in the mouth I liquidated my AKS position - and have now left $120K on the golden table - but I won't complain too loudly because I made some very nice purchases with the profit I did take - there are many special wall flowers now in the portfolio and many are appreciating in value. The reason I bring this up now is that I'm slowly peeling off my Mosaic and it hurts like hell and it just keeps going higher now with MOS at $153.31 +5.82 today. I'm out some at $94, $110, $122, and $131 and possibly some more at the end of the month. It's easy for me to shop at the bottom of the well looking for value - but very difficult to sell at the potential tops on the way up - many banks however are waiting. My LNN Lindsay Manufacturing Co. is at $125.82 +11.51 and my AGU Agrium is at $103.55 +3.65 - now what would you do there Mr. Traffic Dog? - providing you were fortunate enough to have this problem.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

With the potential this market may have going forward in the next two weeks I could not sit in the G fund holding 56,000 shares and watch the gains pass me by.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

No panic here although many chicletts are nervous and heading for the lily pad - and that is their choice.

You just can't help yourself.

By "chicklets" one can only assume you mean shivering little hatchlings.. unwise in the ways of investing, and ever so fearfull, having no experience to draw upon themselves.

I, on the other hand commend them.... even when they swing and miss like the mighty Casey... for they are laying it on the line.... in the arena ...the crucible. They don't have a Tugboat or Oceanic account. Most have only their TSP with all the well known constraints.

Forgive me if I'm reading too much into the lily pad put downs. That's my only real source of irritation.

Well... that and...
If you were to leave out all extra curricular account references, you would simply be a an affable bloak who is almost always wrong.

Live well and be heathy..... I've no interest in being a "nemesis".

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well I'm not always wrong - you might review some history. I use the lily pad references because the automated tracker is based on competition - and so far the chicletts are doing better than I am. My tugboat account is my TSP account. We have a long year to go and most of the G funders will undoubtedly end in the lower half before all is said and done. Didn't you defend me one time previously when I was in the school yard with DMA? I think that was you - you wrote a very funny poem if I remember. Anyway, if you don't want to be an avenger we can just agree not to agree and you can stay irritated. As a buy and holder I think it hilarious when the chicletts scurry the way they do. No one else seems to take offense - well if not an avenger then perhaps a guardian. What do you think about the fellow with 56,000 shares of the G fund - with no IFTs left to move back into stocks before the end of the month - squirm time.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

No one else seems to take offense -

You're right about that...... it must be me.
Carry on.

PS- It must be an anthropomorhism thing...... since you never sell, you are the market. .... and I am Don Quixote.

 

[Silverbird]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

:nuts::worried: I know I'm a Chicklett, I'm a birdeen, see in the corner? No offense taken at all. In my defense, watching a whole slew of TSP'ers riding the 1999-2002 roller coaster and losing their shirts in C had a big influence on me. Had they stayed on into 2003-5 they would have re-gained their losses, but some wanted to retire sooner than that and ate their losses, and a lot of others bailed with double digit %age losses.

In the long run, Birch, you are right, and I respect you for it. A seven year cycle, though, is too long for my Birdeen heart to take it. :worried:

 

[hessian]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well I rarely weigh in with unpleasantries, but I must say, I DO take offense, and want to say first, THANK YOU, Traffic Dog for your opinions and perspective.

And to you Birch, I must say, that you continue to provide NO value, to this board -as you maintain, and continue to maintain, the exact same market leaning (permabull), that does none of us any good!! Any folks following your advice would be showing the same results as you show in your Automated Tracker (current #133 @ -6.83). BTW, being in any of the L-Funds would have given any of us better Results!!!

I do not know about your alledged, "oceanic or other accounts, that you say you have (who really knows), all I can see is results posted. All I can say as, I suppose, being one of the "chicklets," that you are about as offensive -and useless in your advice as I can imagine.
I therefore I must say I cannot understand how your board rating is as high as it is - And, that I also, personally, feel privledged to be considered in the "chicklet" category -that you so easily and conveniently seem to put down!

Most of us here though, are intelligent enough to understand, that some day, some month, some year, some decade, that your calls will actually come out correct (since maintaining the exact same BULL position), and of course then we'll all expect to hear the proud chanting, ...see I told you so. :laugh:

 

[alevin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I know I'm a Chicklett, ...A seven year cycle, though, is too long for me..... :worried:

Yeah Me, I'm one of those TSPers Silverbird refers to, who rode out the entire 2000-2003 cycle in C and just barely recovered by now, sort of. My "tugboat" FERS account won't be near big enough for me to retire on, even forecasting 11-14 years from now, if I just did the buyandhold approach like I did the last go-round. Just can't afford that kind of RISK of insufficient growth, so yeah I'ma chicklet, and not doing totally rotten these days, now that I'm finally learning what it takes to actively manage my account, even tho I take pratfalls now and then.:toung: Gotta learn how to crawl before I can get good at running. Or learn how to swim (by doing) before I get really good at swimming upriver over waterfalls (or market falls), or any other obstacles, like FRTIB :nuts:.

Birch, I'm not one to ride you, I appreciate having diversity of viewpoints on the site, it encourages me to keep learning and checking my assumptions about strategy and everything else I'm inspired to learn through other people here.