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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Standard and Poor's has had a habit of adding stocks to the index that are in sectors that are doing well at the time. Given this trend, it comes as no surprise that the sector which has seen the greatest percentage increase in the number of its members over the last five years is Energy. In 2003, the sector bottomed out with 25 members. Since then its number of members has increased to 35, which represents an increase of 40%.
Standard and Poor's has had a habit of adding stocks to the index that are in sectors that are doing well at the time. Given this trend, it comes as no surprise that the sector which has seen the greatest percentage increase in the number of its members over the last five years is Energy. In 2003, the sector bottomed out with 25 members. Since then its number of members has increased to 35, which represents an increase of 40%.
Buster
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 109
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
It means we are presently over bought and everyone and their sister will be waiting for a pause to refresh. But things can stay over bought for a long time and the pauses may happen like Friday where they happen intra-day and then recover. I'm going to be buying up my selections next week - if I'm early no harm is done I still get the dividend income.
It means we are presently over bought and everyone and their sister will be waiting for a pause to refresh. But things can stay over bought for a long time and the pauses may happen like Friday where they happen intra-day and then recover. I'm going to be buying up my selections next week - if I'm early no harm is done I still get the dividend income.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
This market might just rip me a new one this coming week. The ratio adjusted NYSE A/D line is now up against trend line resistance having successfully tested its 200 day EMA (1% Trend) over the last couple of weeks. The battle between light and darkness over the next week or two will more than likely dictate price direction for the next two months to stay and play - the building momentum of which continues to favor a bullish resolution.
This market might just rip me a new one this coming week. The ratio adjusted NYSE A/D line is now up against trend line resistance having successfully tested its 200 day EMA (1% Trend) over the last couple of weeks. The battle between light and darkness over the next week or two will more than likely dictate price direction for the next two months to stay and play - the building momentum of which continues to favor a bullish resolution.
vectorman
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 21
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Many of my co-workers who have been sitting the G fund for the last few months are now itching to get in. Any decent pull back is all they're waitng for, unless they talk themselves out of it. Pointing out once again how they're better off in the G, until things get better. The mentality from 2000 to 2002 was stay in the market because it will come back up. Now these same people are staying out of the market because they believe it will continue to fall...:blink:
Many of my co-workers who have been sitting the G fund for the last few months are now itching to get in. Any decent pull back is all they're waitng for, unless they talk themselves out of it. Pointing out once again how they're better off in the G, until things get better. The mentality from 2000 to 2002 was stay in the market because it will come back up. Now these same people are staying out of the market because they believe it will continue to fall...:blink:
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Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
New all-time high in the DJTA today at 5514.78 - where is that stinking bear market? DJUA will be next and then the DJIA will follow. The NYA is pushing 9700 on its way to 10,300. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is NOT selling a position that's gone against you - the hardest thing to do is let your profits run. The inexhaustible global demand for oil, grain, and other commodities has kept ships that haul the stuff busy, and shippers, in turn, have been ratcheting up prices and raking in profits. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of shipping dry commodities, has nearly doubled since late January, and Thursday hit a record high. No wonder my EXM went up 12 points last week. That this has happened amid a U.S. slowdown suggests that the U.S. economy is no longer capable of derailing the rest of the world. Go gett'em Ferdinand - Snort.
New all-time high in the DJTA today at 5514.78 - where is that stinking bear market? DJUA will be next and then the DJIA will follow. The NYA is pushing 9700 on its way to 10,300. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is NOT selling a position that's gone against you - the hardest thing to do is let your profits run. The inexhaustible global demand for oil, grain, and other commodities has kept ships that haul the stuff busy, and shippers, in turn, have been ratcheting up prices and raking in profits. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of shipping dry commodities, has nearly doubled since late January, and Thursday hit a record high. No wonder my EXM went up 12 points last week. That this has happened amid a U.S. slowdown suggests that the U.S. economy is no longer capable of derailing the rest of the world. Go gett'em Ferdinand - Snort.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'm not concerned about the next cyclical correction, I'm concentrating my energies in looking for the top.
"My intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator turned up at the March lows just as the dumb money indicators that I follow were recording the most bearish sentiment readings since the 1998 4-year cycle low. By this measure we saw even more bearish sentiment readings surrounding the March 2008 low then we did at the 2002 4-year cycle low. The extended move into the 4-year cycle low had likely found its mark. (Birchtree believes the 4-year cycle bottomed in July '06). The last 4-year cycle stretched an advance for 60 consecutive months, finally peaking in October 2007. The current 4-year cycle should ideally contract slightly and is shaping up to potentially top much, much sooner than the last 4-year cycle. If this occurs, the statistical implications would be disastrous."
http://www.financialsense.com/market/wrapup.htm by Tim Wood 5/16/08
I'm not concerned about the next cyclical correction, I'm concentrating my energies in looking for the top.
