Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks for your thoughts Birch...I always ppreciate reading your posts. From my perspective, I am still worried about the price of oil. Somehow, I can't help but think that it's more of a mover and shaker ths time around than labor. I'm still not ready to jump in 100% stocks yet, and my other concern is that we still have Elliott wave theory to contend with..I hate being the "BEARer" of bad news..but I'm still not convinced the Bull market has taken control back..

FS
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

FogSailing said:
Thanks for your thoughts Birch...I always ppreciate reading your posts. From my perspective, I am still worried about the price of oil. Somehow, I can't help but think that it's more of a mover and shaker ths time around than labor. I'm still not ready to jump in 100% stocks yet, and my other concern is that we still have Elliott wave theory to contend with..I hate being the "BEARer" of bad news..but I'm still not convinced the Bull market has taken control back..

FS
Click to expand...

Agree with you Fog - because the escalating price of oil and other commodities permeates throughout so much of the economy, I don't see how this cannot cause a nasty inflation spike, which has generally been bad for the markets.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch - that is a beautiful chart on the last post.

Would be wonderful if this kind of trend could continue for awhile
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Investing in Banks - KBW Large Bank Index. We wish we knew how to reliably call bottoms. We don't know how to do that. However, we do have the ability to know when a fundamental situation is good enough for us to take a long-term position. It is not for the faint of heart, and shouldn't be a large part of the portfolio of any but a few who make large concentrated bets with both intention and conviction - and who are ready for the financial consequences if they are wrong." My daughter bought 52 toxic waste financials and materials in January'08 - so far so good with dividends and growth. "We would rather take this good enough oipportunity and then find that we could have gotten an even better opportunity by waiting, than to wait and miss the opportunity altogether."

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10247.htm
 
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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Now that was an interesting read but a tad to much in the shade. I prefer the light of an improving future.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Now that was an interesting read but a tad to much in the shade. I prefer the light of an improving future.
Click to expand...
So do I, Birch, so do I. But the truth is the truth. The question is, which truth do we believe?;)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
luv2read,

You can find most of the information you seek regarding your personal situation on the retirement thread - that information would be better suited to your questions and would offer details better than I could. I need to review some of the information myself.
Click to expand...
This is from a newsletter put out by my agency. Thanks to Birch, Silverbird and Lady for their help too!:)

How the TSP differs from the FERS Basic Annuity and the CSRS Basic Annuity
In contrast to the TSP, the FERS and CSRS basic annuities are defined benefits programs. This means that the benefits you receive from your FERS and CSRS annuity are based on your years of service and your salary, rather than on the amount of your contributions and earnings. Most contributions to these annuity programs are made by your agency on your behalf. Your contributions are mandatory, and law defines the amount you contribute. Your contributions are made by payroll deductions that your agency takes automatically from you paycheck. In addition to your FERS or CSRS annuity you may elect to contribute to TSP. TSP is different from the basic FERS and CSRS annuity because it is voluntary and you are able to elect the amount of money that is contributed. As a FERS employee, the TSP is an integral part of your retirement package. The FERS basic annuity, TSP and Social Security make up your entire FERS retirement. Your agency will contribute 1% automatically and will match up to an additional 4% of what you contribute to the TSP. As a CSRS employee, the TSP is a supplement to your annuity, you do not receive automatic or matching contributions.​
Click to expand...
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now. How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor. (No housing recession, only a crisis).

"Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old. Home sales peaked in July 2005. New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million. Housing starts have fallen more than 50%, and, adjusted for population growth, are back to the trough levels of 1982. Furthermore, residential construction is close to 15-year lows at 3.8% of GDP; by the fourth quarter of this year, it will probably hit the lowest level ever. So what's going to stop the housing decline? Very simply, the same thing that caused the bust: affordability.

In the past five major housing market corrections (and there were some big ones, such as in the early 1980s when home sales also fell by 50%-60% and prices fell 12%-15% in real terms), every time home sales bottomed, the pace of house-price declines halved within one or two months."

http://www.online.wsj.com/public/us
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The housing correction has been subtracting a full percentage point from GDP for almost two years now, which is very large for a sector that represents less than 5% of economic activity. The next question is: Even if home sales pick up, how can home prices stop falling with so many houses vacant and unsold? The flip but true answer: because they always do. Merrill says that Sovereign Wealth Funds could grow more than fourfold by 2011 surging from U.S. $1.9 trillion to U.S. $7.9 trillion. That's a lot of money to purchase global assets and I'm sure we'll see our share of buyouts coming. Right now the DJTA is only 99.08 points away from a new all-time high and the DJUA is only 38.78 points away from its own new all-time high. Bears should know better than to play on the tracks.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

VIX is now at 16.31. The S&P Energy and Materials indexes hit historic highs today. Something big is about to happen here with the bulls continuing to have the advantage right now. The fact that we have not paused is a strong indication of the tremendous levels of liquidity that continues to build. Looking at the N YSE breadth MCSUM we are only a couple of days away from directly challenging the all important October highs.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Something big is about to happen here with the bulls continuing to have the advantage right now. The fact that we have not paused is a strong indication of the tremendous levels of liquidity that continues to build.[/quote]


Excuse me Sir,
Are you aware that these comments fly in the face of the general trend; that you are going against the grain; more isolating yourself by taking this position??;)

Have a good night Birch - and congratulations on another winning day :cheesy::nuts: KA CHING KA CHING
Click to expand...
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

DCguy,

This is for you incase you read - when the Fed is at or near the end of cutting key interest rates, investors know this is historically one of the best times to buy stocks, because it usually precedes an upturn in the economy. This is largely why the stock market started to rebound in March and April. The market is omnipotent. We are coiling big time here and the bears have their backs against the wall (of worry) and it won't take much more to have the shorts cover with both hands. The VIX closed today at 16.31 - get ready for liftoff.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steadygain,

You must be a contrarian holding that smelly 100% C fund position - I can smell the superlative bull manure you've placed in your rose garden. The market can have a history making up day at any moment - and the buyers will flood in raising the volume to new records. I'm staying all summer and into the fall - I'm already anticipating the christmas rally.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Steadygain,

You must be a contrarian holding that smelly 100% C fund position - I can smell the superlative bull manure you've placed in your rose garden. The market can have a history making up day at any moment - and the buyers will flood in raising the volume to new records. I'm staying all summer and into the fall - I'm already anticipating the christmas rally.
Click to expand...

What about the addage "See you later in May come back in November" ?:cool:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
DCguy,

This is for you incase you read - when the Fed is at or near the end of cutting key interest rates, investors know this is historically one of the best times to buy stocks, because it usually precedes an upturn in the economy. This is largely why the stock market started to rebound in March and April. The market is omnipotent. We are coiling big time here and the bears have their backs against the wall (of worry) and it won't take much more to have the shorts cover with both hands. The VIX closed today at 16.31 - get ready for liftoff.
Click to expand...

thx, that explains it. I should have moved back in stock when I had the chance. I'm now not sure if I should jump back in tomorrow or on Monday. I'm still recovering my losses and am now considering going 100% C or S.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Frixxxx said:
What about the addage "See you later in May come back in November" ?:cool:
Click to expand...
um...sell in may and go away? I think that's been changed for this year....April-Nov will be up time...then election in Nov.;)

Or not...lol!:p
 
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