"My intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator turned up at the March lows just as the dumb money indicators that I follow were recording the most bearish sentiment readings since the 1998 4-year cycle low. By this measure we saw even more bearish sentiment readings surrounding the March 2008 low then we did at the 2002 4-year cycle low. The extended move into the 4-year cycle low had likely found its mark. (Birchtree believes the 4-year cycle bottomed in July '06). The last 4-year cycle stretched an advance for 60 consecutive months, finally peaking in October 2007. The current 4-year cycle should ideally contract slightly and is shaping up to potentially top much, much sooner than the last 4-year cycle. If this occurs, the statistical implications would be disastrous."
http://www.financialsense.com/market/wrapup.htm by Tim Wood 5/16/08
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
English please Birch - what the hell??
Are you saying it looks like we're approaching the TOP. That we may be getting there too fast and if that happens "be prepared to bail".
This is the first time I've ever heard anything like this from you.
English please Birch - what the hell??
Are you saying it looks like we're approaching the TOP. That we may be getting there too fast and if that happens "be prepared to bail".
This is the first time I've ever heard anything like this from you.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
My top formation won't arrive until later 2010 with a bottom nesting in October if one follows the last 4-year cycle which bottome in July '06. I was quoting Tim Wood who has essentially been wrong on his assesment of the 4-year cycle but continues not to give in to the rational market. I like to read him to clue me in to how the other side thinks. No, I'm actually way out on a limb predicting a Dow of 17,500 by the end of the year plus or minus a month or two.
My top formation won't arrive until later 2010 with a bottom nesting in October if one follows the last 4-year cycle which bottome in July '06. I was quoting Tim Wood who has essentially been wrong on his assesment of the 4-year cycle but continues not to give in to the rational market. I like to read him to clue me in to how the other side thinks. No, I'm actually way out on a limb predicting a Dow of 17,500 by the end of the year plus or minus a month or two.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Thanks Birch - honestly didn't want to go home without knowing what your feelings were. Appreciate it. Especially since I'm currently so Bullish myself.
Have a good one my friend.
Thanks Birch - honestly didn't want to go home without knowing what your feelings were. Appreciate it. Especially since I'm currently so Bullish myself.
Have a good one my friend.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
So Senator Edward Kennedy has a brain tumor - now that's karma isn't it. That slime ball should have drowned years ago instead of Mary Jo. Liberals operate off a two tier system - they view themselves better than anyone else. Now chastise me if you want but I speak my mind.
So Senator Edward Kennedy has a brain tumor - now that's karma isn't it. That slime ball should have drowned years ago instead of Mary Jo. Liberals operate off a two tier system - they view themselves better than anyone else. Now chastise me if you want but I speak my mind.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I still love ya Birch. Probably the biggest difference between us is that you see the Liberals (Dem) different from the Conservatives (Rep). Whereas I see them both pretty much the same. If Bush were the leader of another country and did the very same things he's done here - You would be the first to throw him in the eternal buring pit.
BTW I felt like I might go tinkel tots today - so ran to the outhouse and will now have to stay until June.
I still love ya Birch. Probably the biggest difference between us is that you see the Liberals (Dem) different from the Conservatives (Rep). Whereas I see them both pretty much the same. If Bush were the leader of another country and did the very same things he's done here - You would be the first to throw him in the eternal buring pit.
BTW I felt like I might go tinkel tots today - so ran to the outhouse and will now have to stay until June.
Buster
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 109
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Seems like a little bit too much politics, and not enough discussion of the markets today.
Pretty big drop today. Don't know if it means the beginning of a downward trend or just a brief dip.
I still have one unrestricted IFT left this month. Any recommendations?
Seems like a little bit too much politics, and not enough discussion of the markets today.
Pretty big drop today. Don't know if it means the beginning of a downward trend or just a brief dip.
I still have one unrestricted IFT left this month. Any recommendations?
Pill
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 5
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Thanks Pill. To late to get in COB today. I'll watch the early trading tomorrow morning. Still not sure about the markets. Much of today's business data suggest the Fed's top priority may become fighting inflation, which might cause stocks to go lower?
Thanks Pill. To late to get in COB today. I'll watch the early trading tomorrow morning. Still not sure about the markets. Much of today's business data suggest the Fed's top priority may become fighting inflation, which might cause stocks to go lower?
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